The Climate Change thread

[G.]

Well this will get your attention. Over the last 10 weeks the global sea ice numbers have gone where no one expected and not in a good way.

Looks like we managed to break the planet for real...



This data doesn't seem to match the NSIDC data. http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

You might have to play with it a bit, and select Antarctica, but the graph you posted is supposed to come from NSIDC data. Instead, it comes from Wipneus.

Wipneus is showing concentration, and the graph I linked shows extent, but the extent is based on concentration. You can click or hover on the 2016 line and get the daily concentration numbers. They don't match Wipneus.

What is a Wipneus? It's from the Nether-regions. :confused:

[cameraman]

This data doesn't seem to match the NSIDC data. http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

You might have to play with it a bit, and select Antarctica, but the graph you posted is supposed to come from NSIDC data. Instead, it comes from Wipneus.

Wipneus is showing concentration, and the graph I linked shows extent, but the extent is based on concentration. You can click or hover on the 2016 line and get the daily concentration numbers. They don't match Wipneus.

What is a Wipneus? It's from the Nether-regions. :confused:

That's because the graph I posted is the sum total of arctic and antarctic sea ice. The one you're looking at is only Arctic.

[G.]

That's because the graph I posted is the sum total of arctic and antarctic sea ice. The one you're looking at is only Arctic.:confused:
The graph you showed is Antarctic. The season matches the southern hemisphere.

On the NSIDC site, Click the little button thing to choose Antarctic.
Choose what years you want to be posted, or choose the 2nd page from the pivot table-like list, and hit "select_all"


I could be misinterpreting something, of course, but the plot doesn't agree with the data from NSIDC.

[cameraman]

:confused:
The graph you showed is Antarctic. The season matches the southern hemisphere.

On the NSIDC site, Click the little button thing to choose Antarctic.
Choose what years you want to be posted, or choose the 2nd page from the pivot table-like list, and hit "select_all"


I could be misinterpreting something, of course, but the plot doesn't agree with the data from NSIDC.

No it's global. the source is here:

https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/grf

The double hump nature of the graph is Antarctic in November and Arctic in June (peaks a little earlier but southern effects move that peak a little later in the year.)

Single pole data sets have only one peak/year

[G.]

No it's global. the source is here:

https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/grf

The double hump nature of the graph is Antarctic in November and Arctic in June (peaks a little earlier but southern effects move that peak a little later in the year.)

Single pole data sets have only one peak/year

You're right - brain fart.

[cameraman]

Well this will get your attention. Over the last 10 weeks the global sea ice numbers have gone where no one expected and not in a good way.

Looks like we managed to break the planet for real...

http://pbs.twimg.com/media/CxZMyw_UoAAhd75.jpg:large

Okay this is nuts. Compare the 18th to the first graph which is all of three days earlier.
The ice is currently melting at a rate equal to the fastest spring melts only issue being it should be increasing
The ice area is down by ~25% from average, off the better part of a million sq km in three days.

And yes they have been checking the instruments, in an oh **** what's wrong sort of way, and the instruments are just fine...

http://i260.photobucket.com/albums/ii35/Cynops/nsidc_global_area-11-18.png

[datachicane]

:eek:

[cameraman]

Kinda wondering where the line has been going so...

http://i260.photobucket.com/albums/ii35/Cynops/nsidc_global_extent-11-28.png

A flat line, didn't see that one coming:saywhat:

[Insomniac]

A flat line, didn't see that one coming:saywhat:

Maybe the satellite has a glitch? :) Although, I'm not sure what kind of glitch it could have and self correct.

[SteveH]

PAPER: ‘RECORD DROP IN GLOBAL TEMPERATURES AS EL NINO WARMING ENDS’
(http://www.climatedepot.com/2016/11/28/paper-record-drop-in-global-temperatures-as-el-nino-warming-ends/)


Global average temperatures over land have plummeted by more than 1C since the middle of this year – their biggest and steepest fall on record. According to satellite data, the late 2016 temperatures are returning to the levels they were at after the 1998 El Nino.

[nissan gtp]

PAPER: ‘RECORD DROP IN GLOBAL TEMPERATURES AS EL NINO WARMING ENDS’
(http://www.climatedepot.com/2016/11/28/paper-record-drop-in-global-temperatures-as-el-nino-warming-ends/)

climate denial site

[SteveH]

climate denial site

Maybe, I'm not familiar with the site, however this quote is included with some of the quote in bold.


‘The reason why this is such a warm record year is because of the long-term underlying trend, the cumulative effect of the long-term warming trend of our Earth,’ he said. This was ‘mainly caused’ by the emission of greenhouse gases by humans.

BBC News interview with Dr. Peter Stott (UK Met Office) on 2015 warm record: “The main reason that we have such warm temperatures is actually human-induced climate change. That’s the main factor. And then El Niño contributes a small amount on top.”

Obviously global trends aren't measured one year to the next. Not sure this article is promoting an agenda. It doesn't appear so.

[cameraman]

Maybe the satellite has a glitch? :) Although, I'm not sure what kind of glitch it could have and self correct.

Nope that data comes from numerous satellites. It's the planet that is glitching.

[cameraman]

Seems I need to pay closer attention. That last update was the Sea Ice Extent graph where the earlier ones were the Sea Ice Area graphs.

http://i260.photobucket.com/albums/ii35/Cynops/global_extent-161206.png


http://i260.photobucket.com/albums/ii35/Cynops/global_area-161206.png


So what's the difference beyond larger values on the extent graphs?

A simplified way to think of extent versus area is to imagine a slice of swiss cheese. Extent would be a measure of the edges of the slice of cheese and all of the space inside it. Area would be the measure of where there is cheese only, not including the holes. That is why if you compare extent and area in the same time period, extent is always bigger. A more precise explanation of extent versus area gets more complicated.

The TL:DR explanation is below.


Extent defines a region as “ice-covered” or “not ice-covered.” For each satellite data cell, the cell is said to either have ice or to have no ice, based on a threshold. The most common threshold (and the one NSIDC uses) is 15 percent, meaning that if the data cell has greater than 15 percent ice concentration, the cell is considered ice covered; less than that and it is said to be ice free. Example: Let’s say you have three 25 kilometer (km) x 25 km (16 miles x 16 miles) grid cells covered by 16% ice, 2% ice, and 90% ice. Two of the three cells would be considered “ice covered,” or 100% ice. Multiply the grid cell area by 100% sea ice and you would get a total extent of 1,250 square km (482 square miles).

Area takes the percentages of sea ice within data cells and adds them up to report how much of the Arctic is covered by ice; area typically uses a threshold of 15%. So in the same example, with three 25 km x 25 km (16 miles x 16 miles) grid cells of 16% ice, 2% ice, and 90% ice, multiply the grid cell areas that are over the 15% threshold by the percent of sea ice in those grid cells, and add it up. You would have a total area of 662 square km (255.8 square miles).

Scientists at NSIDC report extent because they are cautious about summertime values of ice concentration and area taken from satellite sensors. To the sensor, surface melt appears to be open water rather than water on top of sea ice. So, while reliable for measuring area most of the year, the microwave sensor is prone to underestimating the actual ice concentration and area when the surface is melting. To account for that potential inaccuracy, NSIDC scientists rely primarily on extent when analyzing melt-season conditions and reporting them to the public. That said, analyzing ice area is still quite valuable. Given the right circumstances, background knowledge, and scientific information on current conditions, it can provide an excellent sense of how much ice there really is “on the ground.”

My take is as long as they are consistent with the methods the year to year trends are going to be the same and that trend is the important bit.

As to the numbers themselves, this year's numbers are down roughly 4,000,000 sq km. How big is that? The total area of the United States is 9,833,517 sq km, Australia is 7,692,024 and India is 3,166,391. Kinda annoying that there is no nation in that 4.5 million sq km area gap between Australia and India...

Ya can't use TL : DR on this board cause it gets smiled... TL:DR

[Gnam]

As to the numbers themselves, this year's numbers are down roughly 4,000,000 sq km. How big is that? The total area of the United States is 9,833,517 sq km, Australia is 7,692,024 and India is 3,166,391. Kinda annoying that there is no nation in that 4.5 million sq km area gap between Australia and India...
Give ISIS a few years to reorganize North Africa: Libya, Algeria, and Tunisia add up to 4,305,610 sq km.

[cameraman]

PAPER: ‘RECORD DROP IN GLOBAL TEMPERATURES AS EL NINO WARMING ENDS’
(http://www.climatedepot.com/2016/11/28/paper-record-drop-in-global-temperatures-as-el-nino-warming-ends/)

Them & Breitbart really pissed off the Weather Channel

Note to Breitbart: Earth Is Not Cooling, Climate Change Is Real and Please Stop Using Our Video to Mislead Americans (https://weather.com/news/news/breitbart-misleads-americans-climate-change?cm_ven=T_WX_CD_120616_2)

They went to town on them. Lesson for the day, do not piss off the Weather Channel. :rofl:

Nice data set though.

https://dsx.weather.com//util/image/w/enso-graph.jpg?v=ap&w=980&h=551&api=7db9fe61-7414-47b5-9871-e17d87b8b6a0

[dando]

Global warming my ass. :irked:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S5eWYMJhZko

:gomer: :\

[Gnam]

I kinda want to see the lost ancient city in Antarctica that's buried under all the ice. Maybe they have a cure for global warming. ;)

[cameraman]

Welp we've done it, by global sea ice area at least, the lowest numbers ever recorded and it's very safe to say the lowest numbers in the last thousand years. The extent numbers haven't quite hit record territory yet but give it a week or so...

http://i260.photobucket.com/albums/ii35/Cynops/1-13%20area.png

http://i260.photobucket.com/albums/ii35/Cynops/1-13%20extent.png

[nrc]

Georgia Tech has a tenure track faculty position open in climate science.

http://www.eas.gatech.edu/employment

Judith Curry, climate change hero turned apostate has retired from academia citing her growing disenchantment with universities, the academic field of climate science, and scientists.

https://judithcurry.com/2017/01/03/jc-in-transition/#more-22651

[Napoleon]

For third year in a row Earth sets temperature record (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/18/science/earth-highest-temperature-record.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur)

[cameraman]

https://www.epa.gov/climatechange

Take a look now because the word is that it will be turned off tomorrow, permanently.

[TravelGal]

https://www.epa.gov/climatechange

Take a look now because the word is that it will be turned off tomorrow, permanently.

:mad: I never did like ostriches. Nasty creatures. TravelGuy was bitten by an emu once. OK, that's funny. This isn't.

[cameraman]

Welp they've changed the plan. They are not going to take it down just this:


We’re looking at scrubbing it up a bit, putting a little freshener on it, and getting it back up to the public, we’re taking a look at everything on there"

Seems they ran into a bit of reality where there are legal constraints regarding places where people do business on the web page. There are specific areas of the site where you obtain permits and perform other mandated government reporting that cannot come down.

Also the "scrubbing" of the scientific data will be done by politicians.

[Insomniac]

Welp they've changed the plan. They are not going to take it down just this:



Seems they ran into a bit of reality where there are legal constraints regarding places where people do business on the web page. There are specific areas of the site where you obtain permits and perform other mandated government reporting that cannot come down.

Also the "scrubbing" of the scientific data will be done by politicians.

I for one always thought what was lacking were alternative facts.

[cameraman]

yeah well as Brandolini’s law states, the amount of energy needed to refute ******** is of an order of magnitude bigger than that needed to produce it.

[Napoleon]

Also the "scrubbing" of the scientific data will be done by politicians.

Moments ago from the AP "BREAKING: Trump administration mandating EPA scientific studies, data undergo review by political staff before public release."

That system worked great for the CCCP and gave them record grain yields and steel production every year.

[SteveH]

I guess this will pass for a weather thread….

https://twitter.com/PaulPoteet/status/1606044830303297536?s=20&t=1w5TL4lS8sp70kNhwUsNxw

All that is missing is Jim Cantore standing knee deep in snow

[nrc]

Baby, it's cold outside. I was sitting here last night actually watching the temperature dropping by the minute. Everyone stay warm.

[cameraman]

I'm quite happy to be on the western side of the Rockies watching that weather blow east...

[SteveH]

http://hint.fm/wind/

[SteveH]

Interesting service
https://www.hailpoint.com/

[datachicane]

Interesting service
https://www.hailpoint.com/


https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/pw/AL9nZEUKTe4mXcB40UsADS8MzyPJDaQtJnYRKM2r7FYj8TpOfi 7L7uk3PJrYmVFjxHPNpQ_cHvCtHzCeN4htuYkRPvdckrhvNnsv 2F2e_3moR9ze9AUJZLQPBjJYLY3xoq0tF4U_gGnk_9c7UCBCrI 89132wIA=w1164-h658-no?authuser=0

[SteveH]

Deep dive
http://www.wright-weather.com/