NFL 2014

[Insomniac]

Wait a minute. Brady comes back from suspension just in time to play the Colts? Is it just me or does this reek of ratings bonanza?
I just wouldn't put it past Goodell to try and engineer this. :saywhat:

Greg Hardy returns from his 10-game suspension to play the Panthers too. But I'd say more coincidence than anything. That requires a level of foresight that the league just doesn't have. :D

[Gnam]

I would compare this to a holding call that's away from the action but still results in a big play being called back. Total crap call, but part of the game.

The Patriots' draft was heavy on defensive players (7 of 11). I'm sure it was to replace the key players they lost to free agency, but with the backup QB in, they'll need a strong defense to keep the score close.


2015 Patriots' Draft
1st Round (32nd Overall) – Malcom Brown (DL, Texas)
2nd Round (64th Overall) – Jordan Richards (DB, Stanford)
3rd Round (97th Overall, Compensatory) – Geneo Grissom (DE, Oklahoma)
4th Round (101st Overall, Via TB – Logan Mankins) – Trey Flowers (DE, Arkansas)
4th Round (111st Overall, Via CLE) – Tre’ Jackson (OL, Florida State)
4th Round (131st Overall) – Shaq Mason (OL, Georgia Tech)
5th Round (166th Overall, Via GB) – Joe Cardona (LS, Navy)
6th Round (177th Overall, Via TB – Jonathan Casillas) – Matthew Wells (LB, Miss State)
6th Round (202nd Overall, Via CLE) – AJ Derby (TE, Arkansas)
7th Round (247th Overall, Via GB) – Darryl Roberts (CB, Marshall)
7th Round (253rd Overall, Compensatory) – Xzavier Dickson (DE/LB, Alabama)

[Insomniac]

Brady will appeal, but Kraft is already on the record stating they the Pats will accept any penalties. Is he a man of his word or Brady?

Yeah, that has changed. I don't think he ever thought the team would be hit like this. So, he's not a man of his word in this situation. I imagine if he knew six days ago what he learned yesterday, the original statement would've been quite different.

[Insomniac]

I would compare this to a holding call that's away from the action but still results in a big play being called back. Total crap call, but part of the game.

The Patriots' draft was heavy on defensive players (7 of 11). I'm sure it was to replace the key players they lost to free agency, but with the backup QB in, they'll need a strong defense to keep the score close.

I think they're going Giants style defense. Pass rush to cover up a weaker secondary. They've cleared out the depth chart this offseason. Top 3 guys from last year are all gone. Cut another who was at least #2 before Revis and Browner showed up.

SB hero Malcom Butler was #3 on that play, but he was definitely not #3 on the depth chart last year. He ended up playing after 2 other guys got benched first during the SB. The Seahawks played it smart. They put their best WRs inside and their other, real tall ones outside against <6' tall DBs. It took 2+ quarters to finally get someone on them who could minimize the deep jump balls.

[nrc]

Last year the Patriots had a slow start and then rebounded to slaughter the Bengals in week four. Not an enviable position for Indy this year. At least they have the Pats at home.

[Insomniac]

Last year the Patriots had a slow start and then rebounded to slaughter the Bengals in week four. Not an enviable position for Indy this year. At least they have the Pats at home.

Didn't help them last year to be at home. For reference: The Chicago Bears defeated the Washington Redskins, 73–0, the most one-sided victory in NFL history. :D

[Insomniac]

Patriots' Response: http://wellsreportcontext.com/

Most surprising thing I saw so far, they accuse the Colts of cheating previously as well.


Evidence was also provided that Indianapolis ball boys, in a prior season, had been seen by Jacksonville personnel with ball needles hidden under their long sleeves.

[dando]

Can I say I could care less about this enough? Just shut up, talking heads, etc. Enough. :\

[Insomniac]

Can I say I could care less about this enough? Just shut up, talking heads, etc. Enough. :\

You can, but I'd go with couldn't. ;)

[nrc]

Patriots' Response: http://wellsreportcontext.com/

Most surprising thing I saw so far, they accuse the Colts of cheating previously as well.

Wow. They're going for the Chewbacca defense.

[Insomniac]

Wow. They're going for the Chewbacca defense.

It's a bit all over the place min trying to explain everything, but a lot of good points are made in how the investigators could've tried to prove/disprove things and didn't. I'm concerned that the scientific facts are very much in question. I put all my reliance on that first which then shaped the texts. So if science says there was no tampering for the AFC championship, how does that shape everything else?

Is the league unlucky that these two guys were dumb enough to "joke" about deflating balls and smart enough to provide no smoking gun?

It does seem that Wells fully investigated how the Patriots may've done it, but didn't fully investigate an explanation that they didn't. He should've laid waste to every explanation they provided.

This whole thing has been handled badly by everyone and it's just going to keep getting worse.

[nrc]

It's a bit all over the place min trying to explain everything, but a lot of good points are made in how the investigators could've tried to prove/disprove things and didn't. I'm concerned that the scientific facts are very much in question. I put all my reliance on that first which then shaped the texts. So if science says there was no tampering for the AFC championship, how does that shape everything else?

Where does the science say that? The report says that results from the testing of the balls that more likely than not show tampering. Every rebuttal I've seen simply ignores parts of the report to rebut others. For example, the "he used the other gauge" rebuttal cited earlier in the thread ignores the fact that the Pats balls lost significantly more pressure than the Colts balls. The Pats balls also showed a level of variability that is hard to explain any other way.

They really are just spraying out so much nonsense that the average person isn't going to know what's true and what's not. They complain that McNally wasn't asked about his "deflator" moniker which they claim was because he was losing weight. But the Pats refused to make McNally available for a follow-up interview where they could have asked that question.

Then there's the whole "oh yeah, you didn't warn us so it's not fair and anyway we heard that so and so did such and such." What is this, grade school? If the Pats want to deny wrong-doing that's fine - but doubling down like this should embarrass anyone associated with the franchise.

[Insomniac]

Where does the science say that? The report says that results from the testing of the balls that more likely than not show tampering. Every rebuttal I've seen simply ignores parts of the report to rebut others. For example, the "he used the other gauge" rebuttal cited earlier in the thread ignores the fact that the Pats balls lost significantly more pressure than the Colts balls. The Pats balls also showed a level of variability that is hard to explain any other way.

They really are just spraying out so much nonsense that the average person isn't going to know what's true and what's not. They complain that McNally wasn't asked about his "deflator" moniker which they claim was because he was losing weight. But the Pats refused to make McNally available for a follow-up interview where they could have asked that question.

Then there's the whole "oh yeah, you didn't warn us so it's not fair and anyway we heard that so and so did such and such." What is this, grade school? If the Pats want to deny wrong-doing that's fine - but doubling down like this should embarrass anyone associated with the franchise.

The report says:


According to Exponent, based on the most likely pressure and temperature values for the Patriots game balls on the day of the AFC Championship Game (i.e., a starting pressure of 12.5 psi, a starting temperature of between 67 and 71 degrees and a final temperature of 48 degrees), the Ideal Gas Law predicts that the Patriots balls should have measured between 11.52 and 11.32 psi at the end of the first half, just before they were brought back into the Officials Locker Room.

Note that the starting value of 12.5 is Anderson's recollection. He also recalls he used the gauge that consistently had higher readings, but the Wells report decided his recollection on that is wrong.


Although Anderson‟s best recollection is that he used the Logo Gauge, he said that it is certainly possible that he used the Non-Logo Gauge. When tested, all of the Patriots footballs—both game balls and back-up balls—registered on the lower-end of the permissible inflation range. Anderson recalls that most of the Patriots footballs measured 12.5 psi, though there may have been one or two that measured 12.6 psi.

A footnote says:


For the reasons described in Section VII.B, we believe it is more probable that Anderson used the Non-Logo Gauge for his pre-game measurements.

That section starts


Having determined that the difference in average pressure drops between the Patriots and Colts footballs was statistically significant...

How do you determine that they were statistically different if you don't even know what gauge was used? It seems like a circular problem in logic.

Moving on to the actual pressure:


Patriots Blakeman Prioleau
1 11.50 11.80
2 10.85 11.20
3 11.15 11.50
4 10.70 11.00
5 11.10 11.45
6 11.60 11.95
7 11.85 12.30
8 11.10 11.55
9 10.95 11.35
10 10.50 10.90
11 10.90 11.35

Colts Blakeman Prioleau
1 12.70 12.35
2 12.75 12.30
3 12.50 12.95
4 12.55 12.15

The Colts balls had a level of variability as well. 0.8 PSI using 1 gauge and 0.2 PSI on another. And that is a sample of 4 of the 12 because they ran out of time to test them. The Patriots balls look very different depending on the gauge. One can't be explained, the others seem reasonable.

The Colts also wrote down 3 measurements of the intercepted ball:


The pressure of the Patriots ball that had been intercepted by the Colts was separately tested three times and the measurements—11.45, 11.35 and 11.75 psi, respectively—were written on athletic tape that had been placed on the ball for identification.

It doesn't seem nearly as conclusive as the report makes it seem.

And yes, the average person isn't going to get it, nor did they get the entire Wells report. All they got was the conclusion. For me personally, it's not as solid as it was when it first came out. I'm more in the I don't know crowd because there are things that don't make sense from both sides.

Wells looks worse too. Before the investigation, they agreed to rules on interviews. Full access to anyone they want once and further follow-ups if new information is discovered. Wells agreed to it, he wasn't forced to agree. They didn't review all the materials before they interviewed McNally, he and his team had the texts and blew it.

Lastly, IF they did nothing, I don't know what else they're supposed to do. They were going to take their medicine until the league said the medicine is arsenic.

This whole thing is a mess and the NFL started in motion a giant cluster from the very beginning and it's going to linger all summer.

[Napoleon]

Excellent post nrc :thumbup:

[WickerBill]

Have to disagree. The NFL investigated as they should have. If the Patriots and Brady do not obstruct, it's over already and the punishment less severe.

[chop456]

I hope Goodell increases every penalty, up to and including making Belichick wear a suit and tie on the sideline. :thumbup:

[Insomniac]

Have to disagree. The NFL investigated as they should have. If the Patriots and Brady do not obstruct, it's over already and the punishment less severe.

They did have to investigate, no question. I don't know how anything changes with more cooperation. They had the texts Brady sent to any Patriots employee they wanted. They already said they didn't believe any of the 3 of them. Was there going to be a text on Brady's phone that changes the entire conclusion of the report? The Patriots were hit for many things according to Vincent. Violating game integrity in the SFC Championship and probably other games, past acts (Spygate) and not fully cooperating.

[Andrew Longman]

Meh. On both the spy gate and the deflation stories it would seem the NFL didn't monitor or control the rule very closely. And it is totally rational to try to work within the rules as they are enforced, not as they are written. You have to assume other teams will do the same.

In baseball it is illegal to steal signs but all teams try so all teams regularly change their signs.

But if you get caught you accept the penalty. The Pats got caught so they should pay. The penalty is likely more severe though because the league is embarrassed.

I've been a Giants can since the Tarkenton days but I will still have the same respect and admiration for Brady and Belechik

Perhaps more to the point, why does the NFL (and even down to the HS and Pop Warner level) allow each team to have there own balls and have separate balls for kicking? Baseball doesn't. -- The home team supplies them and the officials rub them up and inspect them to ensure they meet regulations. Why does NFL? Because each QB and kicker has their preferences! They are allowed to have individual preferences within what appears to be sloppily enforced rules. If the league is not going to properly enforce their rules it is hard to blame the teams for pushing the envelope.

As with Ray Rice the league was most concerned with covering their asses.

[WickerBill]

Was there going to be a text on Brady's phone that changes the entire conclusion of the report?

Well, we don't know. But I do know that if I'm detained for shoplifting and my pockets are empty, it's probably not a great idea to scream at the officer that he isn't allowed to check my pockets without a warrant. Makes you look guilty, whether you are or not.

[Insomniac]

Well, we don't know. But I do know that if I'm detained for shoplifting and my pockets are empty, it's probably not a great idea to scream at the officer that he isn't allowed to check my pockets without a warrant. Makes you look guilty, whether you are or not.

How about the store employee wanting to check your pockets? That's more like who Ted Wells was. :)

[dando]

Kraft opens up the can....

http://mmqb.si.com/2015/05/18/robert-kraft-patriots-owner-nfl-deflategate/

[chop456]

Keep it up. I figure it will take about 27 more days of denials and lawyerspeak to eclipse the 1919 White Sox, then I won't have to hear about that any more. :D

[dando]

kumbaya

http://espn.go.com/boston/nfl/story/_/id/12913741/robert-kraft-says-new-england-patriots-appeal-deflategate-punishment

Word is they kissed. French style. :gomer:

[nrc]

Wonder if the NFL will cut Brady's suspension as a give back.

The next question is how they'll handle the footballs going forward.