Coronavirus Numbers [Archive] - Off Camber Forums

TravelGal

03-11-20, 04:59 PM

Just in case anyone is interested, this site keeps track of cases. USA only 3.1 cases per million people so far - one of the lowest.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

I like this because it has such useful columns and is very easily searchable. I will use it in conjunction with the one I put on my business Facebook page from Johns Hopkins. That one is more graphically based. It has https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html?#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Lux Interior

03-11-20, 08:50 PM

That one is very informative. Thanks for posting.

SteveH

03-11-20, 09:05 PM

https://nerdist.com/article/how-covid-19-spreads-graphs-coronavirus/

TravelGal

03-11-20, 10:25 PM

For a bit of levity, I just read 12 points on Covid-19 from The Onion. Most of them, a little too close to the truth. Particularly the one about the rush to devise a vaccine that would make maximum profits. :rolleyes::rolleyes:

nrc

03-12-20, 12:40 AM

The Cleveland Clinic has developed a test that takes hours to get results instead of days. Hopefully this will help keep speed the process of containment.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/cleveland-clinic-e2-80-99s-new-coronavirus-testing-capabilities-will-deliver-results-within-hours/ar-BB114mEA

Everyone stay safe. I feel like I could have done a couple of hundred surgeries this week with all the hand washing I've been doing.

Lux Interior

03-12-20, 10:04 PM

Big run on food here tonight in northern Ohio. People are worried we are going to be quarantined for two weeks.

It’s a bummer. Even F1 is canceled this weekend. Probably smart though.

TravelGal

03-12-20, 10:51 PM

Big run on food here tonight in northern Ohio. People are worried we are going to be quarantined for two weeks.

It’s a bummer. Even F1 is canceled this weekend. Probably smart though.

I'm beginning to wonder if I'm going to wind up eating through my "earthquake provisions." Sebring is out also. A sad time for the whole world in every aspect.

PS, if anyone is planning any travel at all between now and the beginning of May, check with the cruise line or tour company (if you're using one). Most are "suspending" operations. Disneyland, Universal, WDW, the lot. Notifications have been rolling in all day.

Lux Interior

03-13-20, 10:42 AM

We are just hunkering down. Older kids home from college. I’m thinking we have a month of laying low.

gjc2

03-13-20, 12:50 PM

We are just hunkering down. Older kids home from college. I’m thinking we have a month of laying low.

I hope it’s just a month.

Lux Interior

03-13-20, 05:57 PM

Miami of Ohio and Kent, where my kids go, just said online learning for the rest of the semester. A little premature as far I am concerned.

nrc

03-13-20, 08:22 PM

opinionated ow

03-14-20, 01:38 AM

The small University where I work is sending students home with classes online and work from home for staff starting next week. With local school systems closing nobody wants to be the place that didn't take it seriously enough and infects a bunch of students. Add the fact that many staff are going to start having kids at home and you're kind of stuck going with the flow.

Some talk about the university I work for closing for the rest of the term. Not sure if they're going to do it yet. Does feel pretty overkillish. Hope it's calmed down by August when I'm supposed to holiday in Canada and do some triathlony things because I want to go to NASCAR at Michigan too

Lux Interior

03-14-20, 08:08 AM

A doctor I spoke with said epidemiology experts expect the peak of Covid-19 in Ohio to occur the end of April/ early-mid May based on evidence to date. This is why the schools are going online only for the rest of the semester.

TKGAngel

03-14-20, 09:31 AM

The small University where I work is sending students home with classes online and work from home for staff starting next week. With local school systems closing nobody wants to be the place that didn't take it seriously enough and infects a bunch of students. Add the fact that many staff are going to start having kids at home and you're kind of stuck going with the flow.

NYS hasn't ordered a blanket school closing order, preferring to leave it up to individual districts. They have also rescinded the rule that requires 180 days of in-classroom instruction in order to qualify for state funding this year. That takes a pretty significant obstacle to closing off the table.

In Buffalo area, only the private schools have pulled the pin on long-term closing at this point. Public schools, I think, are still working out a lot of the details, including how to feed kids whose only meals are during the school day and internet access for e-learning.

SteveH

03-15-20, 10:27 AM

Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now (https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca)

Quite detailed. But read it.

Stay healthy

SteveH

03-15-20, 03:02 PM

Cautious optimism (https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1238989169562513409.html)

TravelGal

03-15-20, 03:40 PM

Just in case anyone is interested, this site keeps track of cases. USA only 3.1 cases per million people so far - one of the lowest.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Lux: Thank you again for this. I refer to it every day and refer it to other agents. US now up to 10.2 per million. Still way low in comparison but climbing noticeably.

Edit: SteveH, the theory that it's been here and explains the "rough flu season" makes sense to me. The question is whether it has mutated to become stronger. Originally they said there were two strains though I haven't heard that in a while.

nrc

03-15-20, 11:30 PM

Cautious optimism (https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1238989169562513409.html)

Interesting thoughts but it looks like the thread is broken now. Looks like the author deleted some comments to revise and expand his remarks. At first I thought maybe Twitter was going into CCP mode.

During the normal flu season do they identify the flu strain that is affecting anyone who is seriously ill or dies? Serious question, I don't know. If so it would be interesting to see the graphs for other strains for comparison.

I think it's possible to take this very seriously without panicking. Of course I have the luxury of a job that allows me to work from home in an industry that can largely carry on.

Elmo T

03-16-20, 02:42 PM

It is all corona all the time here lately. Four cases in my county - neighboring county at 30 and climbing. Many attributed to a doc who traveled overseas and then came back and saw many patients. It is all I've done for the last week. At the local level there isn't much we can do except respond to 911 calls and manage the overreaction of some.

PA Gov just announced closure of the state: all schools and daycare closed at least two weeks; non-essential retail suggested closure; state stores (can only buy hard liquor from the state) closed; restaurants ordered to be take out only; etc etc.

NJ putting in curfews.

Lines slowly disappearing at grocery stores who have no toilet paper, cleaners, milk, bread, pasta/sauce; and nearly all fresh meat.

Lines now at gun stores.

Anyways...

Cool map thingy here:

Johns Hopkins COVID19 Map (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html)

SteveH

03-18-20, 12:40 PM

COVID-19 Doubling Time and Projections (https://www.danreichart.com/covid19)

TravelGal

03-18-20, 09:32 PM

Sobering but it fits with my own personal projection of Mid May as the peak. We'll see. Depends on a lot of things.

Lux Interior

03-18-20, 09:54 PM

Hopefully it warms up early and knocks this thing out.

opinionated ow

03-19-20, 08:06 AM

All our face to face activities have been cancelled at the university I teach at. Most courses can go online but we kind of have to sit with the students for everything we do so we're pretty much buggered.

Churches are considered non-essential gatherings so any over 100 people are banned. Most churches in Sydney at least have cancelled services-including the Anglican Cathedral! Nearly all sport is cancelled-rugby league and aussie rules are going on in front of nobody. It's all very, very surreal.

SteveH

03-19-20, 09:51 AM

How long will Americans be fighting the coronavirus? (https://apnews.com/67ac94d1cf08a84ff7c6bbeec2b167fa)

Applicable to our friends in Canada, Australia and New Zeeland, too. Hope I didn't leave anyone out.

Most scientists believe the fight against COVID-19 won’t be over until there’s an effective vaccine. But Fauci and other experts say it will be more than a year before a vaccine can be ready for widespread use.

“The best-case scenario is that we have vaccine in 12 or 18 months and then our lives go back to normal,” Jit said. “The worst-case scenario it takes a long time for a vaccine to be developed, and the world is really changed and our lives aren’t the same again.”

nrc

03-20-20, 02:10 AM

How long will Americans be fighting the coronavirus? (https://apnews.com/67ac94d1cf08a84ff7c6bbeec2b167fa)

Applicable to our friends in Canada, Australia and New Zeeland, too. Hope I didn't leave anyone out.

I sure hope that's not true. I don't think they'll wait for a vaccine for things to at least start to return to normal if the transmission slows in the summer and some of the promising treatments that are being tested bring mortality in line with other flus.

In that case things won't get entirely back to normal but at least life can resume for most people even if special measures are still necessary for at-risk groups.

Fingers crossed.

SteveH

03-20-20, 12:32 PM

hope he is correct
https://www.ftportfolios.com/Blogs/EconBlog/2020/3/17/the-coronavirus-contraction

Lux Interior

03-21-20, 01:15 AM

https://racer.com/2020/03/20/core-autosport-parent-company-transitions-to-face-mask-manufacturing/

:thumbup:

devilmaster

03-21-20, 01:36 AM

https://www.ted.com/talks/larry_brilliant_my_wish_help_me_stop_pandemics?lan guage=en

2006 Ted Talk.

https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus-interview-larry-brilliant-smallpox-epidemiologist/?utm_source=pocket-newtab

opinionated ow

03-21-20, 10:16 AM

The latest out here is that they've started treating patients with anti-malaria and anti-HIV drugs which appears to be helping. Not a cure by far and not going to stop the spread but if it makes recovery easier/quicker that's great news and will help immensely in dealing with the sheer volume of cases expected

SteveH

03-21-20, 10:50 AM

Coronavirus predictions (https://coronavirus.ceapa.cool/?id=4626)

TravelGal

03-21-20, 12:55 PM

Coronavirus predictions (https://coronavirus.ceapa.cool/?id=4626)

At least the US doesn't have the highest growth rate. That's something, I suppose.

In other news, cruise lines are beginning to rethink their May cruises and extending their Future Cruise Credit offers through May 31.

Lux Interior

03-21-20, 05:20 PM

I think we have at least two months of this. The virus will (hopefully) die out when it warms up here. Fingers crossed.

Elmo T

03-21-20, 05:21 PM

Five days later from my last post and we've gone from 4 to 28 - which includes several children and a police officer. 77 cases in neighboring county. Over 300 in PA with 2 deaths. Numbers aren't going to be so important or newsworthy soon.

Hospitals - not yet innundated, have put out requests for protective equipment. Requests to the general public.

Term I heard that I like is PTSD: PRE Traumatic Stress Disorder. We know what is coming and we are all stressed out.

gjc2

03-21-20, 06:34 PM

we are all stressed out.

We sure are.

This will pass, and we'll all be stronger for it.

I'm saying that to convince myself as much as anyone else.

Be safe everyone.

03-21-20, 06:56 PM

Hospitals - not yet innundated, have put out requests for protective equipment. Requests to the general public.

Wait. So hospitals are asking folks to dig through their garages for PPE?
What are they asking for?

WickerBill

03-21-20, 09:50 PM

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

Thoughts?

nrc

03-22-20, 12:01 AM

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

Thoughts?

Whatever he said, you're not allowed to say.

ERROR
410
This post is under investigation or was found in violation of the Medium Rules.

SteveH

03-22-20, 09:43 AM

It was thought provoking. Mostly promoting by the use of several sources that possibly the pandemic isn’t nearly as bad as we fear.

But I’m not taking any chances. I’ll be in my basement, if needed.

devilmaster

03-22-20, 12:51 PM

I think what most people need to be reminded of from the powers that be is why we're social distancing/isolating.

Novel in novel coronavirus means that its new. No human has ever had it before and our bodies as a collective whole have no defense against it.

The stark reality is that, odds are, you are going to get it. Sometime in the next year you are going to get this virus.

All we are trying to do is buy time. Time to slow it down so we don't swamp our medical system - because in a best case scenario this virus only might be a 1% mortality, but if Italy and Iran are any indication, an overloaded system with an older population means the mortality rate could actually be closer to 10%.

We are also trying to buy time to find a vaccine. Best estimates are 12-18 months, but there are many scientists working on it and it may be sooner because of the sheer force of talent and the ability nowadays for instant communication.

And we are trying to buy time to get to a war footing. I suspect that our current situation is no different than the months shortly after Dec 7th. The stories of major plants converting to making PPE for hospitals, and hand sanitizers, all the way down to the calls for people with 3d printers to make mask parts with open source designs. All that is missing is some patriotic guy singing 'Remember! Pearl Harbor!"

But the reality is this virus will only be defeated when 75%+ of the population of the world has either had it and survived, or had the vaccine.

But what happens in the next few months when a lot of people will be going stir crazy and weather warms up? And they want to go out because they have been cooped up for months? You will get a 2nd and 3rd spike in cases.

And also, warm weather probably won't 'kill' the virus. According to the John Hopkins university map (https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6) many warm climate countries have cases, and fatalities.

These are the things that politicians need to keep saying. Explain it out like everyone is in kindergarten. Come down hard on anyone who hoards, or tries profiteering, or tries to sell snake oil.

As for the rest of us, be smart, be safe. Use common sense. Help each other out. We will get through it.

devilmaster

03-22-20, 01:54 PM

http://blog.deonandan.com/wordpress/2020/03/covid19-whats-the-end-game.html?fbclid=IwAR3U7jcgpa-qEkmN6DgovRI5_J81IRuZMTFK-JoBweA0GSDa9JzVCaB9Mbo

Canadian epidemiologist. (and I found this article after I wrote that post above ^) But everything above was gleaned off of many interviews and articles with the experts.

SteveH

03-22-20, 03:45 PM

But what happens in the next few months when a lot of people will be going stir crazy and weather warms up? And they want to go out because they have been cooped up for months? You will get a 2nd and 3rd spike in cases.

Flattening the spike also means a longer duration event. It is absolutely necessary to avoid crashing our medical system, which may occur regardless. The social ramifications of this will be quite interesting to watch. Some will not handle this at all. I'll wash the car a couple of times a week (but never drive it anywhere). Mow the yard every other day whether it needs it or not. Power wash everything, once/month. I'm ready. :thumbup:

TravelGal

03-22-20, 07:36 PM

The stark reality is that, odds are, you are going to get it. Sometime in the next year you are going to get this virus.

All we are trying to do is buy time. Time to slow it down so we don't swamp our medical system. We are also trying to buy time to find a vaccine. And we are trying to buy time to get to a war footing.

But the reality is this virus will only be defeated when 75%+ of the population of the world has either had it and survived, or had the vaccine.

But what happens in the next few months when a lot of people will be going stir crazy and weather warms up? And they want to go out because they have been cooped up for months? You will get a 2nd and 3rd spike in cases.

As for the rest of us, be smart, be safe. Use common sense. Help each other out. We will get through it.

DM, that's exactly what I just telling a friend. His father passed away of natural causes last week and my friend is "stuck" in his apartment near Washington, DC. I told him he's going to be there a long time because of the subsequent spikes in cases. Mostly likely the next one will be two weeks after the Spring Break kids scatter across the US from those beaches in Florida. :irked:

datachicane

03-22-20, 11:17 PM

At least the US doesn't have the highest growth rate. That's something, I suppose.

I'd hold off on the champagne. Inadequate testing means inadequate data, so we don't have the foggiest idea what our actual infection rate is.

If I'm feeling particularly cynical, I'd say the shortage of test kits is a strategic choice intended to delay negative impacts on the economy.

Elmo T

03-22-20, 11:48 PM

Wait. So hospitals are asking folks to dig through their garages for PPE?
What are they asking for?

Count is at 41 now. Seems pointless to even track now.

And yes they are asking for PPE.

https://www.facebook.com/194322180608345/posts/3828061863901007/?d=n

nrc

03-23-20, 01:24 AM

DM, that's exactly what I just telling a friend. His father passed away of natural causes last week and my friend is "stuck" in his apartment near Washington, DC. I told him he's going to be there a long time because of the subsequent spikes in cases. Mostly likely the next one will be two weeks after the Spring Break kids scatter across the US from those beaches in Florida. :irked:

Which is ironic given the amount of scolding I've seen for boomers not taking it seriously.

Ohio is under a stay-at-home order starting tomorrow night.

We had scheduled a remodel of our master bath next week which I assume will now be postponed. Fortunately we already picked up paint to paint the bedroom which will keep us entertained for a little while.

Elmo T

03-23-20, 08:49 AM

Had to pick up my daughter's stuff from UT in Knoxville this weekend. Kudos to UTK for being all over this and writing the play book as they go - creating a system to get the kids out and home safely.

TN looked slightly slower for a Sunday.

VA was business as usual with some (not all) restaurants closed or takeout only.

Got back into PA around 630PM and it was dead. Turnpike was mostly empty. ***** is getting real here and people are finally taking heed.

TravelGal

03-23-20, 12:22 PM

***** is getting real here and people are finally taking heed.

LA City/County (not the same but it's hard to keep restrictions straight) slowly contracted movement and has been stay at home for about a week already. Until April 19. Other states are late to the game or not in it at all yet. That's why DM was so right about the spikes. At this point, all we can do is hope to keep them manageable.

In other (funny, ironic) news, airlines are now thrilled that the 737's are grounded. Talk about reversal of fortune.

devilmaster

03-23-20, 12:28 PM

In other (funny, ironic) news, airlines are now thrilled that the 737's are grounded. Talk about reversal of fortune.

the Maxes? or more of them? just curious if there was aviation news i've missed

TravelGal

03-23-20, 04:04 PM

the Maxes? or more of them? just curious if there was aviation news i've missed

A piece from the Cranky Flier, Brett Snyder. A small snippet.

"All of the big guys in the US save Delta have MAXs on order and would most assuredly be thrilled to not have to take them right now. Of course, this isn’t limited to the MAX in terms of airline desire. The last thing an airline wants is to take delivery of ANY new airplane right now. For the MAX, that’s easy. For others, not so much.

In a week when American announced it would ground more than 130 of its widebody airplanes, it actually took delivery of one, a 787, from Boeing. The airline can’t just walk away because times are tough."

Then he goes into bailout, which gets into politics so I'll just comment that he has a great newsletter. If you want to read it subscribe at https://crankyflier.com/

SteveH

03-23-20, 06:30 PM

United is parking at least 225 in AZ. I assume at the Pinal Airpark. I also assume the airlines expect them to be there for a while.

Elmo T

03-23-20, 10:10 PM

County cases up to 63 by this PM. My EMA updates no longer give totals directly. The trend has been set. Planning activities underway for potentials I'd never thought I'd hear, let alone seem like a reality.

Gov. Wolf ordered shelter in place for 6 PA counties (Essentially Philly and Pittsburgh) today:

Individuals may leave their residence only to perform any of the following allowable individual activities and allowable essential travel:

Tasks essential to maintain health and safety, or the health and safety of their family or household members (including pets), such as obtaining medicine or medical supplies, visiting a health care professional, or obtaining supplies they need to work from home
Getting necessary services or supplies for themselves, for their family or household members, or as part of volunteer efforts, or to deliver those services or supplies to others to maintain the safety, sanitation, and essential operation of residences
Engaging in outdoor activity, such as walking, hiking or running if they maintain social distancing
To perform work providing essential products and services at a life-sustaining business
To care for a family member or pet in another household
Any travel related to the provision of or access to the above-mentioned individual activities or life-sustaining business activities
Travel to care for elderly, minors, dependents, persons with disabilities, or other vulnerable persons
Travel to or from educational institutions for purposes of receiving materials for distance learning, for receiving meals, and any other related services
Travel to return to a place of residence from an outside jurisdiction
Travel required by law enforcement or court order.
Travel required for non-residents to return to their place of residence outside the commonwealth

nrc

03-24-20, 12:43 AM

Another chart page.

https://coronavirusgraphs.com/

TravelGal

03-24-20, 12:22 PM

United is parking at least 225 in AZ. I assume at the Pinal Airpark. I also assume the airlines expect them to be there for a while.

I've read that United specifically is using Pinal Airpark. Others also but United seems to have first dibs. WSJ and Bloomberg both reporting that major airlines are considering a nearly complete shutdown. If you need to get somewhere by air, get there *now* In other news, Carey Limo has established city to city rates within each region of the country. Cost effective for more than one but expensive if you're by yourself. Vehicles are thoroughly cleaned between trips.

SteveH

03-24-20, 06:21 PM

Here’s a WSJ article on a possible shutdown of airlines
https://apple.news/A8aDFKmgbTsi9XeFEDHZPCw

Easy

03-27-20, 02:36 PM

Anyone familiar with the lily pads covering a pond exercise?

US is already the highest number of confirmed and we will be the hardest hit by magnitudes. Stay safe.

Elmo T

03-27-20, 02:44 PM

Anyone familiar with the lily pads covering a pond exercise?

In my County, we've gone from 63 on Monday to 144 as of last night.

Hospitalizations have been low so far. This has been the only bright spot here.

The scarier part if that we aren't even close to the peak.

Penn Medicine Coronavirus Model Warns Of Tsunami To Hit Philadelphia In May (https://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2020/03/26/coronavirus-latest-penn-medicine-model-warns-of-coronavirus-tsunami-to-hit-philadelphia-in-may/)

States putting out orders for reefer trailers. Plans for mass feeding of the community. Mass fatality plans being firmed up.

devilmaster

03-27-20, 05:18 PM

The scarier part if that we aren't even close to the peak.

States putting out orders for reefer trailers. Plans for mass feeding of the community. Mass fatality plans being firmed up.

I was just following a news report of a Michigan hospital system, that is planning who gets resources if there are not enough to go around. Everyone is bashing them, but this is reality folks. The people in power have plans. Plans that no one wants to talk about, and no one hopes to have to go to. But that's reality that most of us doing our 9-5 jobs ever have to worry about.

Its hard to watch people who think they know better still walk around, do parties and such.

I read a Detroit story of a 42 year old mom who died. There is also a news report today that a 17 year old died in California from covid.

No one is truly safe. Its not just an 'old person' disease, its just they are more susceptible.

Please take it seriously everyone.

SteveH

03-27-20, 07:01 PM

I was just following a news report of a Michigan hospital system, that is planning who gets resources if there are not enough to go around. Everyone is bashing them, but this is reality folks. The people in power have plans. Plans that no one wants to talk about, and no one hopes to have to go to. But that's reality that most of us doing our 9-5 jobs ever have to worry about.

I saw an article a few days ago that in Italy there is such a shortage of ventilators that no one over 60 gets one. That age was higher, but they had to reduce it as the demand has gotten greater. I can't imagine those decision having to be made in North America, but here we are.

The forecast is for storms tomorrow. I'm planning on going to the grocery then to hopefully avoid crowds.

Lux Interior

03-28-20, 07:04 AM

The US figures would look drastically different without New York State. New York represents 5.4% of the country's population and 44.4% of the diagnosed cases. Remove that and the US has an infection rate similar to that of South Korea. In fact New York State has an infection rate of 2,400 per million which dwarfs that of Italy (1,400 per million).

Lux Interior

03-28-20, 02:23 PM

To add to the above:

More useful data -- via Brian Sullivan

With the significant ramp in US testing (526,000 tests were run this past week), it is also reasonable to start comparing relative per capita case rates across countries. Again, the US is doing well relative to Western Europe. Except for the UK, the US has fewer reported cases per capita than every Western European country. Some will argue that our per capita test rate is too low to make such a comparison legitimate. Since the number of per capita tests run in the US is now comparable or better to every European country other than Italy’s and Germany’s, that argument is losing weight. Tracking case rates over the next few weeks will tell us a lot.

Finally, it is interesting to note that, outside of New York, the percentage of positive tests relative to total tests run is only 12%. This is comparable to the level the CDC reports for flu tests. The outlier, of course, is New York. Over 30% of all tests report a positive result. This test positive rate is relevant because epidemiologists use it in their models to project the true incidence of an infectious disease in a population. With the convergence of test positive rates for Wuhan virus and influenza in most parts of the country, better projections of total infection rates should follow.

nrc

03-29-20, 12:20 AM

It's funny to see how conveniently the press forgets about the difference between raw numbers and per capita numbers when it suits them.

It's also funny to see them treating New York like they're some kind of role model in this crisis when they're very much in a disaster of their own making. Why does New York have have ten times the cases of California?

https://www.sfchronicle.com/health/article/NY-has-10-times-the-coronavirus-cases-CA-has-Why-15154692.php

https://s.hdnux.com/photos/01/11/21/71/19209842/17/1280x0.jpg

New York City had over 5000 cases before New York State issued a stay-at-home order.

TravelGal

03-29-20, 04:01 PM

It's funny to see how conveniently the press forgets about the difference between raw numbers and per capita numbers when it suits them.

It's also funny to see them treating New York like they're some kind of role model in this crisis when they're very much in a disaster of their own making. Why does New York have have ten times the cases of California?

Not disagreeing with your points but one answer to your question is that public transportation is virtually unheard of here.

cameraman

03-29-20, 07:23 PM

yeah the New York subway is not great when you have an airborne virus

nrc

03-30-20, 12:00 AM

Not disagreeing with your points but one answer to your question is that public transportation is virtually unheard of here.

Absolutely. The subway is the perfect transmission vector for this kind of pandemic.

Funny that you would say that about public transportation out there. Some of my friends always swore BART was the model public transportation system. I believed it until I used it.

Which reminds me. Remember a while back when the big thinkers all swore that we were all going to dump our cars in favor of transportation as a service. :rolleyes:

TravelGal

03-30-20, 12:45 AM

Funny that you would say that about public transportation out there. Some of my friends always swore BART was the model public transportation system. I believed it until I used it.

Which reminds me. Remember a while back when the big thinkers all swore that we were all going to dump our cars in favor of transportation as a service. :rolleyes:

I should have said, "out here in Southern California" because NorCal had it bad early on. Probably partly because of BART. I agree with you about BART. I didn't find it particularly likeable the few times I used it.

They are still trying to get everyone into buses here in LA. Conversely, they are adding many bike lanes, which only serves to jam up the existing vehicle traffic into fewer lanes. I'll see your :rolleyes: and raise you two. :rolleyes::rolleyes:

devilmaster

04-01-20, 01:56 PM

Another chart page.

https://coronavirusgraphs.com/

This is such a fascinating website. And very sobering. :(

nrc

04-01-20, 06:30 PM

This is the puzzle. It's easy to look at the China numbers compared to the West and figure that they must be lying. But what about South Korea? What about Japan?

1041

Note that this is on log scale so these differences are huge. All the rabble rousing about the United States response vs. this country or that is just noise. There's a vast difference between every major Western country and these Eastern countries.

Obviously China has free rein to adopt social distancing regimen much more severe than would be accepted in other countries. But even the difference between other Eastern countries and Western countries is stark

If the difference turns out to be as simple as widespread acceptance in the East of masks as a counter measure while the WHO and CDC have actively discouraged it, then our public health leaders have really screwed up.

https://coronavirusgraphs.com/?c=da100&y=log&t=line&f=0&ct=&co=1,2,3,47,53,89,115,116,118,125,215,222

gjc2

04-01-20, 06:30 PM

The fact that apparently many more people have been tested in New York taints the numbers in so far as they compare to other areas.
How many people have contracted Covid-19, were sick for ten days got better and were never counted?
This is scary for me; I live in the suburbs of New York City, I’m 69 and have mild of asthma.

gjc2

04-01-20, 06:32 PM

indyfan31

04-01-20, 10:09 PM

I’m skeptical of the Chinese numbers
Skeptical? I'm calling crap. :saywhat:

nrc

04-01-20, 11:48 PM

I’m skeptical of the Chinese numbers

Oh, me too. None of their curves are consistent or like anyone else's. It's possible that they've brought new cases under control but I think if so they probably did it by quarantining a lot of people and leaving them to fend for themselves or die. Press has been shut out to hide the cleanup.

But the South Korean and Japanese numbers show suggest that something else is at play in that region even if the Chinese numbers are complete fiction.

SteveH

04-01-20, 11:48 PM

devilmaster

04-02-20, 12:06 AM

This is the puzzle. It's easy to look at the China numbers compared to the West and figure that they must be lying. But what about South Korea? What about Japan?

1041

If all the data is correct in the spreadsheet on that page.... Japan is skewed because as of the 30th they have only tested 0.02% of their population. So I would take their data on this graph with a huge grain of salt.

South Korea is interesting in its data points because it has tested 0.8% of the pop. Which, sadly, is top 10 in the world. Is their population more in tune to listen to and follow its government decrees because they are always on a war footing in their country? But since they are the outlier, I would leave them, for now, as an outlier.

But thinking more into it, Asians have a proclivity to wear masks outdoors, and there is some belief now that even simple cloth masks may help slow the transmission of disease of people who have it yet show no signs of symptoms. Again, more data is needed.

Disregarding Japan and China and any other country that would be expected to lie... everyone else follows the same path, and therefore is probably the norm.

The sad reality for the next month is that no country in the world has tested more than 5% of its population. When quick accurate testing begins will we be able to make more sense with better data. The amount of data that they have now only allows for trends and guessing.

But the trend is, after 30 days of knowing you have 100 people with it, somewhere between 60 to 100 people per 100,000 will have known to have had it(of those tested). With the countries who completely failed to do anything closer to 200 people per 100,000. And after 30 days it continues to trend -up-. So if 100 is the high trend mark, within 30 days, 0.1% of the population will have had it. And that's only the ones they know about, as testing is still under 1% of pop for most of the entire world.

The sooner quick, accurate testing for the disease becomes available, the true scope will come into view.

All I know is this, as I write this post, my sister called from home and said her son woke up this morning to a headache and chills, but didn't tell anyone till late tonight. He has a 102.5 fever. And for them, tonight, a very sleepless night ahead as they monitor him.

* - of course, all the above is just me trying to make sense of the avail data. I may very well be way off.

TravelGal

04-02-20, 01:22 AM

The sooner quick, accurate testing for the disease becomes available, the true scope will come into view.

All I know is this, as I write this post, my sister called from home and said her son woke up this morning to a headache and chills, but didn't tell anyone till late tonight. He has a 102.5 fever. And for them, tonight, a very sleepless night ahead as they monitor him.

* - of course, all the above is just me trying to make sense of the avail data. I may very well be way off.

Agree with your post. Everything now is based on trends from other illnesses, completely unlike Covid-19, and .xxx of a percent of testing. Only wide-scale testing can give us enough relevant data. BTW, from a very sensible video I watched--the main reason to wear a nonN95 mask is to prevent you from touching your face. It's an unconsciousness habit with almost everyone but having the mask trains you to stop it.

I'm going to hope your nephew has just the "regular" flu. Fever and chills together is not particularly indicative of Covid-19, which has fever 87.9%, chills 11.4%. I hope I'm right although that's dangerous too. I'll check back and look for another post from you in the morning.

PS, from the same doctor in the video referenced above. The time to go to the hospital is if you are short of breath.

rabbit

04-02-20, 01:39 AM

Found out this afternoon that my parents (79 and 78) are among the "numbers." Still processing it.... And praying for full recovery.

WickerBill

04-02-20, 08:02 AM

Once these tests are analyzed the US numbers will explode

Documents show backlog of 160,000 coronavirus tests at just one lab company (https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/politics/testing-backlog-coronavirus-quest-invs/index.html)

And therein lies the problem. The numbers will explode, and for the sake of eyeballs and pageviews, it will be reported as a "huge surge in cases", which is at best old news, and at worst, plain false. It's a huge surge in results, some of them a week old, and no news outlet is, as far as I'm aware, reporting cases from when they were taken. See, this would change yesterday's numbers, and that doesn't make today's news quite as "exciting".

Sorry.... so very cynical.

rabbit! Best wishes to you and your parents. Full recovery is very possible and very likely. :thumbup:

gjc2

04-02-20, 09:37 AM

Found out this afternoon that my parents (79 and 78) are among the "numbers." Still processing it.... And praying for full recovery.

Good luck, be strong.

rabbit

04-02-20, 11:15 AM

rabbit! Best wishes to you and your parents. Full recovery is very possible and very likely. :thumbup:
Thanks, WB. I'm choosing to focus on the recovery rate. Hardest part is knowing that I can't visit them at all during this time. They're both in full quarantine for the next two weeks. I'm two and half hours away. But I have some wonderful siblings who are doing what they can to help.

nrc

04-02-20, 11:25 AM

If all the data is correct in the spreadsheet on that page.... Japan is skewed because as of the 30th they have only tested 0.02% of their population. So I would take their data on this graph with a huge grain of salt.

Good point. But if that low testing rate is masking a higher infection rate that will eventually catch up with them as serious cases and deaths explode. Unless there's something else at play. So far there's no sign of that in their death rate.

South Korea is interesting in its data points because it has tested 0.8% of the pop. Which, sadly, is top 10 in the world. Is their population more in tune to listen to and follow its government decrees because they are always on a war footing in their country? But since they are the outlier, I would leave them, for now, as an outlier.

But thinking more into it, Asians have a proclivity to wear masks outdoors, and there is some belief now that even simple cloth masks may help slow the transmission of disease of people who have it yet show no signs of symptoms. Again, more data is needed.

I tried finding other Asian countries with useful data but most of them are still too soon since their 100th case to say for sure which trajectory they're on. Taiwan, for example, appears to be in that same group as South Korea and Japan, but they're only 13 days out from their 100th case. But even that's interesting because they were among the first to warn about it - something the WHO ignored thanks to their political entanglements with China.

The sad reality for the next month is that no country in the world has tested more than 5% of its population. When quick accurate testing begins will we be able to make more sense with better data. The amount of data that they have now only allows for trends and guessing.

Absolutely. Maybe we should change this to the corona virus numbers and guessing thread.

Wishing your nephew a speedy recovery with nothing but an ordinary flu bug. Right now I think we're all hyper-vigilant to symptoms but trying really hard not to over-react. Like, was that a cough? Did I just cough? When was the last time I coughed. Do I have a cough? No, I think I was just clearing my throat. Do I take my temperature again just in case?

nrc

04-02-20, 12:31 PM

Thanks, WB. I'm choosing to focus on the recovery rate. Hardest part is knowing that I can't visit them at all during this time. They're both in full quarantine for the next two weeks. I'm two and half hours away. But I have some wonderful siblings who are doing what they can to help.

Wishing the best for you and your parents, rabbit. The enforced distance makes this so much harder.

Elmo T

04-02-20, 12:42 PM

Found out this afternoon that my parents (79 and 78) are among the "numbers." Still processing it.... And praying for full recovery.

So sorry. :(

We've reached the point that we knew was coming - the numbers are becoming names for us all. My son's in-laws are either ill or quarantined. I know a firefighter from another area who is on a vent.

Aside from age, my friends in the hospitals are saying the largest risk factors by far are diabetes and BMI.

Stay well folks.

I've adopted this slightly pessimistic theory on the 14 day quarantine. Each time I go to grocery store or stop for work, my 14 day clock resets. I've been good for 3 weeks, but I went to resupply - back to zero now.

rabbit

04-04-20, 07:39 PM

Thanks for the kind words, everyone. An update:

It's been a long, hard fight for both Mom and Dad. What I can share is that Dad's fever was the lowest today it has been since this started. And Mom "might" get to go home tomorrow, Monday at the latest. They are both extremely exhausted and need rest and prayer for strength.

Thank you all again. And please stay home. Let's all take care of each other.

Kiwifan

04-04-20, 11:55 PM

Good to hear your folks are on the road to recovery rabbit. I'm picking they will feel drained for some time going by the reports of people who have had it here. Even fit healthy people say it whacked them pretty hard.

We are lucky having such a small population that isolation seems to be working although there are still idiots who want to carry on as normal.

I have been watching a few WW2 documentaries and it was amazing to see how many people rallied around for the war effort. This is a war with an unseen enemy but the same principles apply. This time it's "STAY AT HOME!"

Good luck mate.

nrc

04-05-20, 12:00 AM

Fantastic news, rabbit. Praying they can be home soon.

Ohio is hoping to see a peak in new cases by May 1st. No idea how that can change anything that we're doing but hopefully it frees up resources for improved testing, treatment, and prevention.

nrc

04-05-20, 01:40 AM

Bill Gates will fund factories for the top seven most promising vaccines before they have been tested to get a head start on production.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/bill-gates-factories-7-different-vaccines-to-fight-coronavirus-2020-4

Gates said he was picking the top seven vaccine candidates and building manufacturing capacity for them. “Even though we’ll end up picking at most two of them, we’re going to fund factories for all seven, just so that we don’t waste time in serially saying, ‘OK, which vaccine works?’ and then building the factory,” he said.

Gates said that simultaneously testing and building manufacturing capacity is essential to the quick development of a vaccine, which Gates thinks could take about 18 months.

TravelGal

04-05-20, 01:53 AM

nrc

04-05-20, 02:00 AM

I was out mowing for the first time this spring today and I wore a mask that I had left over from some drywall work. I'm sure some neighbors thought I was crazy since you're not going to catch it just riding the mower around your yard. But I figure that in a pandemic that kills with respiratory failure, I'm better off not loading up my lungs with a bunch of leaf mold, pollen, and dust.

Grrl is making homemade masks for our trips out from now on. I really recommend that everyone do the same.

https://masks4all.co/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HhNo_IOPOtU

TravelGal

04-05-20, 12:23 PM

Good choice, boss. :thumbup: The CDC is encouraging everyone to wear a mask whenever they leave their house. In Los Angeles, masks for anyone leaving their house has been required for several days now even if you're driving in your own car.

Many of you travel a lot. I had a tip last night from my friend, the business development manager for Royal Caribbean. He said to dig out those airline kits and use the eye shield. High quality and you can tell which is inside and which is outside. Remember to take precautions not to put the "outside" toward your face if you reuse the mask within 72 hours.

devilmaster

04-05-20, 01:17 PM

Thanks, rabbit, for posting. I've been checking back 3 times a day to get news. It sounds excellent but please follow up with how they are progressing. Now if devilmaster would just let us know about his nephew.

Sorry, I've been kinda digital distancing. When I get to the point that I start saying being willfully ignorant should be a capital crime, I need to step away. Although I still agree with that sentiment. The story of the train engineer trying to run it off track into the USNS Mercy cause he has some government takeover conspiracy theory kinda makes my point.

He's been getting better... still not sure if he has it or just a flu. just waiting now to see if the rest of the family gets it.

Rabb, hoping for a full recovery. :thumbup:

SteveH

04-05-20, 01:56 PM

Bob Varsha just posted this on his GoFundMe page

Well, that ended poorly. After completing my final, and toughest, round of chemo weeks ago, the side effects never seemed to go away. Then one day my temperature spiked, so my oncologist leapt into action and got me a Coronavirus test. On Friday the result was “positive.” So here we are, enjoying another 14-day quarantine. I can’t say enough good things about my docs, Dr. Vasily Assikis here in Atlanta and Dr. Daniel George at Duke, and their staffs. They have been totally supportive. As soon as I can get the all-clear we’ll do blood and MRI work, see where are. Thanks to all! I still hope to speak to you from a track later this year.

:(

cameraman

04-05-20, 09:25 PM

nrc

04-06-20, 02:12 AM

This web page has a good method of tracking virus numbers. It is the ratio between new cases in the past 7 days vs total cases. This is the definition of exponential growth. The straight line is bad and anything drooping to the right means the country is getting a bit of control. Ignore China which has stopped reporting real numbers.

You can also switch to the same ratio for deaths. There's also a linear version but that really doesn't show things as cleanly.

Nice thing about this one is it covers all the nations reporting numbers. You can just turn them on or off as you desire.

Nations "started" when they reached 100 cases.

This is updated daily off of the WHO data.

Covid Trends (https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/)

Your link is broken because the URL and text are swapped. Fixed in the quote above.

Here's another interesting chart page. Projections for peak new cases and deaths. Pretty grim but currently not as grim as earlier projections. Fingers crossed that we can continue shift those numbers in a positive direction.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

TravelGal

04-06-20, 02:46 PM

Your link is broken because the URL and text are swapped. Fixed in the quote above.

Here's another interesting chart page. Projections for peak new cases and deaths. Pretty grim but currently not as grim as earlier projections. Fingers crossed that we can continue shift those numbers in a positive direction.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

I'll add those to my bookmarks. To cameraman's point, I posted this on my business page on Saturday. Hopeful news from Italy. "April 4, 2020. 4805 new cases and 681 new deaths in Italy. The number of patients hospitalized in intensive care has declined for the first time since the beginning of the epidemic in Italy. The target of bringing down the reproductive number (R0) to 1 has been reached. Now the goal is to bring it below 1. Earlier in the epidemic, it was as high as 3. This value represents the average number of people to which a single infected person will transmit the virus. An epidemic with a reproductive number below 1 will gradually disappear
An estimated 30,000 lives have been saved as an effect of the lockdown measures, according to Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS) [source] [source]" from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?#countries

Elmo T

04-06-20, 05:52 PM

So we crossed 700 postive tests today - with a stated point that we probably have 3 times that.

Deaths have remained low (19 as of 12PM today) and nearly all have been elderly with pre-existing conditions. That said, we lost our 1st firefighter in the County to COVID19 over the weekend.

On a whim, I did tune into the online fire radio scanner thingy for FDNY last night. In the 10 minutes I was listening, I heard four 10-37 Code 1 called on the radio which is deceased civilian on a medical.