View Full Version : Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370
Insomniac
03-08-14, 12:42 PM
The search for a commercial jetliner that seemingly vanished without warning between Malaysia and Vietnam continued into the night as dark fell on Asia, officials said.
Nobody knows what happened to Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370, other than air traffic controllers lost track of it not long after it left Kuala Lumpur, the capital of Malaysia, on its way to Beijing.
The families and loved ones of the 239 passengers and crew aboard expected the worst as they awaited any significant development.
http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/08/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-plane-missing/index.html?hpt=hp_t1
:(
Reading the stuff about stolen passports, I wonder if it was a terrorist attack?
Don Quixote
03-08-14, 12:57 PM
Reading the stuff about stolen passports, I wonder if it was a terrorist attack?
Sure seems likely.
I would think the likelihood of an airliner at altitude experiencing such a catastrophe that the crew didn’t have time to call mayday is unlikely. If it wasn’t terrorism, maybe there was some hazardous cargo that shouldn’t have been on board. Is the possible that some military inadvertently shot it down? Maybe intentionally?
TravelGal
03-08-14, 02:34 PM
I've been watching this since last night. The silence (lack of further information) is deafening. To ask a simplistic question, even if the plane plummeted from the sky, wouldn't there be some evidence of that on the radar? I mean, how does the blip just go blank?
In a further question, how can stolen passport numbers still be used? Malaysian is extremely advanced in their IT structure. I should think the stolen numbers would be blacklisted and flagged at check in. I have some good buddies up in the ranks of MH. I'll try to remember to ask them sometime after they finish dealing with this. Bad news, that's for sure.
edit: gjc2 wrote what I was thinking of. That is-- intentionally shot down. I sure hope not. It would make Ukraine and Venezuela look like park picnics.
Kiwifan
03-08-14, 03:08 PM
Something doesn't add up, maybe I have been watching too many Air Crash Investigations but nearly always the crew can get some message out....
A couple of Kiwis on board, names released this morning. :cry:
cameraman
03-08-14, 04:06 PM
Just remember Air France 447. You can still lose a major airliner with no radio message and it can take years to figure out what happened.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_France_Flight_447
I would think the likelihood of an airliner at altitude experiencing such a catastrophe that the crew didn’t have time to call mayday is unlikely. If it wasn’t terrorism, maybe there was some hazardous cargo that shouldn’t have been on board. Is the possible that some military inadvertently shot it down? Maybe intentionally?
There were no crew communications when Air France Flight 447 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_France_Flight_447) disappeared over the Atlantic. Basically the crew didn't realize how catastrophic their situation had become until it was too late. So it's not impossible.
Cameraman beat me to it while I was reading the article. :) Not a very well written article. The root cause in that case was pitot tube icing that confused the flight control system and caused it behave differently than the pilots expected. It appears that some references to that problem have been removed which leaves the description of events kind of disjointed.
I said unlikely, not impossible. The catastrophic failure in the flight 447 case was in the brains of the two pilots on the flight deck. Maybe something like that happened in this case. The type of failure I was referring to was one where the aircraft broke apart.
opinionated ow
03-09-14, 12:38 AM
If it had been on the other side of Vietnam in the South China Sea I wouldn't have been surprised to hear it fell afoul of military action given the proximity to the new East China Sea ADIZ that the Chinese set-up...
The stolen passports make you wonder though. One is negligible but two is more than a coincidence...
Kiwifan
03-09-14, 01:31 AM
Just found out my daughter in laws folks were on the previous same flight. :eek:
Landed safe but were shocked to hear the news obviously. Crikey.
Andrew Longman
03-09-14, 09:58 AM
These aircraft throw off all sorts of automated text messages to report when things aren't working and such, including hijacking.That helped figure out what happened to the air France flight. So far nothing like that on this that would indicate a problem. I read a report yesterday that a flight tracking service lost the gps tracking beacon at 1:30 am but traffic control didn't lose it on radar until 2:40. And now there are rumors that the plane had reverse course. Doesn't add up.
As for the passports Malaysia is notorious for lax visa rules and such. People who want more freedom to plan things without being noticed often do it there. Part of 9/11 was planned there. But why attack a Malaysian airliner with mostly Chinese on it? The tickets however for the false passports and a few others were sold through a code share deal in china. Hmmmm
http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/09/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-plane/index.html?hpt=hp_t1
The two passengers who used the passports in question appear to have bought their tickets together.
The tickets were bought from China Southern Airlines at identical prices, paid in Thailand's baht currency, according to China's official e-ticket verification system Travelsky. The ticket numbers are contiguous, which indicates the tickets were issued together.
The two tickets booked with China Southern Airlines both start in Kuala Lumpur, flying to Beijing, and then onward to Amsterdam. The Italian passport's ticket continues to Copenhagen, the Austrian's to Frankfurt.
Very suspicious however why buy tickets from KL to Beijing and then on to Amsterdam if you were going to blow up the plane before Beijing?
Tifosi24
03-09-14, 05:11 PM
http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/09/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-plane/index.html?hpt=hp_t1
Very suspicious however why buy tickets from KL to Beijing and then on to Amsterdam if you were going to blow up the plane before Beijing?
Possibly to throw people off the scent if they were afraid they might be caught on short notice.
Don Quixote
03-09-14, 05:39 PM
They probably didn't have a Chinese visa. I don't think your final destination can be in China unless you show a visa before you get on the plane.
Don't need a Visa if there 72 hours, but good point. Applying for a Visa using stolen passports probably (hopefully) would have raised a red flag.
5.Citizens from 51 countries under the 72-hour Transit Visa Exemption Program with valid international traveling documents and a transit flight ticket with confirmed date of flight and seat for a third country (region) traveling within 72 hours can apply for the 72-hour transit visa exemption at the ports of entry of the airports in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Chengdu, which are: 1) 24 Schengen countries in Europe: Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherland, Poland, Portugal, Slovak, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland. 2) 13 other European countries: Russia, Great Britain, Ireland, Cyprus, Bulgaria, Romania and Ukraine, Serbia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Macedonia and Albania. 3)6 American countries: The United States, Canada, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and Chile. 4) 2 Oceanian countries: Australia and New Zealand. 5) 6 Asian countries: Republic of Korea, Japan, Singapore, Brunei, United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. For details, please click the link http://www.mps.gov.cn/n16/n84147/n84196/3912430.html.
http://www.visaforchina.org/SGP_EN/generalinformation/visaknowledge/258911.shtml
TravelGal
03-09-14, 06:53 PM
The tickets however for the false passports and a few others were sold through a code share deal in china. Hmmmm
Made me look. Now I really feel bad for Malaysia Airlines. It was their aircraft so they get the press but it was apparently sold as the CZ codeshare MH/KL to Amsterdam. This sort of thing isn't all that unusual. In fact, it's so prevalent that the DOT makes fake calls to domestic agencies to suss out whether they are disclosing the codeshares properly. $10,000 fine if they don't. :eek: What adds to the drama is that you say the tickets were purchased in Thailand. Even more, it does seem odd to purchase a ticket all the way to AMS for $1,000 USD (equivalent) when the KUL/PEK part is only $380 USD (equivalent). The plot thickens.
Given the corruption in that part of the world, it is just as likely illegal immigration and/or someone hiding from the authorities as it is a terrorist attack.
The aircraft involved previously had structural damage to one of its wings.
That's where I'm placing my bet.
Reports that the Vietnamese found a door floating near the oil slicks. Nothing confirmed.
http://www.malaysia-chronicle.com/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=240501:mh370-found-at-last?-vietnam-searchers-find-pieces-of-door-airplane-tail&Itemid=2#axzz2vaWrcRnv
I hope the end was quick and painless. :(
http://s29.postimg.org/n7ki5bvlj/AI_CH170_MALFLI_G_20140309112105.jpg
cameraman
03-11-14, 12:23 PM
A whole lot of nothing. The two stolen passports were immigration cases which was the expected reason. The plane must not have broken up in flight as that creates large debris fields and all manner of floating bits and pieces. After several days they would have found something. I can't help but wonder if it did turn back and crashed in the forest.
Conspiracy theory, or is it possible to hack a 777? :confused:
Special Conditions: Boeing Model 777-200, -300, and -300ER Series Airplanes; Aircraft Electronic System Security Protection From Unauthorized Internal Access
The proposed architecture is novel or unusual for commercial transport airplanes by enabling connection to previously isolated data networks connected to systems that perform functions required for the safe operation of the airplane. This proposed data network and design integration may result in security vulnerabilities from intentional or unintentional corruption of data and systems critical to the safety and maintenance of the airplane. The existing regulations and guidance material did not anticipate this type of system architecture or electronic access to aircraft systems. Furthermore, regulations and current system safety assessment policy and techniques do not address potential security vulnerabilities, which could be caused by unauthorized access to aircraft data buses and servers.
The Special Conditions
Accordingly, pursuant to the authority delegated to me by the Administrator, the following special conditions are issued as part of the type certification basis for Boeing Model 777-200, -300, -300ER series airplanes modified by The Boeing Company.
1. The applicant must ensure that the design provides isolation from, or airplane electronic system security protection against, access by unauthorized sources internal to the airplane. The design must prevent inadvertent and malicious changes to, and all adverse impacts upon, airplane equipment, systems, networks, or other assets required for safe flight and operations.
Jeffrey E. Duven,
Acting Manager, Transport Airplane Directorate, Aircraft Certification Service.
Filed 11-15-13; 8:45 am
https://www.federalregister.gov/articles/2013/11/18/2013-27343/special-conditions-boeing-model-777-200--300-and--300er-series-airplanes-aircraft-electronic-system
A whole lot of nothing. The two stolen passports were immigration cases which was the expected reason. The plane must not have broken up in flight as that creates large debris fields and all manner of floating bits and pieces. After several days they would have found something. I can't help but wonder if it did turn back and crashed in the forest.
I wonder if there will be more stringent checks on the validity of passports used? It would take a massive network to do so.
Argh. Stupid press reporting that calls to passenger cell phones are still going through even though they explain later in the story that a ringing sound on the line doesn't mean that there is a phone receiving anything on the other end. "News" organizations know very well that a lot of people don't read that far but they insist on trolling with these provocative headlines. :irked:
TravelGal
03-11-14, 05:21 PM
I wonder if there will be more stringent checks on the validity of passports used? It would take a massive network to do so.
Yep, it's called the TSA. I'm *assuming* those pesky entries didn't have to be made preflight, however, since the flights didn't touch US airspace.
Argh. Stupid press reporting that calls to passenger cell phones are still going through even though they explain later in the story that a ringing sound on the line doesn't mean that there is a phone receiving anything on the other end. "News" organizations know very well that a lot of people don't read that far but they insist on trolling with these provocative headlines. :irked:
I wish they would even CARE how heartless that is. Double Argh. :mad:
pfc_m_drake
03-11-14, 09:25 PM
I was flying through Hong Kong about 3 weeks ago (during the period where there was concerns about new shoe bombing tactics). I was *stunned* at the lax security. They had setup some 'extra' security checkpoints to check carry-on luggage prior to boarding (in accordance with US recommendations at that time), but it was clearly all for show.
And the people checking passports might as well not have been bothering. I'm not even sure they matched the name on my passport to the name on my ticket. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt - maybe they're just ridiculously good at their job, but I'm skeptical. Maybe it was just me because I look American enough. For that matter, you can scam the whole system by packing a box of highlighter markers. :shakehead: Needless to say I didn't feel very safe. :flaming:
In any event, it's starting to look more like either terrorism or an inside job. Transponder was apparently deactivated and the plane continued to fly for another hour and 10 minutes in a completely different direction. http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/11/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-plane/index.html?hpt=hp_t1
I heard on CNN earlier today that only 30 of the 190 member countries of Interpol check passports against the lost and stolen travel document database. Bet that will change.
Couldn't find anything on CNN to back that up but this is close
http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/10/travel/malaysia-airlines-stolen-passports/
cameraman
03-11-14, 11:23 PM
The Malaysian military is backing away from reports that it tracked a missing passenger jet far away from its intended flight path, casting further doubt on the plane's whereabouts. In a statement Wednesday, Air Force chief Rodzali Daud said he could not rule out that the Malaysia Airlines jetliner veered drastically off course. But he said a media report that claimed the military tracked the jet over the Strait of Malacca was "clearly an inaccurate and incorrect report."
These people are wholly incompetent. They either have a radar trace record or they don't. Look at the ****ing recordings and determine what is there. It. isn't. hard. Same for the ACARS data. They either have it or they don't. Check the damned database and make a statement.
As for the ACARS data it turns out that it is up to the airline what data to collect and how often to send it. There are no standards. So if Malaysia Airlines was cutting corners then there might not be much ACARS data beyond the relative little that Rolls Royce collected.
Rolls Royce, received two data reports from flight MH370 at its global engine health monitoring centre in Derby, UK, where it keeps real-time tabs on its engines in use. One was broadcast as MH370 took off from Kuala Lumpur International Airport, the other during the 777's climb out towards Beijing.
If you see reports about the IGARI waypoint here is a map that makes some sense of it all
http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BiSR3rICQAAIkzf.jpg:large
Another side note. In 2007 an AdamAir 737 crashed into the ocean just west of Sulawesi in Indonesia. It took 10 days before the first floating debris was recovered and 25 days before the US Navy located the FDR. The plane was at the same altitude at the Malaysian Air flight. The cause was gross flight crew error. There was a malfunction in one of the systems and both pilots were engrossed in troubleshooting the problem. They managed to disengage the autopilot in the process and the plane immediately rolled right and the pilots were spatially disoriented and unable to recover.
Dude on the Today Show was talking about civilian radar versus military radar. Said military radar could only "paint" that an aircraft was there - it could not ping the transponder nor determine anything else other than the presence of an aircraft. I didn't have time to run back the DVR, but I swear he also said the military radar could not determine air speed or altitude.
:confused:
Tifosi24
03-12-14, 10:07 AM
Dude on the Today Show was talking about civilian radar versus military radar. Said military radar could only "paint" that an aircraft was there - it could not ping the transponder nor determine anything else other than the presence of an aircraft. I didn't have time to run back the DVR, but I swear he also said the military radar could not determine air speed or altitude.
:confused:
:confused: x 2. Maybe his analysis is related to the Malaysian military, but, if I were a Malay, I would be more than a little scared if my government's radar can't determine air speed or altitude or an unknown target. I can maybe understand the transponder comment.
I read this morning that some in the Malaysian military are backing away from the comments that the plane was last spotted in the Straits of Malacca, and the Vietnamese military is getting annoyed at the lack of reliable information coming from the Malaysians. I don't think anything totally weird is going on here, but I am getting the feeling that the Malaysian military is holding things back because they don't want people to know about horrible deficiencies in their defense systems. It seems more like foul play of some kind to me, but a former pilot on CNN said it could have been a catastrophic loss of power. Seems unlikely to me given the redundancies on the 777, but he did say that the 777 is designed to fly for a given amount of time after such an event, and the plane happened to continue flying for about that amount of time. That being said, even without any power, I would have assumed that people, or the pilots, could have phoned someone when they flew back over land, and there appears to be several large airports in that area (e.g., Langkawi) where you could land the plane with some help from ATCs. That is the extent of my uneducated opinion at this time.
:confused: x 2. Maybe his analysis is related to the Malaysian military, but, if I were a Malay, I would be more than a little scared if my government's radar can't determine air speed or altitude or an unknown target.
Missing Jet Search Now Covers Area Almost the Size of Indiana (http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/missing-jet/missing-jet-search-now-covers-area-almost-size-indiana-n50666)
From the Today Show:
Rodzali stressed that the military radar information needed to be corroborated. While civilian radar screens display the identity of aircraft, military radar only shows objects it has detected.
opinionated ow
03-12-14, 12:05 PM
Missing Jet Search Now Covers Area Almost the Size of Indiana (http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/missing-jet/missing-jet-search-now-covers-area-almost-size-indiana-n50666)
From the Today Show:
I can partially explain that. The 'radar' that we've used traditionally in civilian radar consists of two systems, primary and secondary. The primary just makes a paint on the screen and from that they can work out some vague information. The Secondary Surveilance Radar is a two-way communication system between the radar transmitter and transponders fitted in the aircraft. The SSR has multiple settings-what we call Mode A which is just an identification-a discrete code for airline and other IFR operations and some VFR operations or a generic code. (one of the generic codes is for a hijack situation). Mode C has been the standard for about the past 50 years and has a barometric altimeter in the transponder and encodes a read-out into the transmission. This is then corrected for local-pressure at the ground station and displayed on the radar screen as the code and the altitude. More advanced radar displays can turn that code into a flight number or callsign as need be.
Recent technology has invented what they call 'Mode S' or ADS-B which incorporates a lot more information into the transmission. Given that ADS-B isn't universally found in the western world, I would not be in the least bit surprised if Malaysia, Vietnam or other places along that flight path don't have ADS-B capabilities. What information is contained in an ADS-B broadcast is something of which I'm not entirely sure. We're not required to have it in our Australia non-jetliners until sometime between 2017 and 2021 iirc.
The situation seems to be that the aircraft's transponder either failed or was disabled prior to the point where it changed heading. So after that even though it may show up on primary radar it's very much a "connect the dots" process to figure out speed and heading.
I can partially explain that.
Thanks!
Amazing that we can do this:
Police firing GPS tracking 'bullets' at cars during chases (http://news.cnet.com/8301-17852_3-57609416-71/police-firing-gps-tracking-bullets-at-cars-during-chases/)
Two other lieutenants were also fired; they were accused of falsifying their time sheets, misusing their county-owned vehicles and racking up overtime.
In all of the cases investigators with Orange County Fire Rescue compared the workers’ time sheets to the GPS tracking devices in their county vehicles.
(http://www.statter911.com/2014/03/10/three-orange-county-fl-lieutenants-fired-accused-padding-timesheets-ot/)
And things like "Find my iPhone", we can use cellphones to geolocate 911 calls, send cruise missiles through windows, etc....
But we can lose a 777??? :shakehead:
Try using Find My iPhone over water. Not much luck if there's no tower in range.
My money is still on pilot error.
There's a story out there about one of the cockpit crew letting two teenagers ride in the cockpit for an entire flight. US Regulations don't allow that, but foreign airlines do. Sometimes it goes wrong, like Aeroflot 593: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aeroflot_Flight_593
If this was terrorism, groups would be lined up around the block claiming responsibility.
Don Quixote
03-12-14, 05:35 PM
If this was terrorism, groups would be lined up around the block claiming responsibility.
Unless it was a government.
Mr. Vengeance
03-12-14, 06:44 PM
Wolf Blitzer really, really wants this to be an act of terrorism. Pathetic.
Try using Find My iPhone over water. Not much luck if there's no tower in range.
I didn't mean for finding the plane. But if we have the the technology to make these trackable thru GPS, we can make the same happen for a multimillion dollar aircraft. Sadly, it is not that we can't - it's that they've chosen not to.
Wolf Blitzer really, really wants this to be an act of terrorism. Pathetic.
CNN needs ratings. A terrorist act would increase that.
/cynical
cameraman
03-12-14, 08:48 PM
The AdamAir 737 crash was distracted pilots combined with poor training and a lethal mistake with the autopilot. This crash occurred very near a scheduled course change. I still think the most likely cause is some type of pilot error. Incorrect programming of the autopilot relating to the course change seems as good a guess as any.
These people are wholly incompetent.
One problem the investigators will have to deal with is the cultural tendency to deny any mistakes. I just watched a press conference with a smiling Malaysian Transport Minister refusing to admit they don't know where the plane went. :\
I’m hearing this morning that the aircraft may have continued flying for several hours after the transponder stopped working. Apparently the engines are equipped with transponders that send information on their status to Rolls Royce. Those devices continued sending data for as long as four hours after the transponder used by air traffic controllers stopped.
In the four hours it may have continued to fly it could have made it as far as Pakistan. Maybe the aircraft has been stolen, and the passengers kidnapped.
chop456
03-13-14, 08:05 AM
Mr Hussein also denied a report in the Wall Street Journal that the plane had sent engine data to the ground for more than four hours after it lost contact with air traffic control.
He said that his team had spoken to Malaysian Airlines and Rolls-Royce, the engine's manufacturers, who both said the report was "inaccurate".
"The last transmission from the aircraft was at 01:07 which indicated that everything was normal," Mr Hussein said.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26559627
Opposite Lock
03-13-14, 10:57 AM
I came across the blog of a pilot yesterday, whose speculation made a somewhat compelling case for terrorism. She theorizes that they were attempting to "create another 911 event", and the reason that no one has yet taken credit is because they failed:
Why has nobody taken credit?
Because they failed!
If they were planning on blowing up a plane, credit would be taken.
They are not showing their hand because they plan on doing this again and do not want us to know who they are.
Link to her whole post: http://karlenepetitt.blogspot.com/2014/03/mh-370-time-to-speculate.html?m=1
opinionated ow
03-13-14, 11:21 AM
I fear this is going to end up with more conspiracy theories than JFK, the moon landing, Martin Luther-King and 9/11 combined at this rate...
Opposite Lock
03-13-14, 12:04 PM
I fear this is going to end up with more conspiracy theories than JFK, the moon landing, Martin Luther-King and 9/11 combined at this rate...
I wouldn't be too hasty to rule out reverse vampires either.
Interesting read from a 777 captain: http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/12/opinion/abend-malaysia-370/index.html
A little clarification from the WSJ story:
The investigators believe the plane flew for a total of up to five hours, according to these people, based on analysis of signals sent by the Boeing BA -2.15% 777's satellite-communication link designed to automatically transmit the status of certain onboard systems to the ground.
Throughout the roughly four hours after the jet dropped from civilian radar screens, these people said, the link operated in a kind of standby mode and sought to establish contact with a satellite or satellites. These transmissions did not include data, they said, but the periodic contacts indicate to investigators that the plane was still intact and believed to be flying.
Investigators are still working to fully understand the information, according to one person briefed on the matter. The transmissions, this person said, were comparable to the plane "saying I'm here, I'm ready to send data."
Possibly deliberate is how I read this.
http://abcnews.go.com/International/us-officials-malaysia-airline-crashed-indian-ocean/t/story?id=22894802&ref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2F
The theory that the aircraft was flown to and then landed in a remote area seems to be gaining steam.
Tifosi24
03-14-14, 07:40 AM
The theory that the aircraft was flown to and then landed in a remote area seems to be gaining steam.
It may be gaining steam, but I just don't know where you could have flown it to, given the fuel load, and landed it without anyone knowing by now. If there are nutters in Indonesia, I suppose you could have got it below radar and then landed it in a jungle area, but this plane needs a very large piece of land to get out of the sky safely. I did some mapping and you could theoretically have flown it to Pakistan, but that would require flying over India, and my hunch is that the Indian military is better prepared to intercept unknown aircraft flying over their territory than the Malaysians.
Missing Malaysia plane deliberately flown off course, radar data suggests: sources (http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/chi-missing-malaysia-plane-20140314,0,1501655.story)
"What we can say is we are looking at sabotage, with hijack still on the cards," said that source, a senior Malaysian police official.
:(
I wouldn't think your average hijacker would know how to shut off most of the transmitters. Starting to sound like something you would read in a thriller novel.
cameraman
03-14-14, 01:21 PM
How many 5000 ft runways are there where no one would notice a Boeing 777 turning up unexpectedly? The Indian military is on a semi-war footing at all times due to issues with Pakistan and China. They wouldn't miss a 777 cruising along.
This whole thing is nuts, for every piece of "information" there are half a dozen reasons why it can't have happened. It almost sounds like a near total electrical failure and they got lost flying blind. But even that makes no sense as there are protocols for lost aircraft radar patterns...
Tifosi24
03-14-14, 02:16 PM
I would go with total electrical failure, but it doesn't explain the transponders being turned off in order, or the fact that no one tried to use their phone when flying back over Malaysia. In terms of airstrips, unless they started flying under radar, I think I found two suitable runways in the Nicobars, an international airport and an Indian Air Force base (not exactly secret). This is turning into the most bizarre set of circumstances I have seen in my life. At this rate, Tom Clancy couldn't write this story.
I fear this is going to end up with more conspiracy theories than JFK, the moon landing, Martin Luther-King and 9/11 combined at this rate...
Listed in descending probability:
Aliens
Worm Hole
Time Travel
Dragons
Listed in descending probability:
Aliens
Worm Hole
Time Travel
Dragons
Meteorite
Added one that I saw a few days ago.
At any point now Miss Moneypenny should be ushering James Bond into Q's office to discuss this. Is there a hollowed out volcano in the neighborhood?
Air Pirates!
Who knew you could steal a 777 in mid-air and make a clean get away?
The changes in altitude, first above normal cruising elevation and then below, make sense if the pilot was trying to avoid air traffic without the help of air traffic controllers. Also, the report about a sudden loss of elevation, assuming it was intentional, would be a good way to fight off someone trying to retake the cockpit.
Why steal an airplane but not make any demands?
At any point now Miss Moneypenny should be ushering James Bond into Q's office to discuss this. Is there a hollowed out volcano in the neighborhood?
I was thinking that. Or maybe Austin Powers.
Why steal an airplane but not make any demands?
Maybe the demands haven't been made public?
It appears the satellite ping data from the plane was not shared with the Malaysians until after WSJ story on Thursday. Wonder what's up with that?
Insomniac
03-15-14, 02:17 PM
At this rate, Tom Clancy couldn't write this story.
He can't write any stories, died last year.
Or think of the terrorism possibilities with a 777 stripped of identification electronics, a few rogue weapons..........
Tifosi24
03-15-14, 02:35 PM
He can't write any stories, died last year.
Well played sir. I will rephrase, Tom Clancy in his prime couldn't have made this up.
Could Mr. Clancy be scripting this from beyond?
If it wasn't for the hundreds of innocent people involved I would really be enjoying this story.
If it wasn't for the hundreds of innocent people involved I would really be enjoying this story.
If this is a hoax, someone should be shot.
Tifosi24
03-15-14, 09:50 PM
If this is a hoax, someone should be shot.
This whole thing is beginning to sound more like the episode of Sherlock where MI6 and the CIA had the plane full of dead people to fool a terrorist organization.
On topic, I am a bit concerned about the distance the plane could have flown if it took the northerly route (If it took the southerly route, it is in the ocean). Based on the earlier information I had heard, I didn't think it was possible to make it to Pakistan without flying over India, but the information today would suggest that it would have been possible. It would be tricky, but whoever was flying it when it changed course certainly had the skill then, so I don't doubt they could do it again.
I wonder if the Israelis still have their Entebbe rescue plans on file.
cameraman
03-16-14, 12:55 AM
I still can't see how you could sneak that plane past the Chinese or the Indians/Pakistanis when flying over Kashmir which is a hot war zone.
I still can't see how you could sneak that plane past the Chinese or the Indians/Pakistanis when flying over Kashmir which is a hot war zone.
It's been done before.
http://youtu.be/gBgQIs5dWvE
Anytime you can stick a Star Trek reference in a thread is pure awesomeness. :thumbup:
There’s lots of talk about the plane continuing to fly for six hours or more, then using a 480 kts (550 mph) speed to determine how far it could have gone. But, if it flew a low altitude to avoid detection it wouldn’t have been able to go that fast. It may be closer than they think. I don’t know that flying a low altitude does avoid detection, but it sounds good.
I’m wondering if the change of altitude was for another reason. Maybe they intentionally blew cabin pressure and disabled the O2 system then flew to high altitude to disable if not kill the passengers. I’m not sure going to 45,000 feet is fatal to a healthy person but everyone would certainly pass out.
As far as being able to land; every published performance parameter for an aircraft has a large safety margin. The published distance needed to take off is at maximum gross weight, the landing distance assumes a full cargo/passenger load with although a low fuel load. With a skilled pilot who’s also willing to really push the safety envelope the plane could do amazing things.
Who would have thought an airliner could have ditched in the Hudson River without breaking up, only one person suffered an injury.
opinionated ow
03-16-14, 09:16 AM
There’s lots of talk about the plane continuing to fly for six hours or more, then using a 480 kts (550 mph) speed to determine how far it could have gone. But, if it flew a low altitude to avoid detection it wouldn’t have been able to go that fast. It may be closer than they think. I don’t know that flying a low altitude does avoid detection, but it sounds good.
I’m wondering if the change of altitude was for another reason. Maybe they intentionally blew cabin pressure and disabled the O2 system then flew to high altitude to disable if not kill the passengers. I’m not sure going to 45,000 feet is fatal to a healthy person but everyone would certainly pass out.
As far as being able to land; every published performance parameter for an aircraft has a large safety margin. The published distance needed to take off is at maximum gross weight, the landing distance assumes a full cargo/passenger load with although a low fuel load. With a skilled pilot who’s also willing to really push the safety envelope the plane could do amazing things.
Who would have thought an airliner could have ditched in the Hudson River without breaking up, only one person suffered an injury.
Depending on where the radar bases are located it is possible to do it-I know because I have (legally). Unless the person flying it was on oxygen, climbing a depressurised plane to that altitude would kill everyone including the pilot. The Helios Air crash circa 2003 was a case in point. Landing charts are published with a substantial fudge factor, usually 15% built into them. If they're not factored, we're required to increase the take-off and landing distance by 15% anyway.
Depending on where the radar bases are located it is possible to do it-I know because I have (legally). Unless the person flying it was on oxygen, climbing a depressurised plane to that altitude would kill everyone including the pilot. The Helios Air crash circa 2003 was a case in point. Landing charts are published with a substantial fudge factor, usually 15% built into them. If they're not factored, we're required to increase the take-off and landing distance by 15% anyway.
How low would they have to fly to avoid detection and how fast would they be able to go at that altitude?
Is it possible to disable the oxygen system for everyone except the flight deck crew?
How low would they have to fly to avoid detection?
They don't call it "wave-top" for nothing: 200-300 ft.
http://i58.tinypic.com/2iuesy0.png
cameraman
03-16-14, 12:18 PM
It depends on the country. I doubt Burma, Cambodia and Laos have much in the way of radar and the terrain would limit its range.
Insomniac
03-16-14, 02:57 PM
On CNN, someone (I think a former 777 pilot) said that the emergency oxygen system for passengers won't last that long. They mentioned it in the context of eliminating the passengers, so I assume the pilots have more oxygen than that. Can they repressurize after depressurizing?
Also, if this was a hijacking, it seems the southern possibility would be least likely, yet that's where they're focusing? If they were this sophisticated, you'd expect they had a destination, and from the southern track they either had nothing or flew around in circles for hours, which would make no sense if they were trying to avoid detection. If they wanted to crash it, they had hours. Another theory was failed terror attack, but that would only make sense if somehow auto-pilot took over after the attack failed.
Insomniac
03-16-14, 02:59 PM
Well played sir. I will rephrase, Tom Clancy in his prime couldn't have made this up.
Damon Lindelof and Carlton Cuse did (kinda). :D
Projected flight path update: ;)
http://www.flickr.com/photos/expd/13100212234/
Here's a theory so crazy, it might actually make sense: http://keithledgerwood.tumblr.com/post/79838944823/did-malaysian-airlines-370-disappear-using-sia68-sq68
And on the other side of the crazy spectrum, maybe there really was a mechanical problem that incapacitatd the flight crew: http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/16/opinion/palmer-malaysia-flight-370/index.html
Here's a theory so crazy, it might actually make sense: http://keithledgerwood.tumblr.com/post/79838944823/did-malaysian-airlines-370-disappear-using-sia68-sq68
I am doubtful about the 'radar shadow' theory. I'm just guessing that most radar systems can discriminate between one or two 777's even if they are flying close together. Also, the wing tip vortex coming off a 777 is large. You couldn't follow too close unless you were beneath it.
Sounds like that movie Down Periscope with Kelsey Grammer, where he hides his submarine under a tanker.
And on the other side of the crazy spectrum, maybe there really was a mechanical problem that incapacitatd the flight crew: http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/16/opinion/palmer-malaysia-flight-370/index.html
What could kill or incapacitate everyone onboard, knock out all communication, and disable the autopilot, but leave the plane intact with the engines running? Gamma ray burst?
Clearly we've enlisted all the world's greatest thinkers on this mystery...
https://twitter.com/Courtney/status/445475973891235840
Another non-crazy theory. Makes sense, except how does this electrical fire avoid damaging the autopilot?
http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/
cameraman
03-18-14, 02:09 PM
Another non-crazy theory. Makes sense, except how does this electrical fire avoid damaging the autopilot?
http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/
Depends on what part of the electrical system is on fire.
Another non-crazy theory. Makes sense, except how does this electrical fire avoid damaging the autopilot?
http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/
Yeah, I want this to be the reason. But then, why the fire? If it happened once, it can happen again.
Yeah, I want this to be the reason.
Agreed. :thumbup:
but...
Yes, pilots have access to oxygen masks, but this is a no-no with fire. Most have access to a smoke hood with a filter, but this will last only a few minutes depending on the smoke level. (I used to carry one in my flight bag, and I still carry one in my briefcase when I fly.)
How do you get a smoke hood past airport security? "That? Oh, that's for the fire." :saywhat:
Tifosi24
03-18-14, 09:28 PM
I also want it to be some sort of mechanical failure, but it doesn't explain the changes in course direction, especially after crossing Malaysia. There was a long discussion on the radio this afternoon about this very scenario and, the guest, a former American Airlines pilot (his name escapes me), believed that a fire, though possible, seemed highly unlikely given the plane's reaction after changing course and all of the transponders being shut off. He said that his reaction to an on-board fire would be declaring an emergency and finding the nearest suitable runway you can land on, and from this guy's research there were two suitable runways on the path across Malaysia. What he was most upset about was the reaction from the Malaysians, from the ATCs to the government. It was a solid five minute tirade.
A fairly simple explanation which makes sense to me....
The left turn is the key here. Zaharie Ahmad Shah1 was a very experienced senior captain with 18,000 hours of flight time. We old pilots were drilled to know what is the closest airport of safe harbor while in cruise. Airports behind us, airports abeam us, and airports ahead of us. They’re always in our head. Always. If something happens, you don’t want to be thinking about what are you going to do–you already know what you are going to do. When I saw that left turn with a direct heading, I instinctively knew he was heading for an airport. He was taking a direct route to Palau Langkawi, a 13,000-foot airstrip with an approach over water and no obstacles. The captain did not turn back to Kuala Lampur because he knew he had 8,000-foot ridges to cross. He knew the terrain was friendlier toward Langkawi, which also was closer.
For me, the loss of transponders and communications makes perfect sense in a fire. And there most likely was an electrical fire. In the case of a fire, the first response is to pull the main busses and restore circuits one by one until you have isolated the bad one. If they pulled the busses, the plane would go silent. It probably was a serious event and the flight crew was occupied with controlling the plane and trying to fight the fire. Aviate, navigate, and lastly, communicate is the mantra in such situations.
Article (http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/)
Ted
Obviously fire or mechanical problems are a real possibility. But if you look at cases of in-flight fires or mechanical problems it's very unusual for a flight crew to not make anyone on the ground aware of what's going on. The idea that this flight went from everything ok to having all communications disabled in a very short time span and then it was able to fly on for hours is difficult to believe. In almost all cases where a fire reaches the point of disabling communications the aircraft becomes unflyable within a matter of minutes after that. And while I understand the "aviate, navigate, communicate" mantra, it's rare for a pilot to not communicate as soon as he has to deviate from his normal flight path, even in a crisis.
None of this makes a fire scenario significantly less plausible than some of the other proposed explanations, it just doesn't seem to add up. Often in cases where things "don't add up" the missing piece is discovered to be human error. Pilots sometimes tune the wrong radio frequency or turn something off that's supposed to be on, or even pull the wrong breaker and disable communications.
cameraman
03-20-14, 12:01 AM
Well the Australians may have seen, by satellite, some floating wreckage well east of Perth. They are sending out Orions to look.
http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BjJE2v8CQAAX1dh.jpg:large
If that's the correct area then the plane was bound for Antarctica without enough fuel to get remotely close:saywhat:
chop456
03-20-14, 02:02 AM
Or the electrical fire theory has some truth to it and the plane went all Payne Stewart before they could land it. :\
chop456
03-20-14, 04:02 AM
Pretty amazing how much blatantly incorrect info CNN has up on their website right now.
Be first and be right. Or at least be first. :tony:
Andrew Longman
03-20-14, 06:23 AM
Or the electrical fire theory has some truth to it and the plane went all Payne Stewart before they could land it. :\decompression makes some sense. And the turn to find landing space fits with that too. Just don't know why there wasn't a mayday. Seems a better answer than suicide. Like if one of the pilots wanted to off himself why not put the plane in a dive, as two others have done, as opposed to running out of gas? I just hope they find the black boxes and if they could recover the air France boxes then anything is possible
Satellite images of a couple of pieces of debris floating in a remote part of the Indian Ocean don’t mean much until it can be confirmed what the floating junk is. There’s all kinds of junk floating in the world’s oceans.
datachicane
03-20-14, 08:00 PM
Satellite images of a couple of pieces of debris floating in a remote part of the Indian Ocean don’t mean much until it can be confirmed what the floating junk is. There’s all kinds of junk floating in the world’s oceans.
No doubt, but I suspect the Australians, along with a number of other countries, are understandably being a bit cagey about the extent of their capabilities while aiding the search.
No doubt, but I suspect the Australians, along with a number of other countries, are understandably being a bit cagey about the extent of their capabilities while aiding the search.
There's stories of military/ex-military people that are saying that the US most likely knows where it is, but can't tip their hand. Perhaps that's why some junk was unexpectedly found in an unlikely area?
(Where's my tinfoil?)
chop456
03-21-14, 01:41 AM
Occam frowns in your general direction.
TravelGal
03-21-14, 12:41 PM
There's stories of military/ex-military people that are saying that the US most likely knows where it is, but can't tip their hand. Perhaps that's why some junk was unexpectedly found in an unlikely area?
(Where's my tinfoil?)
Presumably Elvis is directing the search.
cameraman
03-21-14, 01:34 PM
Presumably Elvis is directing the search.
Nope, Jimmy Hoffa got that contract.
TravelGal
03-24-14, 01:50 PM
From today's ARTA newsletter. New news with more speculation.
We now find out that the missing jet was carrying highly flammable lithium batteries.
Malaysian Airlines has confirmed that flight MH370 had been carrying highly flammable lithium-ion batteries in its cargo hold, re-igniting speculation that a fire may have caused its disappearance. This information comes four days after the airline denied it. Lithium-ion batteries have caused 140 mid-air incidents in last 20 years. The devices are commonly used in mobile phones and laptops. They are classed as dangerous by The International Civil Aviation Organisation Reignites. A new theory is that the missing flight may have crashed after an on-board fire and that flames started in the cargo hold. That was the cause of a cargo plane loss in 2010. The plane was attempting an emergency landing as a battery had caught fire and filled the flight deck with smoke. The airline said the authorities were investigating the cargo, but did not regard the batteries as hazardous, despite the law, dictating they are classed as such -because they were packaged according to safety regulations. The revelation has thrown the spotlight back on the theory that the Boeing 777 may have been overcome by a fire, rendering the crew and passengers unconscious after inhaling toxic fumes.
Aaaaaand the crazies start to take hold: http://www.jewsnews.co.il/2014/03/25/malaysia-airlines-flight-370-now-clearly-a-government-cover-up-all-evidence-contradicts-official-story/
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