Say, How 'bout This WEATHER?

[Andrew Longman]

Looks like you'll have to burn the books.:rofl:

My folks are depression babies and from MI and IA and taught my how wrong it was for the Nazis to burn books. All I know is my philosophy, history and racing books better be home when I get there. If not, then I failed with my family at the lesson my folks taught me. :gomer:

Now here in Texas book burning still a sport for some. I hope a decided minority. Mostly it seems the entire energy industry is losing its collective mind because they are realizing that the unconventional reserves (I.e., cracking) they all bought are not producing as expected and now they know they paid too much for the reserves. A
Holy crap moment unless at least one company gets really smart about has to harvest a lot more from some of these reserves.

There is still plenty of carbon flowing but the fear is more about how much the industry will have to write down for the reserves they bought.

That enough OT for ya!

[Tifosi24]

:rofl:

My folks are depression babies and from MI and IA and taught my how wrong it was for the Nazis to burn books. All I know is my philosophy, history and racing books better be home when I get there. If not, then I failed with my family at the lesson my folks taught me. :gomer:

Now here in Texas book burning still a sport for some. I hope a decided minority. Mostly it seems the entire energy industry is losing its collective mind because they are realizing that the unconventional reserves (I.e., cracking) they all bought are not producing as expected and now they know they paid too much for the reserves. A
Holy crap moment unless at least one company gets really smart about has to harvest a lot more from some of these reserves.

There is still plenty of carbon flowing but the fear is more about how much the industry will have to write down for the reserves they bought.

That enough OT for ya!

All the power outages in PA will probably help our energy prices the next couple days. Apparently Chicago is expecting to use a ton of power and gas because it is triggering warnings in MN and IA for no real reason, because temperatures aren't into "warning" territory.

To the OT, the lower than expected production from these unconventional sources is not wholly unexpected. I remember attending a tele-conference in 2008ish discussing unconventional production. At that time, folks presented that the wells produced differently than regular wells. The unconventional wells tended to produce big out of the gate, but then dropped off quickly, while conventional wells have a more linear decrease in production over a longer period. They assumed, however, that over a 10-year period the two well types would produce roughly the same amount. This would lead me to believe that the assumption might not be correct.

[Andrew Longman]

Right. And unlike a conventional well where the challenge is drilling the well in just the right place to drain it fast and completely, in unconventional reserves the assumption out of the gate is they will require literally hundreds or maybe thousands of wells, some maybe right next to each other, to get all the hydrocarbon out. But the science for setting an optimal drilling strategy is pretty immature and the reserves where bought at a price that assumed they would figure it out. So far not so much. Plus conservation effort and a slow economic recovery is keeping demand and prices in check.

Us north easterners who mostly heat with oil are thankful for that this cold winter. There. Are we back on topic with that? :)

[Elmo T]

Yea.. ICE! :rolleyes:

The good news is our power stayed on when 95% of the town was out. :thumbup:

http://i59.tinypic.com/28auj5t.jpg

[Mr. Vengeance]

-34C, (-30F) this morning. "Cold enough to freeze the nuts offa steel bridge".

This fair-weather forester's staying inside today.

[cameraman]

Maybe. The forecast calls for mountain snow/valley rain for the next 5 days. Up to 60" in the mountains. It can't snow hard enough or long enough right now. All we can do is hope that the forecasts are correct.

[SteveH]

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/chi-coldest-winter-in-three-decades-and-counting-20140207,0,4566211.story


Friday is the 22nd day this winter that we've seen temperatures at zero or below, more than the past five winters combined, according to the Chicago Weather Center. Typically, only seven such readings have occurred by now.

[Elmo T]

So how bad was it here?

Baltimore Gas & Energy's mobile command truck operating at my public works garage:

http://i60.tinypic.com/34t30xk.jpg

Alabama Power's command truck at my administration building:

http://i60.tinypic.com/25sr675.jpg

Also in town: ComEd (Chicago), Georgia Power, and United Illuminating (CT)

[Gnam]

Someone finally opened the taps. Been raining in NorCal for the past 48 hours. :D
Every time the sky gets lighter and I think it's going to stop, it rains harder.

[Napoleon]

Someone finally opened the taps. Been raining in NorCal for the past 48 hours. :D
Every time the sky gets lighter and I think it's going to stop, it rains harder.

What do you need, something like 3 months of it doing that to replenish your water supply?

[Gnam]

Nah, two months would be plenty. These grey skies are already starting to bum me out. :tony:

[Tifosi24]

Well, we are at 40 days this winter with a low temperature below zero (that is at the airport, it might be even more in my part of town) and the next two days will easily reach that distinction, so we will push it to 42. The more depressing part is that we are at 15 days in a row with a low temperature below zero, and it is forecasted to be -15F the next two mornings. Winter doesn't normally bother me, but it has been so cold this winter, that it has been difficult to do anything outside, like nordic skiing.

[NismoZ]

I can't beat that, only 25+ below zero days here, -8 again this morning but it looks like it might be, COULD BE, a newwww COLD RECORD! At this stage I think we should just GO for it! Amazing how warm it feels when running the dog in single digits...but the sun is out with no wind. Balmy! Wind chills at -23 by morning, actually a -43 a few weeks ago! Be ok if I never experience THAT again! Fun living through history, huh?:\

[TrueBrit]

I've had more than enough of this winter... woke up this morning and it was minus whatever-the-heck again...the snow has now turned brown and crappy but won't start melting until the end of this week when the temps might get above freezing...But it could be worse, I could be back home in the UK where apparently half the country is under water...

[TravelGal]

So you're saying I should quit the b!tchin because it's windy? How am I supposed to enjoy my 68 degrees if it's windy? I ask you, how? :gomer: :evil laugh:

[Elmo T]

Parts of town STILL without power. Central Maine Power here now as Alabama and Georgia Power had to bolt for their coming storm.

And for us? Why another 12-18" snow for Wed/Thur night. :thumbup:

[RaceGrrl]

I am actually enjoying this winter. Granted, Richard has been the one to shovel the driveway (and I'm really grateful for that) and some of the travel has been treacherous, but it's just so pretty. I'll take this over grey, cold and rainy winter days anytime. Even on grey days the snow makes it better.

Only real problem is our poor dogs- they can't take the cold so it's been tough getting them to go out and do their business. I even made little booties for them to protect their feet.

[cameraman]

The weather gods just executed the perfect storm over Utah. We got 3" of rain in the valleys, slowly over a couple days and the better part of 7" of water (in the form of snow) in the upper elevations of the watershed. 7" may not sound like all that much but that is 50% of the annual water for much of this state. So we got the water we needed without any dramas. No floods, no blackouts, no traffic disasters, just the normal plain old boring Utah weather. I don't know about you folks but I like my weather boring.

[Elmo T]

Folks here are very cranky. Still about 100 homes on Day 7 without power.

Nor'easter for tomorrow night. Snow totals vary - probably in the 12-18" range. Then a change at 0.1" of ice (NO MORE ICE PLEASE :irked:). Topping this all off will be 25MPH wind gusts.

Longmans should be at ground zero for this one too.

[Andrew Longman]

Longmans should be at ground zero for this one too.This kid is a weather genius https://www.facebook.com/HunterdonCountyWeather and he is predicting 22"

I am supposed to fly home Thursday. I guess that's not happening.

:irked:

[Napoleon]

This kid is a weather genius https://www.facebook.com/HunterdonCountyWeather and he is predicting 22"

I am supposed to fly home Thursday. I guess that's not happening.

:irked:


That is collapsing roof territory for a snow fall. That plus days and days before anything moves.

Hopefully you are stuck somewhere warmer and tolerable.

[Andrew Longman]

No kidding. And there is already at least a foot on the ground. I am in Houston. I changed plans to head out tomorrow ahead of the storm but I fly back Monday. Hopefully things will be sorted out by then.

BTW the kid in the link has an article link on his fb page about him just published in the local paper. He actually graduated with Trevor and just works on his dad's farm up the road from us. But he is a self taught meteorologist who give great detailed explanations of what's going on with the weather and routinely nails the forecast way better than the pros. He's a cool story.

[Elmo T]

NWS showing a band of 10-14" headed into NJ Longman land. NWS is typically conservative in their calls and the last time the storm "over performed" :saywhat:

At least they've done away with the ice forecast.

ComEd crews are about done here now, but PECO is making them stay through the next storm.

http://i61.tinypic.com/54wzz9.png

[WickerBill]

Flying out of EWR right now. Can't get out fast enough. For many reasons. :)

[Andrew Longman]

What?

You pizz off Tony Soprano? He knows where you live. :)

[WickerBill]

Ha. You know, speaking of that, I ate at a nice steakhouse Monday night in Branchburg, of all places. Fairly empty. In the corner sat three guys with movie-quality NYC accents. They were loud and vulgar. All three ordered the 42oz Porterhouse, a treat at $84. When the slabs arrived, there was some commotion, the manager came out and apologized all over himself, but one steak ended up on the ground and the guys stormed out.

I was completely expecting a sad story about a dead restaurant manager on the news that night.

[Andrew Longman]

Char?

Good place I hear but I haven't been there myself

[WickerBill]

Char?

Good place I hear but I haven't been there myself

Rue Noir (http://www.ruenoirsteakhouse.com/) (very close to Char, though)

[Andrew Longman]

Rue Noir (http://www.ruenoirsteakhouse.com/) (very close to Char, though)

Good choice :)

I do know better cheaper though

[Tifosi24]

Well, no one has touched this thread in a week, so I thought I would revive it. The Twin Cities got a solid storm Thursday into Friday with just under a foot of snow. Luckily, my work is flexible, so I could work from home because the roads were poor because they flash froze and it was a near blizzard all day. I just checked the airport weather station, and there is 24" of snow pack right now, which is a near record for this time of the year. The downer is that it will get into the -10s below zero over the next week and the long range models are hinting at more snow and bitter cold the first ten days of March. It is shocking to think that two years ago I rode my bike on March 7th and it was in the 70s that day. This year, there could be 30" of snow on the ground.

[cameraman]

And in Utah, just west of that jet stream currently freezing the midwest, it will be about 10° above normal with temps in the 50s all week.

[WickerBill]

I will be in SLC on Wednesday and will be very glad to see 50.

[Napoleon]

. . . and I just got a message from where I live that they are cutting back salting to intersections, curves and hills. They are running out of salt.

[Elmo T]

. . . and I just got a message from where I live that they are cutting back salting to intersections, curves and hills. They are running out of salt.

Some local towns doing the same here.

And another 6-12" for Sunday into Monday now.

[Don Quixote]

The weather here in CO is awful, just awful. It may not get much over 60 today. :p

[cameraman]

Yeah we might get a little bit of rain today and it's cooling off with a high in the upper-50s. It's horrible I tell you, just horrible.

[nrc]

This winter has been the most fun since '78.

[cameraman]

We got over an inch of rain at the house yesterday. It rained all afternoon, my son was just amazed because it does not normally do that in northern Utah. For him rain is something that is associated with a thunderstorm that lasts ~20 minutes. His brain would melt if he spent any length of time in Seattle or Portland.

[Elmo T]

This winter has been the most fun since '78.

And it is not over yet!

No more ice please though.

Vacation days are falling from the school calendar like the snow causing it.

[cameraman]

:laugh:


OK, so March isn’t coming in like a lion. But, at least, the Utah version of the third month of the year could be one wet, irritable kitten.

[Don Quixote]

This winter has been the most fun since '78.A memorable winter for me. Three things stand out. Two blizzards in as many weeks. A 2-hour long 8:00 class at tOSU every day in mechanical drawing, a totally useless skill. I was dumped by my girlfriend like a sack of flour from an airplane. I wonder how she turned out?

[Elmo T]

Posted by one of the local semi-pro weather groups today.

http://i62.tinypic.com/4ptt2g.jpg

[WickerBill]

619


OH COME ON this is getting old.

[TravelGal]

And apparently it's pouring in Southern California. I say "apparently" as I'm with TravelMom today but TravelGuy reports a deluge.

[Gnam]

In like a snow lion who lives in the snow...

http://s9.postimg.org/hbxdlqzfj/half_dome_03_01_14.jpg

[nrc]

619


OH COME ON this is getting old.

Ok, since we've had a pretty good snowfall this winter and since it is March I'm willing to concede that if we get at least the promised six inches by Monday it's time for spring. I have a half finished fence to work on, after all.

[G.]

I need another weekend or 2 of winter, so I can preemptively replace my sump pump before the thaw.

[nrc]

This storm has been pretty much a bust here. Last night the snow was mainly to our north and tonight it's mainly to our south. :(

[Elmo T]

This storm has been pretty much a bust here. Last night the snow was mainly to our north and tonight it's mainly to our south. :(

Fizzled here = no snow in Poconos just to the north of us, only a few inches here. And now for the "record cold weather" tonight.


EDIT - That report was from the window. We actually received just enough to cover the ground. Original forecast was 8-14" and we received maybe 3/4" of an inch.

[WickerBill]

Richard, please explain the frown... aren't you happy for a less-than-expected snowfall for once? Did you have money riding on it or something?

[chop456]

Richard, please explain the frown... aren't you happy for a less-than-expected snowfall for once? Did you have money riding on it or something?

Probably bought some bitchin' AWD, turbocharged snowblower with heated grips or something.

[NismoZ]

Got ALL+ of that 6" here in the top band on the map...jumped from 5th to 4th on the all time list...Woo! Woo! Running out of time to make the podium, though...gotta PUSH! -8 with a -21 chill at dog walk time this morning. Bringing home a GOLD for the days below zero as a...WAIT, this just in, BREAKING NEWS...THIRD all-time in snow AND cold...a Gold and TWO bronze...not too shabby. I've had it, do NOT want to go for ANY more medals...especially that "days over 100" one! (PS...Hey! how do you make a "degree" symbol on a keyboard! f?:confused:)

[nrc]

Richard, please explain the frown... aren't you happy for a less-than-expected snowfall for once? Did you have money riding on it or something?

I've actually enjoyed having real winter weather for a change. I was hoping that this would be a grand finale of sorts before we move on to a full blown spring warm-up. The storm was a bust and it looks like there's not much of a warm-up on the way either. I'd rather have cold and snowy than cold and rainy.

[Gnam]

(PS...Hey! how do you make a "degree" symbol on a keyboard! f?:confused:)
hold down the 'Alt' button and punch in '248' on the number pad:
ALT+248 = °

[cameraman]

Or option-shift-8 on an Apple °•°•°•°•° just option-8 for the black dot.

[cameraman]

Oy vey. This is the latest bit of California snowpack data. Note they are comparing March 19, 2014 data to historical April 1 data. So the snow has two more weeks to melt/evaporate before the final comparison.

http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BjIWSdnCUAAipB9.png:large

Not good at all.

[Gnam]

The technology exists to "close the loop" on the water supply by connecting the water treatment plants to the reservoirs, but people aren't ready for that yet. ;)

[cameraman]

The technology exists to "close the loop" on the water supply by connecting the water treatment plants to the reservoirs, but people aren't ready for that yet. ;)

Well if you know someone who can solve the biological, nanoparticulate and precipitation fouling of RO membranes then I say we go for it...

[Don Quixote]

Calling for 9 inches of snow tonight and tomorrow in the Denver metro area. Happy mother's day, and cover those tomato plants!

[dando]

Calling for 9 inches of snow tonight and tomorrow in the Denver metro area. Happy mother's day, and cover those tomato plants!

Climate change, yo. :gomer:

[nrc]

Climate change, yo. :gomer:

Obligatory climate/weather response.

[dando]

Calling for 9 inches of snow tonight and tomorrow in the Denver metro area. Happy mother's day, and cover those tomato plants!

I should add that it's begining to look a lot like Christmas... :gomer:

[cameraman]

Yeah. It's cloudy today CLIMATE CHANGZ!!!!

[dando]

http://news.yahoo.com/mid-may-storm-buries-colorado-flower-beds-under-151243283.html;_ylt=AsR5arGz56hwGoSKwGF53TrQtDMD;_ ylu=X3oDMTBsOTJoYjVyBGNvbG8DZ3ExBHBvcwM2BHNlYwNzcg--


(Reuters) - A mid-May snowstorm dumped as much as 3 feet (91 cm) of snow on Colorado's Rocky Mountains on Monday while the U.S. Midwest braced for hail and other severe weather, forecasters said.

Snowplows cleared the way for the Monday morning rush hour after the storm, which is expected to taper off by midday, blanketed Denver with more than 4 inches (10 cm) and the mountains northeast of Steamboat Springs with 36 inches (91 cm) of snow, said Jim Kalina, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Boulder, Colorado.



https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10152385782611113&set=a.10151913606886113.1073741830.64466991112&type=1&theater

3' of snow in CO. :eek:

[cameraman]

Yeah, I-80 through Wyoming has been closed for ~24 hours now. Quite the spring storm.

[Gnam]

Cloud seen in California. Film at 11. :shakehead:

http://sacramento.cbslocal.com/2014/05/10/hole-punch-cloud-spotted-in-stockton/

[Don Quixote]

The drive into work this morning was brutal, not because of road conditions, but because of the 1 out of 4 cars on the road driven by ex-Los Angeles residents. We did get about 1.1 inches of water equivalent in snow, which in the dead of winter would be a foot of snow. However, since the ground was heated up the net snow on the ground was 4 inches in the city and maybe 6 inches in the suburbs. No snow on the roads. CDOT had 130 snow plows out on the roads and I have no idea what they were plowing. And unlike the east coast, we don't yet name our storms.

[Andrew Longman]

And unlike the east coast, we don't yet name our storms.Other than any number of colorful and imaginative expletives, we don't call our storms names either. The Weather Channel however...;)

[TravelGal]

The drive into work this morning was brutal, not because of road conditions, but because of the 1 out of 4 cars on the road driven by ex-Los Angeles residents.

Once you get your King Taco, you'll stop complaining. ;)

[Don Quixote]

Once you get your King Taco, you'll stop complaining. ;)I would settle for in & out. :laugh:

[dando]

Record highs here earlier in the week, AC on full blast due to hot & humid. Heat on and a fire in the fireplace last night and tonight. :saywhat:

[Gnam]

It is freaking raining here in NorCal. :saywhat:

There's no raining in California in August! [/Tom Hanks]

[TravelGal]

It is freaking raining here in NorCal. :saywhat:

There's no raining in California in August! [/Tom Hanks]

Good Hanks reference. :thumbup:

Yeah, my plane was delayed 90 minutes in Las Vegas on Sunday night due to "weather." TravelGuy kept saying it wasn't raining in LA. I kept saying it wasn't raining in Vegas. BUT it was REALLY raining in between, just to the east of LA.

[cameraman]

Yeah we are at >200% of normal for rain over the last month. It has put out all the forest fires so I'll take it. Beats the hell out of extreme drought.

[cameraman]

This is pretty cool. It is the wind map of the central pacific with three hurricanes

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-154.05,19.04,889

That link has the moving wind map, this is a still of a segment of the map

http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BueBJvfIgAAzMSh.jpg:large

The map itself is really cool in that you can spin the earth around and look at all sorts of locations.

[Gnam]

swirly. :thumbup:

[SteveH]

Did someone say wind map?
http://hint.fm/wind/

Have fun.

[cameraman]

Okay then, it seems that Hurricane Patricia has broken the weather models.

http://i260.photobucket.com/albums/ii35/Cynops/20EP.gif

The T/CI number value isn't supposed to be able to go above eight for a Pacific storm because the water doesn't get warm enough to drive a storm that hard. Until this year:eek:

[dando]

Das Boot? :(

[trish]

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/NASA928

[NismoZ]

Good thing Patricia adopted a "Hit 'em where they ain't" attitude!:)

[Elmo T]

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/NASA928


A WB-57!? :saywhat:

So I did a quick search on the Google thing - found this from 2003:

B-57 Still Going Strong at 59 (http://www.nasa.gov/missions/research/b-57_feature.html)

From 2003!

Very cool :thumbup:

[cameraman]

There are three WB-57Fs that have been acting as flying communications centers over Afghanistan for years now.

http://www.wired.com/2012/09/air-force-universal-translator/

There's NASA926, NASA927 and NASA928

I don't know how they split the time between hurricanes and communications missions but 926 has the murkiest flight aware history.


The primary user of the WB-57F was the 58th Weather Reconnaissance Squadron at Kirtland AFB, in Albuquerque, New Mexico, who received their first aircraft in 1964. These Canberras were deployed throughout the world where there was suspected atmospheric testing of nuclear devices to sample the upper atmosphere for nuclear debris.

Due to a poor material selection, the long wings of the WB-57Fs started showing stress corrosion cracks after a few short years of service. It was decided to replace the wing spar and ribs with a different type of aluminum, but it was not financially feasible to replace the entire fleet, and nine planes were sent to storage. Shortly thereafter, the 58th WRS deactivated their remaining planes in 1974, ending a long era of the Canberras military service.

However, shortly before this in 1968, NASA had contracted with the Air Force to operate an RB-57F, which flew many research missions as part of the Earth Resources Technology Satellite program. In 1972, the Air Force thought the expense was too high, and transferred the plane to NASA. This aircraft was re-numbered NASA 925. This plane operated until 1982, when it was retired. It currently resides in the Pima Air Museum in Tucson, Arizona.

When the 58th WRS high altitude program was cut in 1974, they also transferred NASA 926 to Houston. While this plane was out of service for some time due to budget considerations, it is still flying missions today, operating out of Ellington Field in Houston, Texas. More recently, NASA acquired another WB-57F, numbered NASA 928.

In 2013, the 50th anniversary year of the WB-57F model aircraft, NASA added a third aircraft to the fleet with the first flight of the former AF 63-13295 in more than 41 years. Now known as NASA 927, the aircraft had been in long-term storage in the “boneyard” at Davis-Monthan AFB, Arizona before completing two years of regeneration to flight status. NASA 927 holds the aircraft record for the longest time in extended storage before being returned to flying status.

NASA 926, NASA 927, and NASA 928 are the only three WB-57s still flying in the world today.

[cameraman]

The weekend total rainfall

http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/imageo/files/2015/10/Texas-Precip.png

[dando]

I'm amazed they got the USGP off. :eek: Pat's remains will visit us later today and into tomorrow. 1-2" expected. Much needed as the NWS has issued red flag warnings around here. Hopefully done by Thursday afternoon since we have Harvest parties and Beggar's Night on the schedule. :(