View Full Version : The Russians Are Coming!
The Russians Are Coming! But, not to worry, there will be "costs" this time. What was the cost the first time they did this...a few MILLION dead people? Nice they DID hold off 'til AFTER the Olympics, though. We COULD'VE boycotted! The Jerks!
Ukraine's parliament has voted to demand guarantees that Britain and the United States will safeguard its borders and independence. (http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2014/02/28/ukraine-appeals-us-uk-sovereignty)
Legislators voted to demand guarantees of a 1994 memorandum that Ukraine signed with the Britain, Russia and the United States in Budapest safeguarding its borders and independence in return for giving up any nuclear arsenals left in the country after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Shoulda kept those nukes...
Ivan don't waste no time. Ukraine was free for 1 week.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2TVyPiHVZ1A
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYFh2lABg48
Yeah, just saw those clips. Nothing to worry about, though. I hear only about 2000 heavily armed Russian Special Forces have been flown in and have taken up positions around TV/radio stations, airports, certain government buildings and port facilities. Nothing sinister about that, is there? Only the Crimea, after all! An invasion? Gee, when questioned on that, a top Russian official just laughed it off, saying it didn't deserve a response! He wouldn't LIE, would he?:rolleyes: (They don't need those nukes, but I bet they might see if they can "find" some of those 20,000 missing shoulder launch AA missiles from a previous dust-up over that way. As I recall the Russians had a rather large problem with those a few years ago? Talk about a "cost"!)
Opposite Lock
03-01-14, 01:10 AM
This is out there now:
Revealed: The forgotten treaty which could drag the US and UK into WAR with Russia if Putin's troops intervene in Ukraine (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2570335/Former-British-Ambassador-Moscow-warns-Russia-invaded-Ukraine-difficult-avoid-going-war.html?utm_content=buffer05ecd&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer)
*The agreement sees signatories promise to protect Ukraine's borders
*It was signed by Bill Clinton, John Major, Boris Yeltsin and Leonid Kuchma in 1994
*Ukrainian parliament has now reached out directly to all the countries who signed the treaty
* Putin currently has 150,000 troops on Ukraine's borders and it is reported some have crossed into the country
*President Obama says he is 'deeply concerned' by the news
*The US and Britain have both made 'crisis calls' to President Putin to warn him to respect territorial boundaries
By Jill Reilly
PUBLISHED: 13:05 EST, 28 February 2014 | UPDATED: 18:09 EST, 28 February 2014
A treaty signed in 1994 by the US and Britain could pull both countries into a war to protect Ukraine if President Putin's troops cross into the country.
Bill Clinton, John Major, Boris Yeltsin and Leonid Kuchma – the then-rulers of the USA, UK, Russia and Ukraine - agreed to the The Budapest Memorandum as part of the denuclearization of former Soviet republics after the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
Technically it means that if Russia has invaded Ukraine then it would be difficult for the US and Britain to avoid going to war.
Putin installed 150,000 troops along Ukraine's borders after the overthrow of Moscow ally Viktor Yanukovych by pro-European protesters.
On Friday, as pro-Russia gunmen patrolled Crimean streets in armored vehicles and took over airports there, President Obama delivered a blunt warnings to Moscow.
"We are now deeply concerned by reports of military movements taken by the Russian Federation inside of Ukraine," he told reporters at the White House.
"Any violation of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity would be deeply destabilizing," he said in a brief appearance. "The United States will stand with the international community in affirming that there will be costs for any military intervention in Ukraine."
/snip
(this next part may cost me a time-out, but I think it needs to be put forth):
"After the Russian army invaded the nation of Georgia, Senator Obama's reaction was one of indecision and moral equivalence – the kind of response that would only encourage Russia's Putin to invade Ukraine next," she said in Reno, Nevada on October 21, 2008.
The former Alaska governor was happy to highlight her prediction on Friday and scold those who criticized her 2008 comments.
"Yes, I could see this one from Alaska," :D she said on Facebook. That remark was a reference to a 2008 interview in which Palin argued that Alaska's proximity to Russia helped boost her foreign policy experience.
Saturday Night Live parodied her remarks in a now-famous sketch with Tina Fey, who played Palin on the show, saying "I can see Russia from my house." :gomer:
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2014/02/28/palin-on-ukraine-i-told-you-so/
and for the haters, here is the actual quote that Tina Fey was playing off:
The basis for this line comes from a September 2008 interview with ABC News's Charles Gibson, who asked Palin what insights she had from her state being so close to Russia. She responded: "They're our next-door neighbors, and you can actually see Russia from land here in Alaska, from an island in Alaska."
http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2011/0603/Political-misquotes-The-10-most-famous-things-never-actually-said/I-can-see-Russia-from-my-house!-Sarah-Palin
and for the haters, here is the actual quote that Tina Fey was playing off:]
Who are the "haters' you're referring to?
Who are the "haters' you're referring to?
Just wait.... ;)
As for the treaty, I don't think there is any chance the current administration is going to intervene in the Ukraine beyond empty words.
stroker
03-01-14, 10:31 AM
Maybe it's just me, but I have to believe at some level the Russian government has to see that the Ukrainians are tired of being everybody's frikkin' doormat. First Stalin starved them by the millions, then Hitler killed them by the millions, then Stalin came through and killed a bunch more all over again. I have to believe the Ukrainians are taking the position that enough is enough. The Russian Army is not much more than a bunch of thugs with AK's at this point. The term "civil war" is going to be too nice for this mess by the time it's over. How Putin's advisers don't see that I just don't understand...
Woke up this morning to the good news that it AIN''T the Russians! They said so! Those Army-looking guys are being referred to as "armed men" who took over those airports, government buildings etc...don't know HOW they will explain away their destroyer cruising the harbor at Sevastopol.:irked: Oh, and treaties are made to be broken. Things change. The runaway President showed up in Moscow (a real shocker!) saying something like, "I SHALL return!" My sarcasm is over....this is a VERY serious situation and I have VERY serious doubts we have a foreign policy team that can handle it. I think they have a winless record so far and, who knows, that might BE their policy!
"Suck it," Putin explained. "All your base are belong to us."
Lawmakers Allow Putin to Use Military in Ukraine
"I am submitting a request for using the armed forces of the Russian Federation on the territory of Ukraine pending the normalization of the socio-political situation in that country," Putin said before the vote.
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/crimean-leader-claims-control-asks-putin-22729336
leaving the politics aside, if you're a Ukrainian citizen living in occupied territory do you run or wait it out?
Gosh...wish we could have seen THAT one coming...oh, wait...that was sarcasm, right? OK, I'm out until the REAL riots break out again. Sarcasm? Aaaarggh...going to sports car forum, you experts handle this one. SOMEbody will have to! (That "run or wait it out question" is one I always think of when reading stories about German Jews between 1932-39. A lot of both took place... not enough running, though.)
Tifosi24
03-01-14, 04:21 PM
The language of the Russian force authorization is a clear escalation, in that it allows military forces anywhere in the Ukraine. I believe the BBC is reporting that upwards of 7,000 Russian troops are in the Crimea right now, and a military expert is on the ground in the Crimea and reported that the numbers on the APCs are not what are normally found for Russian forces stationed in the Crimea. The Baltic States that are in NATO have asked for Paragraph 4 (one step below the intervention request) consultations. This situation has the potential to really spiral out of control, and I don't like it one bit.
It is bizarre that CNN and other outlets are comparing this to the Georgia situation in 2008. They are similar, in a sense, but Georgia was goaded into reacting and everyone (except the Georgians) knew there would be no Western response. Ukraine has strategic importance in Europe and borders the heart of Europe and NATO. The prospect of the split of the Ukraine into two nations, divided by language, is a real possibility or the wholesale annexation of the majority Russian speaking portions of the country.
It is bizarre that CNN and other outlets are comparing this to the Georgia situation in 2008. They are similar, in a sense, but Georgia was goaded into reacting and everyone (except the Georgians) knew there would be no Western response. Ukraine has strategic importance in Europe and borders the heart of Europe and NATO. The prospect of the split of the Ukraine into two nations, divided by language, is a real possibility or the wholesale annexation of the majority Russian speaking portions of the country.
The only difference is scale. Georgia is small, Ukraine is big. Otherwise, they're identical.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i2nuPVTU4Z4
There is a chunk of Russian soil between Poland and Lithuania centered around the city of Kaliningrad. It is separated from the rest of Russia by Belarus. It is also home to Russia's Baltic Sea Fleet. By treaty, a US aircraft carrier cannot enter the Black Sea, but no one said the Baltic was off limits. Perhaps a trade should be offered, or at least pressure applied to a tender spot.
http://s27.postimg.org/ptbplkn3n/map_kaliningrad.jpg
Maybe it's just me, but I have to believe at some level the Russian government has to see that the Ukrainians are tired of being everybody's frikkin' doormat.
You would think so or at least I would think so.
When Yugoslavia was broken up I thought the people would be dancing in the streets, but instead they started killing each other over thousand year old grudges.
We look at these situations from an American (or Canadian) perspective where the concepts of freedom and democracy aren’t abstract.
Ukraine put its armed forces on full combat alert on Saturday and warned Russia that any military intervention in the country would lead to war.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/01/us-ukraine-crisis-military-idUSBREA200UG20140301
The report is from the Russian media, so you know, grains of salt...
Ukranian Flagship defects to Russians
Ukraine’s Navy flagship, the Hetman Sahaidachny frigate, has reportedly refused to follow orders from Kiev, and come over to Russia’s side and is returning home after taking part in NATO operation in the Gulf of Aden flying the Russian naval flag.
http://rt.com/news/ukraine-navy-flaghsip-protest-389/
Not good.
cameraman
03-01-14, 05:51 PM
The Russians have wanted Crimea back since the USSR broke up. At the end of this Putin will probably get it back.
stroker
03-01-14, 06:23 PM
Damn, I wish I'd invested in whatever companies make Drones and Hellfire missiles.
Then again, they'll probably not get used given the current command structure.
The Russians have wanted Crimea back since the USSR broke up. At the end of this Putin will probably get it back.
This is my thinking as well.
Saw a graphic somewhere, WSJ I think, that over 50% of the population of Crimea consider themselves Russian. Probably be easy enough to hold an 'election' that shows they'd rather by part of Russia.
Racing Truth
03-01-14, 08:51 PM
"Suck it," Putin explained. "All your base are belong to us."
leaving the politics aside, if you're a Ukrainian citizen living in occupied territory do you run or wait it out?
1. Depends on what kind of Ukrainian you are. If you really do sympathize w/ Moscow, then you wait quietly for the tanks to come.
2. If not, well, where do you go? Further into Western Ukraine?
Anyway, this is likely awful strategy by Putin. (http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/foreigners/2014/03/vladimir_putin_s_crimean_mistake_the_russian_presi dent_is_miscalculating.html) If only he cared. (http://www.newrepublic.com/article/116810/putin-declares-war-ukraine-why-and-what-next)
Tifosi24
03-01-14, 11:08 PM
There is a chunk of Russian soil between Poland and Lithuania centered around the city of Kaliningrad. It is separated from the rest of Russia by Belarus. It is also home to Russia's Baltic Sea Fleet. By treaty, a US aircraft carrier cannot enter the Black Sea, but no one said the Baltic was off limits. Perhaps a trade should be offered, or at least pressure applied to a tender spot.
http://s27.postimg.org/ptbplkn3n/map_kaliningrad.jpg
That would certainly get things moving. I think the Germans would be all for this trade. Russia gets the Crimea and the Germans get Koenigsberg back, the Prussians will be very excited. The Poles, on the other hand, not so much.
This will be a very interesting next few days and weeks. I hope a diplomatic solution can be found, but I think Supreme Leader Putin has other ideas.
Anyway, this is likely awful strategy by Putin. (http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/foreigners/2014/03/vladimir_putin_s_crimean_mistake_the_russian_presi dent_is_miscalculating.html) If only he cared. (http://www.newrepublic.com/article/116810/putin-declares-war-ukraine-why-and-what-next)
from the article
[A] narrow strip of land tethering northern Crimea to the Ukrainian mainland, called the Perokop Isthmus, is the peninsula’s lifeline. What’s left out of most Western analyses of Putin’s brazen military intervention is the Crimea’s complete economic dependence on the mainland, which provides nearly all of its electricity and water and about 70 percent of its food.
I did not know Crimea was so dependent on the mainland. That means the Russian invasion won't be limited to just Crimea. To consolidate what they've already taken, they'll need to push deeper into Ukraine to secure the utilities. There's no way they'll let someone else control strategic resources.
As for who should be running, I would start with those 300,000 Tatars that moved back to Crimea after the USSR fell apart. Russians don't like outsiders. They don't like muslims. And, they don't like muslim outsiders with an axe to grind that could form an insurgency.
300,000? Hmmmm...they could cause a little trouble...of course in the past MILLIONS were barely a speedbump on the way to "consolidation." Wondering... where did those 300k COME FROM after that "greatest political tragedy of the 20th Century":shakehead:...and would they be welcomed BACK? Would rather not see a "Crimean Boat Lift."
Alrighty, then..."Surrender by 5pm (local) or die"...Putin. My advice would be to surrender...but don't give up. I don't think a bunch of kids getting slaughtered is necessary to make a point.
Tifosi24
03-03-14, 01:27 PM
Alrighty, then..."Surrender by 5pm (local) or die"...Putin. My advice would be to surrender...but don't give up. I don't think a bunch of kids getting slaughtered is necessary to make a point.
I agree, the decree, if real (apparently the Russians are denying it and why would you admit to any strategic decisions), is something that will only lead the a slaughter. Unfortunately, if some Ukrainian elements are attacked by the Russians, it will escalate the situation even further. The Russians are clearly emboldened, and my gut is telling me that this won't stop with the Crimea.
Just saw a map of all the oil and gas pipelines from Russia THROUGH the Ukraine or TO Sevastopol. Yikes! About 80% of European natural gas comes from Putin via the Ukraine! So, "What's the price of gas/oil."...near you? Gotta have an affect!
stroker
03-03-14, 02:07 PM
Something tells me that if the US were to imply that this move would force a reconsideration of whether the treaties with the USSR were still in effect, that might have some traction. I don't see Vlad looking forward to the possibility of thermonuclear stealth cruise missiles in our arsenal.
Alrighty, then..."Surrender by 5pm (local) or die"...Putin. My advice would be to surrender...but don't give up. I don't think a bunch of kids getting slaughtered is necessary to make a point.
If true, an ultimatum like that means some of the Ukrainian units aren't willing to defect, and Russia is unwilling to let them withdraw intact.
Cut-off, surrounded, and abandoned is a pretty horrible way to start a war. It is sobering watching another country get invaded and subjugated, especially when the home army is turned into an impotent observer. :(
Something tells me that if the US were to imply that this move would force a reconsideration of whether the treaties with the USSR were still in effect, that might have some traction. I don't see Vlad looking forward to the possibility of thermonuclear stealth cruise missiles in our arsenal.
Russia knows the EU, NATO, and the US cannot afford or sustain an escalation, except in the face of an existentially threat. As long as they believe they are not in mortal danger, he will remain unopposed.
Nor do I! (the missile reference) BUT...I'd like to see a list of all that we are WILLING to do, not what we CAN do. Even Putin knows what we CAN do but my guess is he has no fear that we WILL! When I hear Russia being threatened with "costs" for their actions or being faced with "serious consequences" I can almost see him laughing! How much of our wheat does Russia get from us now? They REALLY needed it back in the 80s but I think all we did was piss off our own farmers by shutting out one of their best customers! Boycotting the Olympics managed only to up their medal count as far as I can recall. I think a threat of "The (UN) Observers Are Coming! The Observers Are Coming!"...doesn't exactly make Putin shake in his boots, either....even IF a free and open election could be won by the Russian majority, let alone a rigged one. Get the Russians to go on record as vetoing any UN resolution attempting to limit their actions...even if it doesn't make a damn bit of difference...THEN get every European nation on the map, NATO or not, to make a SINGLE resolution, if they have the guts! Hmmm... Can we build the Keystone Pipeline across the Atlantic instead!?;)
Opposite Lock
03-03-14, 03:37 PM
Waiting for, "If you like your Ukraine, you can keep your Ukraine".
Yeah, but no need to get into that kind of "analysis"...it's problem solving now. Just listened to the President speak...while Putin mobilizes and sends ultimatums (maybe), I just heard "WE will continue to issue strong statements."...and "considering a whole series of steps." Yippee! I really hope we are going to do more than consider or send Chamberl...uh, I mean Kerry, to talk. PLENTY of people knew Germany had it's eyes on WAY more than just "living room" in one case and would be pleased with only Czechoslovakia in another...and "PEACE IN OUR TIME" was a really strong statement...but it just wasn't true and all the words ultimately meant nothing. Wish we would restore about a trillion $$ in military spending, renew the tactical/battlefield nuke defense strategy in Europe, Forget the G8 summit and make a decision on "energy" sharing with our allies in Europe. I think you know what THAT would include. It might be time! (Hearing the Russian ruble just tanked today and their financial market plunged 13%. Nice) Great...Russians just isolated the Crimean peninsula. We ordered them to stand down. :shakehead: Poland sounds worried...ya THINK!?
Napoleon
03-03-14, 04:59 PM
If true, an ultimatum like that means some of the Ukrainian units aren't willing to defect, and Russia is unwilling to let them withdraw intact.
See the below. Also last evening, I think it was ABC News, showed one of their army bases that refuse to surrender.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/03/ukraine-navy-officers-defect-russian-crimea-berezovsky
Sunday, March 2nd
REP. CHRIS VAN HOLLEN: If I can just say a quick word on the Ukraine, in response to the earlier section. We’re 48 hours from an international crisis, I would hope Americans would focus on condemning the actions of Putin rather than in a knee-jerk way, again, criticizing the president of the United States. Let's stand together on this.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2014/03/02/van_hollen_condemn_putin_rather_than_criticizing_o bama.html
Fair enough on the togetherness, but what the heck is going to happen on Tuesday? :saywhat:
Napoleon
03-03-14, 05:03 PM
I did not know Crimea was so dependent on the mainland. That means the Russian invasion won't be limited to just Crimea. To consolidate what they've already taken, they'll need to push deeper into Ukraine to secure the utilities. There's no way they'll let someone else control strategic resources.
Funny thing though, even expanding deeper into Ukraine will not solve the problem Putin has which is of a lot of the corrupt oligarchs who support Putin hold a good chunk of their assets in European banks, and regularly sent their kids their for education to get them out of Russia as well. Suddenly blocking those accounts and revoking/denying the visas going forward would be a stomach punch to his base of supporters.
Ah, a preemptive strike! Russia calls a UN meeting and is citing all of the mean things Ukraine was doing to the Russians there. The Russian Army is there to establish peace, save lives and guard human rights...for Russians. We are legitimate and appropriate!...Samanthas (US) turn...no evidence of violence against Russians, no right or legal basis for Russian action, The US will work WITH Russia to guarantee rights (that aren't being violated?:rolleyes:) of Russians there. Actually a good response but more "steps" coming...There goes the Dow, oil prices spiking...more to come, I'm sure. Gas up .18 from last month, grain markets, food markets...wonderful. (hearing the Russian market drop is equal to a 1600 pt. fall in our Dow...which might be on the horizon? BIG JITTERS!)
See the below. Also last evening, I think it was ABC News, showed one of their army bases that refuse to surrender.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/03/ukraine-navy-officers-defect-russian-crimea-berezovsky
"Don't ask provocative questions," Berezovsky barked.
Sounds about right. :thumbdown:
Funny thing though, even expanding deeper into Ukraine will not solve the problem Putin has which is of a lot of the corrupt oligarchs who support Putin hold a good chunk of their assets in European banks, and regularly sent their kids their for education to get them out of Russia as well. Suddenly blocking those accounts and revoking/denying the visas going forward would be a stomach punch to his base of supporters.
Right. About as effective as holding a pot of honey and yelling, "Shoo Bear! Go away!"
Although, it worked for this lady.
http://www.citynews.ca/2012/10/02/video-of-the-day-woman-tells-bear-to-go-away/
Napoleon
03-03-14, 05:26 PM
Right. About as effective as holding a pot of honey and yelling, "Shoo Bear! Go away!
Blocking billions of dollars of Putin's supporters from leaving the EU is like holding out a pot of honey in front of them? It may not change the result, but that is a real kick in the groin to his power base.
By the way, regarding the upstream comment on him withholding gas to the EU, I guess this is the worst possible time for him to threaten that. They have had a mild winter (this winter was the 4th warmest on record on Earth, notwithstanding what the East and Midwest in the US have put up with) and the EUs reserves are in great shape, and that would give the US plenty of time to plan to make up a good chunk of it for next year, and of course all of this is happening with spring just around the corner.
For those on Twitter, Gary Kasparov is pretty insightful.
@Kasparov63
I assume if this keeps up the October Russian GP at Sochi Olympic Park Circuit will be a no-go?
Ted
:thumbup: to Kasparov.
Blocking billions of dollars of Putin's supporters from leaving the EU is like holding out a pot of honey in front of them? It may not change the result, but that is a real kick in the groin to his power base.
I'm not saying don't do it, by all means take their money and give it to UNICEF. I'm just suggesting that it won't make the bear behave and will probably make it angrier.
I could be wrong, but my understanding of Russia today is that Putin's friends are rich because they are Putin's friends. Stop being friendly means stop being rich (alive?). The rich aren't campaign contributors looking for influence, they are loyalists rewarded for backing Putin.
If Europe takes their money, their reaction is not going to be to blame Putin or to ask him to play nice. They will blame Europe and encourage Putin to fight for them.
cameraman
03-04-14, 12:42 AM
Angela Merkel is correct in thinking that Putin is "living in another world". He is living and playing by his rules and he doesn't care what anyone else thinks about it.
•Putin knows that Russia is the largest energy supplier to western Europe. Summer or not, that's leverage.
•Putin knows that EU rules require 100% agreement from all member states before the EU can apply sanctions. Unanimity from the EU, yeah that's likely.
•Putin know what the US is capable of doing on its own concerning sanctions. ie ultimately not a hell of a lot.
•Putin knows that there is no way the US or NATO is prepared to start a shooting war. That leaves hot air and ineffective sanctions.
•Russia has veto power in the UN, it is entirely powerless.
Putin is more than happy to give the middle finger to the entire planet and do whatever he wants because the only way to stop him is to kill him and that ain't happening. So yeah, Putin is "out of touch with reality" in that he is out of touch with our reality and our rules. Putin is playing a completely different game than the rest of the world.
Angela Merkel is correct in thinking that Putin is "living in another world". He is living and playing by his rules and he doesn't care what anyone else thinks about it.
Putin is living in our world. The sooner the world accepts that he is real and that "our rules" are the illusion the better.
A couple of years ago, I was given an old book that, at the time, I found very boring. However, recent events have brought to mind a few passages. In 1911 the author, Sir Julian Corbett, was reviewing the work of two earlier authors on the Theory of War and made several points about "Limited" war. Below are some of the passages.
What's impressive is that the earlier authors he was reviewing were from around the time of Napoleon.
The more things change, the more they stay the same. ;)
Putin has completed the first stage of Limited war. He has secured Crimea.
It remains to be seen if he can complete the second stage, by forcing the world to accept his presence.
Corbett warned, however, that Limited war between two belligerents with a common border can easily slip into Unlimited war by invasion. :(
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/15076
Some Principles of Maritime Strategy
by Sir Julian S. Corbett
Chapter Three
Nature of Wars - Limited and Unlimited
...
By the classification in question Clausewitz distinguished wars into those with a "Limited" object and those whose object was "Unlimited." Such a classification was entirely characteristic of him, for it rested not alone upon the material nature of the object, but on certain moral considerations to which he was the first to attach their real value in war. Other writers such as Jomini had attempted to classify wars by the special purpose for which they were fought, but Clausewitz's long course of study convinced him that such a distinction was unphilosophical and bore no just relation to any tenable theory of war. Whether, that is, a war was positive or negative mattered much, but its special purpose, whether, for instance, according to Jomini's system, it was a war "to assert rights" or "to assist an ally" or "to acquire territory," mattered not at all.
Whatever the object, the vital and paramount question was the intensity with which the spirit of the nation was absorbed in its attainment. The real point to determine in approaching any war plan was what did the object mean to the two belligerents, what sacrifices would they make for it, what risks were they prepared to run? It was thus he stated his view. "The smaller the sacrifice we demand from our opponent, the smaller presumably will be the means of resistance he will employ, and the smaller his means, the smaller will ours be required to be. Similarly the smaller our political object, the less value shall we set upon it and the more easily we shall be induced to abandon it." Thus the political object of the war, its original motive, will not only determine for both belligerents reciprocally the aim of the force they use, but it will also be the standard of the intensity of the efforts they will make. So he concludes there may be wars of all degrees of importance and energy from a war of extermination down to the use of an army of observation.
He saw that there was one class of war where the political object was of so vital an importance to both belligerents that they would tend to fight to the utmost limit of their endurance to secure it. But there was another class where the object was of less importance, that is to say, where its value to one or both the belligerents was not so great as to be worth unlimited sacrifices of blood and treasure. It was these two kinds of war he designated provisionally "Unlimited" and "Limited," by which he meant not that you were not to exert the force employed with all the vigour you could develop, but that there might be a limit beyond which it would be bad policy to spend that vigour, a point at which, long before your force was exhausted or even fully developed, it would be wiser to abandon your object rather than to spend more upon it.
Clausewitz saw that the distinction between Limited and Unlimited war connoted a cardinal distinction in the methods of waging it. When the object was unlimited, and would consequently call forth your enemy's whole war power, it was evident that no firm decision of the struggle could be reached till his war power was entirely crushed. Unless you had a reasonable hope of being able to do this it was bad policy to seek your end by force—that is, you ought not to go to war. In the case of a limited object, however, the complete destruction of the enemy's armed force was beyond what was necessary. Clearly you could achieve your end if you could seize the object, and by availing yourself of the elements of strength inherent in the defensive could set up such a situation that it would cost the enemy more to turn you out than the object was worth to him.
"They are of two different kinds," [Jomini] says, "one which may be called territorial or geographical ... the other on the contrary consists exclusively in the destruction or disorganisation of the enemy's forces without concerning yourself with geographical points of any kind." It is under the first category of his first main classification "Of offensive wars to assert rights," that he deals with what Clausewitz would call "Limited Wars." Citing as an example Frederick the Great's war for the conquest of Silesia, he says, "In such a war ... the offensive operations ought to be proportional to the end in view. The first move is naturally to occupy the provinces claimed" (not, be it noted, to direct your blow at the enemy's main force). "Afterwards," he proceeds, "you can push the offensive according to circumstances and your relative strength in order to obtain the desired cession by menacing the enemy at home." Here we have Clausewitz's whole doctrine of "Limited War"; firstly, the primary or territorial stage, in which you endeavour to occupy the geographical object, and then the secondary or coercive stage, in which you seek by exerting general pressure upon your enemy to force him to accept the adverse situation you have set up.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Tifosi24
03-04-14, 11:03 AM
Putin is living in our world. The sooner the world accepts that he is real and that "our rules" are the illusion the better.
Very cogent observation. Luckily for the United States, there is little consequence to Russian aggression as long as they do not attack a NATO member state. On the other hand, it is unlucky because there is nothing we can do to stop them. The ball is squarely in Europe's court, and they need to decide if they want to take the steps to free themselves of their dependence on Russian resources or if they want to remain virtually powerless against a dictator who can realistically remain in power for another 20 years. This doesn't need to be a military build up, but I don't think the Europeans have the stomach to change their energy policy to make this a fair fight.
I'm sure glad we're ditching all these cold war weapons that we'll never need. Now we just need the Yurps to agree let Russia have the Sudetenland, err Crimea. Welcome to 1938.
datachicane
03-04-14, 03:47 PM
Now we just need the Yurps to agree let Russia have the Sudetenland, err Crimea. Welcome to 1938.
Oh, fer...
Are we forever doomed to hearing this schtick whenever any solution short of war is proposed for every international incident? As if taking a stronger hand with Germany would have prevented WWII altogether, rather than merely moving it up the calendar a few years. Garsh, if only Chamberlain had talked tougher, Hitler would have gone home with his tail between his legs and stayed there. :shakehead:
cameraman
03-04-14, 03:56 PM
The EU has that nice vertical eastern border line running from Estonia south to Romania & Bulgaria. The only buffer between the EU and Russia is Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova(for whatever it's worth). Belarus is firmly in Putin's pocket with Alexander Lukashenko's totally corrupt essential-dictatorship in control. Then you have Ukraine filling the rest of the gap. The Russian nationalists really live in fear of having EU & NATO directly to their west. They will pretty much do anything to keep Belarus & Ukraine under Russian influence. The people in Ukraine don't care and they want a less overtly corrupt government that is tied to the EU not to Russian oligarchs. You have Putin telling straight faced lies about "protecting Russians" and doing whatever he can to upend a western friendly Ukrainian government in a stand off with the majority of the Ukrainian people who neither like nor trust Putin. Solomon would be hard pressed to sort this one.
And what happens when the people of Belarus get fed up with Lukashenko?
Napoleon
03-04-14, 04:09 PM
I'm sure glad we're ditching all these cold war weapons that we'll never need. Now we just need the Yurps to agree let Russia have the Sudetenland, err Crimea. Welcome to 1938.
Let us know when you return to reality.
Racing Truth
03-04-14, 04:40 PM
Troll So Hard, Vlad! (http://www.buzzfeed.com/miriamelder/russia-tests-an-intercontinentental-ballistic-missile-in-cas):gomer:
But hey, at least he's totally ration... SONOFA. (http://www.newrepublic.com/article/116852/merkel-was-right-putins-lost-his-mind-press-conference):o
Let us know when you return to reality.
Having never been to your reality I'm confident that I can never return to it.
Oh, fer...
Are we forever doomed to hearing this schtick whenever any solution short of war is proposed for every international incident? As if taking a stronger hand with Germany would have prevented WWII altogether, rather than merely moving it up the calendar a few years. Garsh, if only Chamberlain had talked tougher, Hitler would have gone home with his tail between his legs and stayed there. :shakehead:
Who said anything about war? I'm talking about the nature of the threats we face today (specifically those that have been dismissed like Russia an China) and our European so-called allies who are unwilling to do anything outside their own very insular interests unless it involves siccing their American guard dog on someone. Right now there's no indication that the Europeans are willing to participate in any kind of substantive sanctions. Maybe it's time we stop spending so much to on European security if they're not serious about it themselves.
Tifosi24
03-04-14, 07:11 PM
Nrc maybe went a bit farther than I would go, but there are distinct parallels between this and 1930s Europe (although Russian rearmament apparently hasn't reached full speed ahead yet). Ultimately, there is little we (America) can do to influence this situation because we are not tied economically to Russia. If Europe is unable, or unwilling, to deal with this problem my fear is it will get worse.
There were news reports that Germany and the US are trying to give Russia a chance to back down without losing face. They called it an "off-ramp." It will be funny when Putin offers them a chance to retreat without losing face.
He should offer to buy the Crimea. He would never have to pay, but everyone could pretend it was a legitimate business transaction.
https://i.imgflip.com/78w53.jpg
Don Quixote
03-05-14, 11:30 AM
hillary-clinton-compares-vladimir-putins-actions-in-ukraine-to-adolf-hitlers-in-nazi-germany (http://www.presstelegram.com/general-news/20140304/hillary-clinton-compares-vladimir-putins-actions-in-ukraine-to-adolf-hitlers-in-nazi-germany)
cameraman
03-05-14, 12:54 PM
hillary-clinton-compares-vladimir-putins-actions-in-ukraine-to-adolf-hitlers-in-nazi-germany (http://www.presstelegram.com/general-news/20140304/hillary-clinton-compares-vladimir-putins-actions-in-ukraine-to-adolf-hitlers-in-nazi-germany)
That's quite the campaign ad.
Wonder if she would have said the same thing if she was still Secretary of State..............:rolleyes:
Is everyone burned out on updates?
Russia scuttles old ship to blockade Ukrainian Navy
Ukraine Defence Ministry spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Alexei Mazepa said Russian sailors pulled the anti-submarine vessel Ochakov out of a naval junkyard and sank it in the straits that connect the Black Sea with a body of water known as Donuzlav Lake. He said the act was intended to prevent Ukrainian navy ships from leaving a nearby base and going to sea.
On Wednesday, the mouth of the bay was blocked by 10 Russian vessels including the formidable guided missile cruiser Moskva.
“The Black Sea fleet can sail in the Black Sea, but it has no right to block our navy harbour like this!” Mazepa said.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/russia-sinks-ship-to-block-urkrainian-naval-vessels-from-entering-black-sea-20140307-hvghs.html
If Blitzkrieg is German for "lightning war", what's Russian for "slow motion war"?
It's laughable that the press is playing along with this "troops believed to be Russian" game. Russia continues to consolidate control over Crimea as the world threatens to start using even harsher language to condemn the invasion.
Tanks on a Train
Internet says Russian troops are "gathering" across the border from the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv. Somebody posted a video of Russian tanks being transported by rail. Could be anywhere though.
They look like BMD-2 vehicles. Not mainline battle tanks.
http://youtu.be/ZYC2HingjSk
http://i59.tinypic.com/9h5351.jpg
http://s21.postimg.org/qrhm2w653/toles03162014.jpg
Heard an interesting thought today:
The Ukrainian soldiers still in Crimea are now the invading force. If they don't surrender, Putin can declare their presence on Russian soil is an act of war.
That is messed up.:flaming:
I don't know if all 7,000 have been called up at one time, or if they'll be trained in smaller batches during the year. I would like to believe the army has been planning this all along, but why wait until almost April to announce it?
Polish army to train 7000 reservists
Poland's army has announced that it intends to train 7000 reservists in 2014, though the move is not related to the Ukraine crisis, a top military brass says.
“The training has nothing to do with the current situation on the international arena,” claimed Lieutenant-Colonel Janusz Lojko."
http://www.thenews.pl/1/9/Artykul/165954,Polish-army-to-train-7000-reservists
cameraman
03-25-14, 05:14 PM
I don't know if all 7,000 have been called up at one time, or if they'll be trained in smaller batches during the year. I would like to believe the army has been planning this all along, but why wait until almost April to announce it?
The simplest answer would be that we don't know the calendar that they use for making the announcements. It could easily be that this the normal time of year for the announcement. Not everything happens on Jan 1.
KaBoom21
03-26-14, 11:48 AM
637
No worries, Russia is just a regional power now. :gomer:
cameraman
03-27-14, 12:43 PM
This is the most accurate explanation that I have seen so far
http://thedailyshow.cc.com/videos/5h8y05/putin-doesn-t-give-a-s--t
TravelGal
03-27-14, 07:32 PM
This is the most accurate explanation that I have seen so far
http://thedailyshow.cc.com/videos/5h8y05/putin-doesn-t-give-a-s--t
Yep. Said with many more printable words by the LA Times but the same thing nevertheless.
So are these really "armed pro-russian activists" or is Putin just being a little more subtle about putting his troops in?
http://apnews.myway.com//article/20140412/DAD4PAS00.html
cameraman
04-12-14, 05:17 PM
I doubt that they are Russian military but I am quite sure that they draw paychecks from the Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation...
chop456
04-17-14, 07:39 AM
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27065782
"The Federation Council [upper house of parliament] granted the president the right to use military force in Ukraine. I really hope that I do not have to exercise that right and that we are able to solve all today's pressing issues via political and diplomatic means," Mr Putin said.
:laugh:
At least it's all legal. :)
Ukrainian air show over "pro-Russian" citizens.
The locals don't look too worried. Dude didn't even put the phone down. :D
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8HttK_s534
Meanwhile, closer to home....
http://theaviationist.com/2014/04/17/russian-tug-off-us/
Probably has something to do with the landing legs test: http://www.space.com/25484-spacex-daring-reusable-rocket-launch-test.html
See a tank, stop a tank.
This video supposedly shows East Ukrainian civilians protesting against West Ukrainian soldiers sent to reclaim the town of Kramatorsk (I'm sure it's lovely). Everyone is excited about the lady stopping stepping in front of a moving tank, but there's a guy in the background doing the same thing.
Could all be Russian propaganda though. Who knows?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8K3Qa750ZEI
I missed this at the time, but F1 says they won't cancel the Russian GP in Sochi.
http://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/no-f1-boycott-to-punish-russia-lauda/
The US wouldn't retaliate and cancel the USGP, right?
No, but the Cuban rebels (Castro) kidnapped Fangio once during their little revolt, maybe we take Kvyat hostage in Austin in return for world peace?
The journalist in this report is being held by pro-Russian forces as a possible spy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VNig07RtWxA
In this prior video of the pro Russian takeover of a police station at the end there is a clip of a soldier mustering the police officers claiming to be a Lieutenant in the Russian army.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MTdkY8tl2b0
Eastern Ukraine is as good as gone and there's no sign that anybody is willing or able to do anything about it. Russia has established a process where they can annex any territory where Russians live.
If only there was a way for everyone to step back and de-escalate the situation.
I'm sure that's why Russia sent two bombers to NATO airspace. It was a peace mission.
The Dutch ministry identified the planes as two Russian TU-95 Bears, and said it had launched two F-16s from Volkel air force base to intercept them. The Russian jets were escorted by aircraft from the Netherlands, Britain and Denmark until they departed.
http://time.com/73987/dutch-scramble-jets-after-russian-bombers-approach/
All Quiet on the Eastern Front.
video description says these Russian vehicles are on the Ukrainian border. Not confirmed.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgvHPWpF0eQ
I wonder if they'll open with an artillery barrage. Russians love artillery barrages.
Ukraine has shut off the supply of fresh water to the Crimean peninsula.
http://en.itar-tass.com/world/729666
Crimea and Russia say, "No big deal-ski."
http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_04_26/Crimean-authorities-say-they-have-fallback-water-supply-plan-not-dependent-on-Kiev-3544/
NATO has moved 62 warplanes + 5 support aircraft to the Eastern Front.
It's a huge geographic area, but that number of planes is similar to the size of the air wing on an aircraft carrier.
I have this image of Putin dressed like Count von Count counting the planes.
"One NATO warplanes, two NATO warplanes, three NATO warplanes...ah ah ah. I love counting NATO warplanes!"
click for bigger.
http://www.janes360.com/images/assets/125/37125/UkraineRussia3.pdf
http://www.janes.com/article/37123/update-france-sends-rafale-fighters-to-poland
http://s29.postimg.org/gxvrd5lw3/20140429_NATO1.jpg] (http://postimg.org/image/gxvrd5lw3/)
Pro-Russian thugs attacking pro-Ukraine protesters.
http://www.businessinsider.com/disturbing-photos-of-pro-russian-separatists-2014-4
Of course this is why Putin needs to step in and protect ethnic Russians from oppression. :rolleyes:
Trouble in Odessa now. Pro-Russian group seizes Union Trade building. Pro-Ukrainian group burns building down killing 38.
In Eastern Ukraine, the Kiev government sent troops into Slovyansk to retake the town. Pro-Russian "civilian" defenders shot down two government helicopters and repelled the attack.
Elections to elect a new government for Ukraine are scheduled for May 25th.
Eastern Ukraine is planning its own vote on May 11th to join Russia.
http://www.voanews.com/content/gunfire-blasts-heard-in-eastern-ukraine/1905925.html
Yep, Ukraine reports they are attacking "foreign mercenaries, terrorists and criminals." (who have shoulder-launch AA missiles!) Sounds like this will be all Putin needs to do what everyone EXPECTS he will do. Russian sources decided it was important to mention that Ukraine govt. forces include "English speakers."
Know your Russian troop movements.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2014/05/02/map-how-ukraine-and-russia-are-moving-toward-war/
http://i62.tinypic.com/334q0xe.jpg
A buddy is deployed to Georgia. He's been there since just before the Ukraine flared up.
Not exactly sure what he's doing there. So there are Russian troops and US Marines BOTH in Georgia??
A buddy is deployed to Georgia. He's been there since just before the Ukraine flared up.
Not exactly sure what he's doing there. So there are Russian troops and US Marines BOTH in Georgia??
Sort of. Russia invaded Georgia under the pretext of protecting ethnic Russians in the Georgian provinces of South Osettia and Abkhazia. They left "peace keeping" forces in those two provinces when they withdrew most of their forces.
These articles say the Marines are training Georgian soldiers in Georgia and Germany before they deploy to Afghanistan, where they support NATO operations.
http://www.stripes.com/news/marines-in-helmand-help-georgians-become-fighting-force-1.269171
http://www.mcscg.marines.mil/News/NewsArticleDisplay/tabid/2925/Article/160256/republic-of-georgia-troops-train-alongside-marines-during-rehearsal-exercise.aspx
The first article had a quote from a Georgian official about the partnership:
“It is in our interest to have as many troops here [in Afghanistan] as possible,” so they can gain combat experience, Gurgenidze said.
Someone is getting ready for something.
Article on the state Russia may be trying to carve out of Ukraine.
http://www.interpretermag.com/transdniestria-first-liberated-part-of-novorossiya-russian-commentator-says/
Know your theoretical Republic of Novorossiya.
http://i62.tinypic.com/2me1r1x.jpg
Russians love rockets.
This barrage was set off a day before the anniversary of the end of WWII.
Happy Victory in Europe Day, comrades!
http://youtu.be/v71eF8HdZb8
from Jalopnik:
Random Dude Fires Tank Abandoned On Ukraine Street
This is what happens when you leave a tank parked on a city street.
According to these LiveLeak and YouTube posts, a BMP light tank was reportedly left stalled on a city street near Mariupol. Like, a gassed-up, loaded tank. Ready to roll. Ready to obliterate some separatists.
http://jalopnik.com/random-dude-fires-tank-abandoned-on-ukraine-street-1577379277
skip to 0:46 seconds :shakehead:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNEhkSyvhyA
<M*A*S*H>Frank Burns </M*A*S*H>
<M*A*S*H>Frank Burns </M*A*S*H>
:D:thumbup:
Ukraine claims troops attacked by artillery fire from Russia
The Pentagon's top officer called the Russian shelling of Ukrainian army positions reflects President Vladmir Putin's "very aggressive" pursuit of objectives in Europe.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/07/25/ukraine-russia-military-artillery-targets/13147421/
That Putin is a wascally wabbit!
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