View Full Version : The post COVID world
A separate thread to talk about the fallout from all of this and how things may change.
It's really odd but it looks like I've already worked my last day at the office with my own desk. When I go back it will probably be to clean out all the paper and junk I've accumulated that I haven't needed in years. Hopefully we'll end up with some cool workshop spaces where we can have monthly (or so) face to face events once we're on the other side of this.
Interesting article on this from Quillette about how this crisis may reverse the trend toward the larger, more dense urban centers.
https://quillette.com/2020/05/14/towards-a-better-urbanism/
34 percent of Americans could work from home according to one study. This could have quite an impact on commercial real estate in downtown areas. Also note that this is going to completely disrupt mass transit and the whole pipe dream of nobody owning cars. Although it will probably reduce the number of cars. Fewer cars, more toys. I wonder if this could revive sports cars as people no longer need two daily commuter/kid haulers.
There's a sense that while people are going to still want areas dense enough to have amenities, maybe having 100 different cuisines within walking distance isn't worth living in a plague center. It's funny that none of the big thinkers who prognosticate on these topics ever considered such a scenario. In our hubris we've assumed that we were no longer vulnerable like our ancestors who were too dumb not to drink their own sewage. Yeah, get on the packed subway and ride to your think tank, big brain.
Funny how much this looks like the pandemics of old. The technological monster, once again brought down by nature's tiniest adversary.
From the article above:
Well over a century ago, HG Wells predicted this transformation of the urban core from the center of city life to what he referred to as “places of concourse and rendezvous.” City centers, he wrote, would contain a relatively small percentage of the overall population, and would be dominated by the affluent and childless. They would, he waggishly predicted, become places of “luxurious extinction.”
So what’s the future of Manhattan? I have a client in midtown Manhattan. Had a conference call with two of them today. From their residences in New Jersey. They think they will be out of their office until the end of June. If not longer. Neither has a residence (apartment) that is conducive towards working from home. I suspect that issue is being played out all over NYC because who can afford a larger place? That’s a huge issue if working from home becomes widely accepted/promoted there. However as much as the present situation isn’t preferable they don’t want to go back to their office because of the commute, either packed in a subway or on a bus. Rock and a hard place defined.
BTW, I’ve worked out of my house for 25 years. After the first 5 we bought a larger house with enough space to devote to an office.
TKGAngel
05-16-20, 05:56 PM
My part of New York State hasn't gotten the approval to start opening up yet, (still only hitting 5 of 7 criteria), but my company sent out the "rules for when we're back in the office" memo yesterday. It covered mask use, one way office traffic, meeting room capacity, kitchen status, cleaning, etc. We'll see how it goes when we're actually in the building. If I had to estimate, I would guess that we'll not be back until mid-June or later.
The entertainment industry is going to go through a lot of changes. Trolls World Tour showed that releasing.a movie to streaming or VOD worked well. More movies may get released that way. Networks are delaying their new shows until January 2021 over concerns about when they can start filming again. The Fall 2020 TV season is going to be a lot of reality, things that were already in the can and spoiling on the shelf or shows purchased from Canada/UK/streaming outlets.
I’m going to stick this here. Based on what went wrong, where do we go from here. Rational, fact based and for the most part apolitical. Well worth the 46 minutes.
GPHSmOhqdHA
indyfan31
05-18-20, 10:15 AM
I work in a 12 story building, I went "in" last week to pick up a few more things to continue working from home. They've posted a set of rules that includes compulsory wearing of masks, washing of hands, etc. The last rule states "2 people max per elevator". There are 6 elevators and almost 900 people in the building.
I’m going to stick this here. Based on what went wrong, where do we go from here. Rational, fact based and for the most part apolitical. Well worth the 46 minutes.
GPHSmOhqdHA
Interesting that he sort of admits to being wrong on the mask thing. I don't accept "we can't trust people to do the right thing" as an excuse for misleading people. That's how trust breaks down.
It will be interesting to see how willing we are to transform our supply chain now that this vulnerability has been demonstrated. I keep hearing "we'll move it to India" but that's not really a secure solution either.
If you're interested in not purchasing Chinese manufactured goods....
Check here if products are made in the USA, Canada or Europe so you can buy responsibly: (https://chinanever.com/)
If you're interested in not purchasing Chinese manufactured goods....
Check here if products are made in the USA, Canada or Europe so you can buy responsibly: (https://chinanever.com/)
Great resource. Wondering what we'll do for computers if things ever go sideways with China when the only other source is China's number one target.
WickerBill
05-22-20, 08:17 AM
Great resource. Wondering what we'll do for computers if things ever go sideways with China when the only other source is China's number one target.
One of the biggest issues my clients were encountering during the beginning stages of this situation was they wanted to make mass purchases of laptops to send workers home - but the supply chain... i.e. China... was totally broken. HPE was quoting end of July for delivery dates.
And for those saying, "We'll just move production to India," there's this.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/india-and-china-on-high-alert-over-escalating-border-tensions/ar-BB14pZ6F
Of course Apple, HP, and the rest can make their widgets where-ever they want. But any sane government that serves its constituents would require essential goods that they purchase or finance to be produced in a safe location.
Well, one post-COVID consideration that we didn't cover was that the whole thing just explodes and burns to the ground. I hope you're all safe and well.
I had been looking forward to when the coronavirus no longer dominated the news.
2020. The next 7 months can’t come quick enough
TravelGal
06-01-20, 07:04 PM
I had been looking forward to when the coronavirus no longer dominated the news.
2020. The next 7 months can’t come quick enough
:thumbup:
What's the curfew where you are? They just moved ours up from 6 PM to 5 PM.
indyfan31
06-02-20, 02:27 PM
:thumbup:
What's the curfew where you are? They just moved ours up from 6 PM to 5 PM.
TravelGal, I think that was mistake. The 5 pm curfew was meant to only go out to residents of Glendale.
I'm not under a curfew. Are the curfews working? I doesn't appear it did in NYC last night. How about other localities?
I'm not under a curfew. Are the curfews working? I doesn't appear it did in NYC last night. How about other localities?
Curfew has greatly calmed things here but it is combined with bringing in the National Guard. The police are clearing areas at curfew and then the National Guard secures those areas. The police are freed to move on to the next area and respond to calls.
Now that the dust has cleared it seems like our bidness leaders are getting cold feet on a major transformation. Lots of talk about how important a physical presence is, etc, etc. Honestly I think some of our more outgoing, social leaders are putting the damper on what could be a major opportunity to improve the economics of our business and improve become more competitive for human resources by offering a new type of work/life balance. I think some managers also have trouble being confident in their contributions without a physical presence in meetings all day.
We're still evaluating and my branch is still advocating for a hotelling arrangement but it feels like we're swimming upstream at this point.
datachicane
07-16-20, 03:03 AM
Well, I'm more than a bit more circumspect at the prospect of telework becoming the rule.
I work in IT, and as there's not much that my job entails that requires my physical presence, I've been authorized to work remotely for years. The problem is that it's nearly impossible to maintain the sort of traditional work/home boundaries that I find necessary for good mental health. Working on a thorny logic problem near quitting time? Surprise, it's 10:30PM, and you've ignored your family for another evening. Remembered an email you forgot to write while watching a movie with your family? This will only take a second. Have a brainstorm at 2AM? I'll just remote in and write a bit of code. The ease of transitioning between home and work means that you're never really home, not fully anyway. If I were a 25 year old kid working for a startup, it wouldn't be a problem, but I'm not. Aside from the toll on my family, when it's time to go to work in the morning I'm no more relaxed or recharged than I was when I got off work.
After struggling with this for a year or two while my daughter was quite young, I finally had to impose some strict self discipline- home was for emergency breakfix only, no routine work, period. I have to go somewhere else- to the coffee shop, to the park, maybe one of my offices (I have several scatter across town, long story)- to maintain that separation.
What seems like a great savings in time and effort ends up being a nightmare soul suck. I'd rather be required to show up every day in a suit and tie than do full-time telework from home, and I hate ties.
opinionated ow
07-16-20, 08:50 AM
Well, I'm more than a bit more circumspect at the prospect of telework becoming the rule.
I work in IT, and as there's not much that my job entails that requires my physical presence, I've been authorized to work remotely for years. The problem is that it's nearly impossible to maintain the sort of traditional work/home boundaries that I find necessary for good mental health. Working on a thorny logic problem near quitting time? Surprise, it's 10:30PM, and you've ignored your family for another evening. Remembered an email you forgot to write while watching a movie with your family? This will only take a second. Have a brainstorm at 2AM? I'll just remote in and write a bit of code. The ease of transitioning between home and work means that you're never really home, not fully anyway. If I were a 25 year old kid working for a startup, it wouldn't be a problem, but I'm not. Aside from the toll on my family, when it's time to go to work in the morning I'm no more relaxed or recharged than I was when I got off work.
After struggling with this for a year or two while my daughter was quite young, I finally had to impose some strict self discipline- home was for emergency breakfix only, no routine work, period. I have to go somewhere else- to the coffee shop, to the park, maybe one of my offices (I have several scatter across town, long story)- to maintain that separation.
What seems like a great savings in time and effort ends up being a nightmare soul suck. I'd rather be required to show up every day in a suit and tie than do full-time telework from home, and I hate ties.
Exactly. Mind you, it is very hard to teach someone to fly an aeroplane from your bedroom!
I can't see it being a thing because so much of how things work is that physical interaction. It's hard to make judgements when you only hear half of a conversation over the internet or a phone line. It's hard to physically enact something when everyone is in 45 different locations instead of one. Some folks it will work for, but the vast majority of jobs it doesn't. Plus, for many people, that work time interaction with people is their only social occasion outside of their home life
I've worked from home for 25 years now. After the first 5, we moved to a larger house so that I could have a dedicated workspace. From the beginning I had a dedicated phone line (as well as a fax, remember those?). Being in sales, my interaction with prospects was either on the phone or in their office. So my home was my base for clerical work and also to orchestrate the sales cycle. I wasn't really part of a work team, per se. For the past 10+ years I've been a consultant. Essentially the same demands on my office space but its more modern now. Vonage as my phone, internet for everything. For the past several months it has been a struggle as my clients are all working from home and they do not have the necessary infrastructure to make it work (phone, workspace, even bandwidth). Cell phones are convenient but seldom provide crystal clear audio. My first recommendation for someone considering WFH is to install a dedicated phone line. Use your cell only as a fall back or when traveling. When your main source of interaction is a phone, make sure it provides a high quality connection.
I enjoy the lack of interruption but did miss the camaraderie provided in an office. I got over that pretty quickly. I realized quickly that WFH can be the biggest scam ever pulled on employees because you can ALWAYS be at work. So, you have to put boundaries on yourself. Fortunately, when I do need to complete a project, I can break for dinner and work a few hours later. Or on a Sunday night, never having to go back to the office. It works for me. It won't for everyone, but for me, I prefer it.
Setting boundaries and having a good workspace are definitely an important part of being able to work from home remotely. It's not for everyone. But where it works it can be a big win.
I guess the occasional work into the evening doesn't bother me that much because I'm getting back an average of 90 minutes a day just in commute time. Unless I have real problems knowing when to clock out that's still a big net positive.
datachicane
07-19-20, 04:21 PM
Yeah, a big commute or a different kind of work schedule would definitely alter the math. I live in the city less than a mile away from the office, and the kind of work I do generally doesn't require any particular schedule (2AM is just as good as 2PM), and there's no defined stopping point on the kinds of big construction projects I often work on. If it were the kind of job where the bulk of activity had to happen between 8 and 5, that would be radically different for me, anyway.
datachicane
07-28-20, 06:23 PM
How the heck do folks cope with this?
It's hard enough trying to maintain given the current environment, but my well-meaning, well-educated, but elderly parents are spamming the heck out of me with Stella Immanuel videos. This isn't political, and frankly, if pointing out the fact that preferring medical advice in the middle of a deadly pandemic from actual medical professionals rather than whackjobs who think vaccines are made with alien DNA and that disease is caused by sex with demons while asleep is political, then ban the heck out of me and I'll take it with pride. The President may be a fan, but this eclipses any political differences we should have as citizens.
I'm at my wits end. My lovely mother is trying to find hydrochloroquine and is now convinced that masks and distancing aren't necessary. The ****'s getting real. This craziness is going to kill them, and any attempt I make to bring them back to reality is diverted into politics. How did we get here, and how do we survive when we allow ourselves to be so willfully blinded? This is not how you beat a pandemic. I'm obviously pretty upset, and I'm sure I'm not the only one in this boat.
People have lost faith in our institutions. The government, the press, the "experts" have all been caught in lies that serve their agenda and not the well-being of the people. I don't mean that as political because it's occurring among all factions. If you're thinking, "Oh no, not my faction," then you haven't woken up yet (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQ1_IbFFbzA).
I was complaining here early on about failure to adopt masks as a precautionary measure. Of course it was never going to be a perfect measure but even if it just saved a few people because someone failed to cover their cough or did cover their cough with their hand and then wiped it on a doorknob it could help. Those few people saved early on would have multiplied geometrically just as the infections do.
Instead they lied ostensibly because they couldn't trust people not to hoard the good stuff. Even though the good stuff was already being redirected from consumers through almost all channels. You can't untell a lie.
People have lost sight of the things that used to bring meaning to our lives. Now crazy dogma from all corners of the political spectrum are being adopted as a new religion where all you do is learn the liturgy, attend the services, and follow the commandments. Oh, and wage jihad.
We have similar challenges with our family who live in a rural area and are not as impacted as we are in the city. When we visit we have to tell them that we're distancing for their sake. Some are skeptical. We respect their right to make a choice as long as they respect ours.
And this is what I don't get about the mask and anti-mask cults. Wearing a mask as a courtesy isn't that big a deal even if you think it's voodoo. Going into a store or enclosed space everyone should be considerate and wear a mask. But just stay away from people. Screaming in someone's face with your mask hanging off because they didn't mask is just dumb. Especially if they're fifty feet away outside.
I have no problem with the concept of wearing a mask indoors but I have an issue. I wear glasses and the various masks I have tried all cause the glasses to fog. I tried a face shield which worked great but that only lasted 1 week as our region recently mandated mask wearing indoors and face shields alone are not acceptable.
Anyone else have fogging issues and found a solution that works?
Thanks.
I have no problem with the concept of wearing a mask indoors but I have an issue. I wear glasses and the various masks I have tried all cause the glasses to fog. I tried a face shield which worked great but that only lasted 1 week as our region recently mandated mask wearing indoors and face shields alone are not acceptable.
Anyone else have fogging issues and found a solution that works?
Thanks.
The masks with the metal strip that you can pinch over the bridge of your nose to seal help a lot, but they're not perfect. Between your breath and the humidity of the summer it's pretty bad when you're coming out of a store and your glasses are cool.
nissan gtp
07-29-20, 10:37 AM
I saw a suggestion to use rain-x on your glasses.
devilmaster
07-30-20, 09:22 AM
I saw a suggestion to use rain-x on your glasses.
isn't the old racing trick to rub tobacco on the inside of the visor?
I saw a suggestion to use rain-x on your glasses.
I thought of that but I'm concerned that the RainX would affect (adversely) the lens coatings, specifically the photochromic coating.
WickerBill
08-01-20, 10:01 AM
I have no problem with the concept of wearing a mask indoors but I have an issue. I wear glasses and the various masks I have tried all cause the glasses to fog. I tried a face shield which worked great but that only lasted 1 week as our region recently mandated mask wearing indoors and face shields alone are not acceptable.
Anyone else have fogging issues and found a solution that works?
Thanks.
What's worked for me is a mask with a "peak" (similar to what you see in F1 - picture below) and then using the nose wire to keep it pressed to the bridge of your nose. If the peak comes up under where your glasses sit, no fog.
It's all about fit, really.
https://thesportsrush.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/McLaren-facemasks.jpg
Here are the F1 masks, available for purchase from the manufacturer. Didn’t check to see if they ship to the US. They are a little pricey, but it appears they will be needed for sometime so it may be worth it.
https://u-maskstore.eu/collections/u-mask-model-2
datachicane
08-01-20, 01:05 PM
A piece of tape, preferably with an easy release, will do it. There's quick release surgical tape that would be perfect for the job.
nissan gtp
08-02-20, 05:32 PM
you can buy the little metal piece to add to your masks (they are self-adhesive). It does help quite a lot.
We need to get used to it, we'll be wearing them for quite a long time
I need one of these.
https://www.leatherhubpatterns.com/listing/828373836/facehugger-mask-pattern-for-leather
1054
Turns out that the post-COVID world looks exactly like the COVID world. Welcome to Lockdown 2: Electric Boogaloo. Great, now we're on an FBI watch list.
We don't seem to have learned anything in eight months. We continue to handle it as though it's a dire risk for everyone when the truth is that the vast majority of people seriously impacted are either 55 and over or have some other significant risk factor.
Shutting everything down puts at-risk individuals out of work, forcing them to make ends meet with "gig economy" jobs that put them at greater risk. It's stupid.
For most younger people, masking and social distancing are probably enough. We need to focus on making it possible for at-risk people to opt-out of the economy for the duration if they want. Give anyone over 55 or with a significant risk factor the option of claiming Social Security Disability for the duration if they will meet certain income and quarantine standards. Take a hint from industry and offer an early retirement package to move at-risk individuals permanently out of the work force. Allow people to qualify for Social Security five years early. This would have the side benefit of opening up a lot of jobs to help stimulate hiring in a post-COVID economy.
This is just brain-storming (or maybe just a light shower). The point is that we need to stop acting like the risk from this disease is spread uniformly across the population and that there are no risks from some of the heavy handed measures we're taking to address it.
devilmaster
11-13-20, 04:10 PM
The real reason we are here again is because yes, humans don't learn. And on a collective I doubt we ever will.
I know we all know this and are all tired of hearing it, but such harsh measures are needed to not to overwhelm the medical system, and destroy the ranks of those who work there. And lets be honest - we don't have years and years of research yet on this disease, and that is the why the best our best have done is only 90% effective.
Humanity had a few decades there of relatively easy living, and normal everyday society got complacent.
I believe I am at risk, having asthma since I was young and i'm overweight. And so, I made an individual decision to stay home as much as I can, wear a mask when needed and try and avoid going out for pointless reasons.
I'm going to do my best to not get overtly political here, but it is part of the discussion - every government of every stripe of every country wasted decades by overspending on s%!t with our taxes when they all needed to have a plan for this, so that people staying home had the ability to at least get some form of money that we all pay into like EI to tide everyone over. I think this will drive some countries to try a universal basic income.
Can we learn from this? Maybe. (i don't hold hope). But experience tells us that after the double whammy of WW1 and spanish influenza (which did stop the Stanley Cup Playoffs back then with the death of a defenceman), humanity was able to have 'roaring' twenties until they once again were roaring so much they didn't pay attention until a regular Tuesday started in October of 1929.
My plan is to stay home, shop properly so I don't go out alot, and make sure I injest multivitamins, especially vitamin D, which more and more research says can help if you get covid.
The supplements are something everyone should be looking at right now. Vitamin D is important for immune health. Many Americans are deficient and the lockdowns are only making it worse. My last blood test showed very low vitamin D levels. I'm taking supplements for D and C as well as zinc, all of which are important for the immune system.
We’ll need more than one vaccine to beat the pandemic
(https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/11/well-need-more-than-one-vaccine-to-beat-the-pandemic/)
Distribution will at best be difficult. Yesterday I received an email from CVS that it will provide vaccinations. No indication if that includes all locations. I hope. There’s going to quite a rush to get vaccinated. The more locations, the better.
If anyone needs me until I get vaccinated, I’ll be in my basement.
TravelGal
11-16-20, 12:09 PM
We’ll need more than one vaccine to beat the pandemic
(https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/11/well-need-more-than-one-vaccine-to-beat-the-pandemic/)
Distribution will at best difficult. Yesterday I received an email from CVS that it will provide vaccinations. No indication if that includes all locations. I hope. There’s going to quite a rush to get vaccinated. The more locations, the better.
If anyone needs me until I get vaccinated, I’ll be in my basement.
Everyone I speak to says they are waiting to get the vaccine. Yet yesterday I read that 3,000 people in the UK have already signed up for the TEST of a vaccine. If anyone wants ME, I'll be waiting six months after general rollout to see if people start growing extra appendages or anything.
I'll be waiting six months after general rollout to see if people start growing extra appendages or anything.
I'm not going to be so quick to get it either.
opinionated ow
11-17-20, 09:26 AM
I'm not going to be so quick to get it either.
me three. I'm not an anti-vaxxer by any means (I count MMR, Meningococcal, Polio etc. etc. as already in my body) but I worry that when they rush these things something may go wrong. Thalidomide all over again
TravelGal
11-17-20, 01:48 PM
Everyone I speak to says they are waiting to get the vaccine. Yet yesterday I read that 3,000 people in the UK have already signed up for the TEST of a vaccine. If anyone wants ME, I'll be waiting six months after general rollout to see if people start growing extra appendages or anything.
Further to this, Royal Caribbean asked for volunteers to be passengers on the trial sailings necessary to get CDC approval to begin regular service. They received 100,000 applications in four days. :eek::eek:
OOW, several of us here have mentioned Thalidomide and even the cases of polio from some early batches of the live vaccine being improperly manufactured at the beginning. I had Shingrix (shingles) and flu shot so far this year but, like you, it'll be a bit until I get this one.
cameraman
11-22-20, 04:29 PM
Of all the vaccines available to humans an mRNA vaccine is the one that I am least worried about. The science behind it is excellent (it lands in the very cool category) & I'll be getting it as soon as I possibly can. The mRNA technology makes it the safest form of vaccine that we have ever had. I wouldn't be surprised to see the flu vaccines switching to the mRNA system in coming years. It would be a hell of a lot less expensive to manufacture and would be easier to tailor to each year's targets. It would eliminate the allergy issues with the current flu shots.
Doctors say CDC should warn people the side effects from Covid vaccine shots won’t be ‘a walk in the park’ (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/23/covid-vaccine-cdc-should-warn-people-the-side-effects-from-shots-wont-be-walk-in-the-park-.html)
Hard Driver
11-24-20, 02:31 PM
If everyone actually did everything to stop the spread, it would die out in a couple of weeks. My daughters friends colleges were able to suppress breakouts. The problem is like everything now, politics seems to override science. Somehow wearing a mask is now a political statement and a protest for freedoms and rights if you don't. No, just don't be an selfish fool and just wear one to help everyone out.
I guess it is like driving down the highway at 100 MPH weaving through traffic. You might make it, you might take someone out with you, or at least hurt someone. Is this your "freedom" being taken away if you are banned from doing that. Not wear a mask and gather in crowds, yea you might not become a spreader, but then again, you may take someone out.
cameraman
11-29-20, 04:01 PM
The side effect stories bug me, you hear the people who had them but don't ever hear from the folks who didn't. I know a stem cell transplant patient who has had the both vaccinations (yes critical needs patients are already getting the shots as part of the trials). The meningitis vaccine was worse. N of 1 but still...
Of all the vaccines available to humans an mRNA vaccine is the one that I am least worried about. The science behind it is excellent (it lands in the very cool category) & I'll be getting it as soon as I possibly can. The mRNA technology makes it the safest form of vaccine that we have ever had. I wouldn't be surprised to see the flu vaccines switching to the mRNA system in coming years. It would be a hell of a lot less expensive to manufacture and would be easier to tailor to each year's targets. It would eliminate the allergy issues with the current flu shots.
That is some very cool stuff.
Extremely simplistically, and probably wrong, you get injected with a "drawing" of a virus, instead of a neutered or dead virus.
cameraman
12-02-20, 01:43 AM
That is some very cool stuff.
Extremely simplistically, and probably wrong, you get injected with a "drawing" of a virus, instead of a neutered or dead virus.
To edit the metaphor, a blueprint of the coat spike protein.
How is it possible to create a safe vaccine in such a short period of time?
Several factors enabled rapid development and testing of vaccines without compromising safety or efficacy.
First, previous research has enabled us to reduce the time necessary to begin developing and testing a vaccine candidate. Advances in vaccine technology have allowed researchers to develop vaccines based only on the genomic sequence of the virus in question (released on Jan 10th). As such, vaccine scientists were able to begin development of vaccine candidates in mid-January, even though the virus was still difficult to obtain at that time.That said, due to global spread of the virus in the following months, laboratories around the world have independently isolated and generated stocks of virus that then could be used to test vaccine efficacy.
In addition, we have considerable existing research on other human coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, that we were able to use to gain rapid insight into SARS-CoV-2. Ordinarily, pharmaceutical companies would wait for more basic research into the novel virus to develop a vaccine with best chances at high efficacy, in no small part due to the high cost of running clinical trials and bringing a vaccine to market. In this case, however, governments around the world were willing to underwrite significant portions of the costs of clinical trials, reducing the financial risk for pharmaceutical companies to develop and produce a vaccine without preliminary data,but heavily leveraging existing research into coronaviruses. These two factors likely reduced the timeline required for vaccine development by months to years.
Second, administrative delays in the vaccine-development timeline were mitigated or outright eliminated during the development of the COVID-19 vaccine candidates. One of the most important such delay is the processing of data and applications between phases of trials or after a trial is complete. For example, just for the formal new drug application stage alone, the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has a target of 8 months to process and review priority applications, with a target of 12 months for regular applications; delays beyond this timeframe are not uncommon, and the new drug application is only one of several intermediate applications that are needed to progress through different phases of clinical trials. By contrast, the applications to progress through clinical trials for the COVID-19 vaccine candidates are being processed and analyzed in a more timely manner by regulatory agencies -- again, shaving unnecessary months to years off the approval timeline.
Third, the nature of the pandemic makes the clinical trials easier to conduct. One of the most difficult and time-consuming tasks for a vaccine or drug candidate is to show superiority over existing drugs or vaccines that are on the market already; however, there were no existing vaccines against COVID-19, so the vaccines simply needed to be tested for superiority over a placebo. In addition, clinical trials often have difficulty enrolling subjects; it normally takes months to years to fully enroll a clinical trial. However, with the number of individuals that wanted to join each of the vaccine trials, enrollment was completed with unprecedented speed. Finally, trials for vaccine candidates often take a long time to complete even after enrollment because many of the pathogens they seek to prevent are relatively rare or regional; as a result, it takes considerably longer for enough infection events to occur, and accordingly longer to be able to determine whether the vaccine is effective. However, in the midst of a global pandemic, infection events are in no short supply, and by sheer numbers, people are infected rapidly in the trials and statistical significance can be reached much more quickly. Again, collectively, these factors reduce the needed timeline by months to years without sacrificing rigor.
Despite this speed, we are still able to effectively judge whether these vaccine candidates will be safe. We have considerable knowledge of the fundamental biology underlying many of these vaccine candidates that allow us to better judge their safety, and after confirmation of their safety, human studies using RNA as therapeutic, both for vaccines, and in other ways to treat diseases are underway since years. Although mRNA vaccine are yet to be approved by the FDA for use in humans (in large part due to low cost-benefit to companies), the molecular biology of mRNA has been studied extensively for decades, and knowledge of the biological pathways involved with mRNA processing and degradation allows us to state with a high degree of confidence that the active component of the vaccine will be degraded quickly and poses no increased risk of causing genetic aberration. (Of note: an infection with the real virus or withany other common cold RNA virus, will generate vastly more viral mRNA in the body's cells than the vaccine carries.) This was borne out in the animal studies of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, which found their vaccines did not cause toxicity in animals and conferred immunity against the virus. In addition, the most prominent vaccine candidates (mRNA and adenovirus vectors) do not contain the whole genomic sequence of the SARS-CoV-2 virus or even an attenuated/inactivated version of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, meaning that they present no risk of actually causing COVID-19.
The trials are also sufficiently long (even with all this streamlining) to be able to catch adverse events that would occur with any significant frequency. Indeed, the vast, overwhelming majority of adverse events after vaccination present within days to weeks of vaccination. For example, the very rare, but one of the most severe possible side-effects, Guillane-Barre syndrome (GBS) almost always arises within 6 weeks of receiving the influenza vaccine; other adverse reactions due to vaccines present similarly quickly or even sooner. This timeframe for adverse events to appear is markedly shorter than the time for evaluation of the vaccine candidates. The FDA, for example, mandated that the subjects in the trial had to be monitored for a median of at least two months before an emergency use authorization application would be considered. This enables regulatory agencies to adequately assess the safety profile of the vaccines. In clear contrast, the viral infection carries significant side-/chronic effects for a large number of people, and without vaccine immunity, at least 50-70% of individuals would be infected without indefinite public health measures.
To summarize, the development of these vaccines has not been this rapid because we have cut corners or sacrificed rigor. Moreso, these trials have progressed at a rapid pace because of pre-existing research and technology that could be leveraged to develop a vaccine candidate quickly, policy decisions to mitigate usual administrative delays, and the impact that rapid spread of a novel pathogen has on the logistics of a clinical trial. Collectively, these factors have comfortably reduced the development timeline by years while still allowing for sufficient assessment of efficacy and safety.
Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/wiki/faq
Interesting stuff.
One of my kids is on a drug trial. It just got FDA approval for some uses, but not exactly for what my kids have (2 of 4). That should have happened by now, but the FDA seems to be a bit busy right now. :)
This drug is going through a modified approval process as well, since it's for an extremely rare genetic condition, about 1 in 250,000.
There wasn't too much trouble finding volunteers for the trial. I really wish that my other kid could have gotten into the trial. They started Phase III testing (efficacy) with 10 people. TEN!
My guess is that it will be very expensive when it becomes prescribable. The drug significantly helps with some of the symptoms.
Not sure if this should be here, or in the Venn diagram post (due to graphing silliness).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-7464500a-6368-4029-aa41-ab94e0ee09fb
Graphs usually make data easier to understand. :laugh:
datachicane
12-09-20, 06:57 PM
Not sure if this should be here, or in the Venn diagram post (due to graphing silliness).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-7464500a-6368-4029-aa41-ab94e0ee09fb
Graphs usually make data easier to understand. :laugh:
Geeze, that's completely awful, almost as painful as arguing with conspiracy-theory enamored relatives on social media.
Geeze, that's completely awful, almost as painful as arguing with conspiracy-theory enamored relatives on social media.
I'm going to use this to fuel those arguments with similarly-minded relatives!
"I mean, it's right THERE in the graph! By the BBC! That's not fake news." Works for any argument. Works for the uncle that won't wear a mask, cause it fogs up his shootin' glasses, and the cousin sitting on the back porch with 7 different masks on her face.
:D
What are the ingredients of Pfizer’s covid-19 vaccine? (https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/09/1013538/what-are-the-ingredients-of-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine/)
Reading the ingredient list is like looking at the side of a cereal box, except that you need a degree in organic chemistry to understand it. We got help from various scientists and biotech entrepreneurs to understand what each of the ingredients does and make some educated guesses about others.
racermike
12-22-20, 04:58 AM
I got laid off from my Job on April 23rd this year.
Its very unfortunate, as being a contract IT worker for 12 years, this was my first "Permanent" position with a great company. I really felt at home there, and there was zero drama or politics. I was there for 15 months before this happened.
Been very difficult to find work, as any positions that open up for my kind of work get 40-60 applicants on average. At least for the first time in my life I am financially stable, and had money saved, as well as taking unemployment (didnt start until August as I did get a 3 month severance package).
After the heart attack last year, I had set a goal to get healthier, and meeting that goal I bought myself my first motorcycle (well .. technically, its a Yamaha XMax 300 scooter, but its as big as the average motorcycle, and verrrrrrrry fast).
Being in high risk category healthwise, I am looking forward to getting the vaccine as soon as I can get it. My PCP is working on getting me onto the list to hopefully get it in January sometime.
devilmaster
01-14-21, 01:12 AM
Hey all,
Just wanted to pass off info...
Young nicole, aka fittinut here and at 7g, has contracted covid.
She is doing as well as can be, symptoms are mild.
She doesn't post here much anymore, but I know most would remember her.
She has been live-storying(?) On Instagram her symptoms and what she's been doing to combat it.
TravelGal
01-15-21, 04:44 PM
Oh dear. About 1/3 of the people I know have it now. Some very bad, some not. I'm glad hers is in the latter category. Give her my best.
TG, but not THAT TG.
Sorry to hear that. Wishing her a speedy recovery
cameraman
02-05-21, 01:45 AM
I can say that the Pfizer vaccine is good for a sore arm the next day. More of an ache than any vaccine that I can remember but it went away by the end of the day. Seems the second shot has much more of a kick to it as I will find out on the 18th...
I can say that the Pfizer vaccine is good for a sore arm the next day. More of an ache than any vaccine that I can remember but it went away by the end of the day. Seems the second shot has much more of a kick to it as I will find out on the 18th...
So does the Moderna vaccine. Got it late Wed afternoon. Sore arm all day Thursday unlike the flu vax I got in Sept. but it lessened as the day progressed. Woke up last night with it aching because I was sleeping on that arm. Today it is almost normal. No big deal. That's the only issue I had. Have a friend who experienced a headache the day following his first Moderna shot. My sister and her husband has had both Pfizer vaccinations. She was down the day after the second. She texted me that she felt like she had been hit by a truck, ached everywhere. Went back to bed. Her husband who is arguably nowhere near as healthy as my sister, didn't experience any issues at all.
...scheduled to get the Pfizer vaccine today, hopefully all goes well. :confused:
If this is correct a post-covid world is not too far away
We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April (https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731?mod=e2two)
opinionated ow
02-19-21, 06:06 AM
If this is correct a post-covid world is not too far away
We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April (https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731?mod=e2two)
I hope so. Here in the People's Republics of Australia and New Zealand the governments don't intend to let anybody in for several years. Hell, we live in a society that locked 6 million people in their houses for a grand outbreak of 20 cases, all of which were already in quarantine. New Zealand went even more mad for 2 cases
cameraman
02-19-21, 04:44 PM
I hope so. Here in the People's Republics of Australia and New Zealand the governments don't intend to let anybody in for several years. Hell, we live in a society that locked 6 million people in their houses for a grand outbreak of 20 cases, all of which were already in quarantine. New Zealand went even more mad for 2 cases
It's a whole lot better than having 493,098 dead people...
It's a whole lot better than having 493,098 dead people...
Australia also shut its borders completely back when the CDC was still claiming that people were more likely to infect themselves by wearing masks. Our own experience with varying State lockdowns suggests that they're not nearly as effective when travel continues unabated.
I believe that when all of the culpable leaders have been replaced by the benevolent Google AI bot, this era will come to be viewed similarly to when Dr. McCoy encountered late 20th Century medicine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_R_WbAhKyAk
In Ohio, 98% of COVID deaths were among those 50 and older. I would bet that a substantial portion of that other 2% had other risk factors. Posterity will view our failure to focus with laser intensity on protecting those most at risk as a kind of gross societal negligence.
This negligence will be one factor when the Google AI bot orders us to the evaporation chambers. That, and the creepy robots thread.
all of the culpable leaders have been replaced by the benevolent Google AI bot,
You think they're going to be benevolent? You're an optimist.
You think they're going to be benevolent? You're an optimist.
There may have been a touch of sarcasm in there. ;) :)
The Places You Can’t Fly to Anymore (https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-places-you-cant-fly-to-anymore-11616248802)
TravelGal
03-23-21, 12:19 PM
The Places You Can’t Fly to Anymore (https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-places-you-cant-fly-to-anymore-11616248802)
As a nonsubscsriber, I cannot see which locations they quote. The study was done on February 28. From Monday, March 22 ARTA E-News: TravelMole reports ... American Airlines is rebuilding its transatlantic schedules to the UK and Europe. It is restarting ten routes in anticipation of a travel recovery of sorts for the summer season. It includes Barcelona, Dublin, Frankfurt, London Heathrow, Madrid, Milan, Paris Charles de Gaulle and Rome. It is also launching a Seattle-London route. From Tuesday, March 23, ARTA E-News: Caribbean Journal reports Delta Air Lines is relaunching six of its Caribbean routes beginning June 5.
That's the good news. The bad news is that some European countries are facing another wave of infection and the price of fuel is rising.
Sorry. All of it was available just the other day, now it’s not.
A totally amazing and quite encouraging 60 Minutes report on the government’s efforts to fight not only this pandemic but all in the future. Very uplifting.
Military programs aiming to end pandemics forever (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/last-pandemic-science-military-60-minutes-2021-04-11/)
Related to above
Removing the Viral Threat: Two Months to Stop Pandemic X from Taking Hold (https://www.darpa.mil/news-events/2017-02-06a)
After a years worth of talk about how many of us may not return to a traditional office ever again our management has punted and declared that everyone will be in the office at least three days a week. Ugh. What a failure of leadership.
In spite of all the input that they gathered over the last year indicating that people felt just fine about sustaining workplace culture in a hybrid environment, they've cited culture as the primary reason for enforcing a one-size fits all edict across the organization.
My feeling is that it's a combination of milquetoast managers who don't want to have a grown-up conversation with their employees who have to be on campus about the fact that different jobs have different requirements and micromanagers who hate letting their people out of their sight.
The result of this is that we're adding the expense of supporting remote work for everyone while not reaping any of the potential cost savings by having some people fully remote. Previously maybe 20% of the workforce was supported for some amount of remote work.
Rumor has it that four or five folks bought new homes a couple of hours away based on the expectation of remote work. Maybe not prudent. :gomer:
opinionated ow
07-01-21, 06:33 AM
Meanwhile in Australia:
*Sydney is in lockdown over less than 200 cases over 2.5 weeks
*Brisbane is in lockdown over 40 cases over 3 weeks
*Darwin is in lockdown over 5 cases in 1 week
*Perth is in lockdown over 3 cases in 1 week
*Alice Springs is in lockdown over 0 cases
I'd rather be in the USA. But of course, I am not allowed to leave. Like, literally.
If I wanted to go overseas and I was lucky enough to have a bureaucrat approve it, I'd better be ok to spend years away because they won't let you back in. And if you are lucky enough to get back in (even if you're fully vaccinated) you have to spend a fortnight in a hotel room at the discretion of a State Premier (often the rooms have no windows or balconies). And if you're super unlucky you end up being released from your hotel prison into a state that you don't live in and if you're allowed back into the state you came from (and I genuinely mean IF), you're probably spending another fortnight at the pleasure of a different state's Premier in yet another windowless hotel.
Let Australia and New Zealand be examples of health technocracy for the world.
Kiwifan
07-01-21, 04:52 PM
Let Australia and New Zealand be examples of health technocracy for the world.
Oi, don't drag us into it. ;) Apart from the initial 4 week lockdown and a couple of localized Level two stints and maybe a Level 3 stint we have been free to do what we want other than maybe masking up on public transport.
I haven't stayed in either countries MIQ but have talked to people who have and not trying to stir things up but there is quite a difference in the quality of rooms. I have stayed at the Sudima in Christchurch on numerous occasions and the Novotel Auckland airport on several occasions and we are talking 4 and 5 star. Maybe all MIQs aren't all up to those standards but some of the stories I have heard about the Aussie MIQs...
Anyhoo, booked to come over and see you lot in November all going well. Sadly our cruise around Aus has been canceled but you are worth a visit anyway. :D
Take care mate.
WickerBill
07-02-21, 09:13 AM
One of the underpinning pieces of knowledge of all coronaviruses thus far is that they cannot survive in the presence of UV light.
So therefore, super idea. Put people who you "suspect" of having a coronavirus in rooms without windows and balconies. Forbid them from being in sunlight.
Methinks this situation has very little to do with health...
opinionated ow
07-03-21, 03:51 AM
One of the underpinning pieces of knowledge of all coronaviruses thus far is that they cannot survive in the presence of UV light.
So therefore, super idea. Put people who you "suspect" of having a coronavirus in rooms without windows and balconies. Forbid them from being in sunlight.
Methinks this situation has very little to do with health...
It definitely seems to be the case. Also, whether you are or not vaccinated doesn't matter either. We currently have the Aussie Rules and Rugby League competitions going with people flying around the country without issue. The Netball competition has been stuffed around now because the Sydney teams were in QLD and were forced to Quarantine up there and then when Victoria where they were due to play next introduced their own quarantine issues, the VIC government refused an exemption so they're now locked up for their 2nd and 3rd weeks. None of them have been with anybody outside their bubble. Some of the players are mothers and have their children with them who are now for the 3rd week locked in hotel rooms. This country is actually so insane at the moment that it makes the EU look functional.
I'm envisioning a remake of Mad Max where all the pursuits are because someone broke COVID quarantine.
RaceGrrl
07-04-21, 02:53 PM
I'm envisioning a remake of Mad Max where all the pursuits are because someone broke COVID quarantine.
I'm envisioning the title: "Mad Mask".
WickerBill
07-04-21, 06:47 PM
I'm envisioning the title: "Mad Mask".
*golf clap* *affirming nod*
Excellent.
Who knew that Lord Humungus was just ahead of the curve on masking.
opinionated ow
07-28-21, 11:21 PM
Up to my 5th week in lockdown with at minimum another 4 to come. Not allowed to go to work. Not allowed to go more than 5km from my house. Now I can only exercise if I wear a mask. If I don't wear a mask to go to the letterbox or put my bins on the kerb, it's a $500AUD fine. Strictly speaking if I go into my backyard and hang the washing on the line without a mask it is illegal. Everything is shut up. As a single, I'm not allowed anybody to visit nor can i visit anybody under any circumstances. The government promised yesterday some sort of convoluted singles arrangement but then failed to gazette it (which is the legal procedure required before any legislation can be enacted). The Police Minister allocated dozens of police detectives to try and find and prosecute every single person who dared protest these policies last weekend. Welcome to the Medico-Fascist state of New South Wales
cameraman
07-29-21, 06:37 PM
Not so post- anymore.
We're back in masks full time throughout the entire Medical campus instead of just within the hospital itself.
This idiot state managed 1114 new cases yesterday and it's ~90% delta. Utah ain't big so 1114 is a lot.
Nothing like going backwards at full speed:flaming:
pfc_m_drake
07-31-21, 05:28 PM
If Delta follows the trajectory it did in India and the UK, then it's going to be a painful 2 weeks or so, then the worst should be behind us. Even here in the COVID hotbed of Florida, all the articles I read maintain that the biggest problem remains with the unvaccinated (Pandemic of the unvaccinated, if you like to buy into the popular narrative). But, despite the rise in cases, pretty much all the stories I read claim that we still have hospital capacity, and we're managing.
Fingers crossed that this is almost over.
...and then we have to hope a more virulent variant doesn't evolve. :irked::mad::flaming:
datachicane
08-05-21, 07:00 PM
...and now, with the vaccine readily available to all, it's largely the stupid that's killing folks, not the virus.
...and now, with the vaccine readily available to all, it's largely the stupid that's killing folks, not the virus.
Stupid or…..
WEST LAFAYETTE MAYOR CALLS THE UNVACCINATED 'A**HOLES' (https://www.wlfi.com/content/news/Mayor-Dennis-calls-the-unvaccinated-holes-575023411.html)
Maybe both!
Given that risk for vaccinated people is no greater than the flu risk that we've all accepted forever, isn't that their choice to make? I think people who smoke, drive around without seat belts, and motorcyclists without helmets are idiots, too. But that's their choice.
If the development of variants is such a huge risk that we need to start vilifying people for their personal choices then we should close the borders and implement Prison Planet Australia style quarantine protocols because historically carrying pathogens from one place to another is a bigger factor in the development of variants than localized populations.
I have an employee that has risk factors that he's been dealing with his entire life. He is otherwise healthy and would be considered low risk, but there's essentially zero knowledge of the interplay of the vaccines with his other risk factors. He spoke with his doctor and has decided not to get vaccinated until there is research available. Is he stupid? No, and he knows much more about his risk factors than I'll ever know.
I know that those epithets here are probably aimed primarily at the crazy conspiracy theory arm of the unvaccinated, but do you extend it to ordinary people who just don't like the idea of taking an experimental vaccine with no accountability? Because if that's not a valid concern then we've killed a lot of people over the years waiting on a lot of testing and research that turns out not to be so important after all.
I just think that a lot of the broad brush painting I see going on in the media is very harmful to everyone involved and serves nobody but our elitist overlords.
I thought it was interesting that an elected official would call his constituents a**holes. There are quite a few of them, evidently.
According to the Indiana State Health Department's website, there are more than 26,500 unvaccinated people in West Lafayette.
The next election might be interesting to follow.
Here's another take on it.
A Call For Help (https://www.profgalloway.com/a-call-for-help-2/)
Enough already. Federal law should require any citizen who wants to cash a government check, use public transport, or enter a place of business to show proof of vaccination.
I don't always agree with the Professor, but he is always an interesting read.
WickerBill
08-06-21, 03:36 PM
Everyone who can be vaccinated should be. Everyone who can't be should be on a sporadic ivermectin treatment regimen.
However -
You start down the exasperated, scared-shiftless "enough already" route, and you start giving repugnant politicians new powers that you will never recoup. And perhaps you're giving those powers to "the good guys" in your mind (whichever side you're on), but in two years, or four years, or six years, you realize the other side now has those powers to make people show papers, do as they're told...and suddenly, it ain't so fun.
I'm riding a fine line on the "no politics" rule here, because IMO I'm not cheering either side. They're feckless, almost every single one. I don't wish to give them the mandate or the precedent to make people show documents to move about, regardless of their supposed "side".
My two copper discs.
datachicane
08-06-21, 07:55 PM
Given that risk for vaccinated people is no greater than the flu risk that we've all accepted forever, isn't that their choice to make? I think people who smoke, drive around without seat belts, and motorcyclists without helmets are idiots, too. But that's their choice.
This is absolutely key. We're not talking about the risk for vaccinated folks, who, as you rightly point out, face very little risk from either the vaccine or the virus. We're also not talking about the risk that unvaccinated folks take on themselves, either, despite all the pathetic "I'm not afraid!" posturing. We're talking about the risk that folks who actively choose to be unvaccinated impose on others, and that is not acceptable. Forget about smoking, seat belts, or helmets- we're talking about arguing that your personal liberty is somehow infringed on by the requirement that you have functioning brakes. When you have the choice to be vaccinated and choose not to, you endanger the lives of those who would be vaccinated that can't, and further endanger the lives of anyone else who relies on our overwhelmed medical system when your sorry, ignorant ass and those of your friends take up space they didn't have to.
My fully vaccinated mother-in-law has been waiting for five days now for a bed to open up so she can be treated for congestive heart failure. We're not at all certain she's going to make it, even though it's a completely treatable condition under normal circumstances (my mother went through something very similar over thirty years ago, and is still going strong), all because some asshat decided Youtube was as good a source for medical information as any.
I have two good friends who are RNs who haven't seen daylight in a year, and the number of folks who have burned out or left the field mean that their pain continues to get worse, not better. There are critical shortages of healthcare workers all over the country, and it's dang hard to blame them.
This ain't about politics, and it sure as heck isn't a judgement call. Be stupid, kill people, it doesn't take a degree in logic to chart that one out.
Everyone who can be vaccinated should be. Everyone who can't be should be on a sporadic ivermectin treatment regimen.
:rofl:
These geniuses have been convinced to pass on the vaccine and raid rural farm stores so they can suck down “sheep drench” and take swine injections. (https://www.thedailybeast.com/demon-*****-doctors-new-bogus-cure-has-covid-truthers-eating-horse-paste)
Thanks to a dubious study of ivermectin, a drug used in humans to treat parasites like scabies, cranks have seized on the drug as the new solution to coronavirus prevention and treatment.
This is absolutely key. We're not talking about the risk for vaccinated folks, who, as you rightly point out, face very little risk from either the vaccine or the virus. We're also not talking about the risk that unvaccinated folks take on themselves, either, despite all the pathetic "I'm not afraid!" posturing. We're talking about the risk that folks who actively choose to be unvaccinated impose on others, and that is not acceptable.
You're setting a criteria that can be used to dictate every choice that anyone makes in their life. You've just chosen to ignore all the other bad choices that people make that put them in an ICU bed. Why does someone with concerns about taking an experimental vaccine have any less right to an ICU bed than a lifetime smoker, an alcoholic who burned out their liver, or a junkie on their 10th OD?
My fully vaccinated mother-in-law has been waiting for five days now for a bed to open up so she can be treated for congestive heart failure. We're not at all certain she's going to make it, even though it's a completely treatable condition under normal circumstances (my mother went through something very similar over thirty years ago, and is still going strong), all because some asshat decided Youtube was as good a source for medical information as any.
Very sorry to hear about your MIL and her situation. Wishing her and your family the best.
In Ohio with a 50% vaccination rate, we're at 70% of total beds and 65% of ICU beds, with 5% of those COVID patients. * (https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards/key-metrics/hospitalizations)
In Oregon with a 61% vaccination rate, they're at 73% of total beds and 69% of ICU beds, with 14% of those COVID patients. * (https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/hospital-capacity-in-portland-area-update/ar-AAMZbOo)
Nearly three times the COVID ICU occupancy in state with a higher vaccination rate and less than a quarter of the population density. I don't think you're nearly as qualified to make judgments for others on these things as you think. And that's the problem, even the "experts" are rarely untainted by politics these days. WB is exactly correct in that regard.
Stop pretending like concerns are baseless. If there's no risk then unnecessary FDA red tape has killed thousands, maybe millions over the years waiting on the trials, approvals, and reviews that have been shortcut for these vaccines. If there's no risk then there was no need to shield the manufacturers from liability. And never mind the fact that numerous fully FDA approved drugs have been pulled off the market over the years for serious side effects and deaths.
I believe that under the circumstances it's foolish for the average person not to be vaccinated without a very specific health concern that they have discussed with their doctor. And that's who this decision should be between, each person and the medical professionals that they trust.
Given that this is dancing around politics, this my last comment on this aspect of our new post-COVID dystopia.
datachicane
08-09-21, 01:48 PM
Why does someone with concerns about taking an experimental vaccine have any less right to an ICU bed than a lifetime smoker, an alcoholic who burned out their liver, or a junkie on their 10th OD?
Because the lifetime smokers et al aren't simultaneously showing up in huge numbers and overwhelming our medical system, thereby endangering the lives of others, that's why. Nice whataboutism, though.
In Ohio with a 50% vaccination rate, we're at 70% of total beds and 65% of ICU beds, with 5% of those COVID patients. * (https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards/key-metrics/hospitalizations)
In Oregon with a 61% vaccination rate, they're at 73% of total beds and 69% of ICU beds, with 14% of those COVID patients. * (https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/hospital-capacity-in-portland-area-update/ar-AAMZbOo)
Nearly three times the COVID ICU occupancy in state with a higher vaccination rate and less than a quarter of the population density. I don't think you're nearly as qualified to make judgments for others on these things as you think.
Real live public health authorities have repeatedly addressed this, and it isn't that difficult to understand at all. Like other states that locked down earlier and took more significant measures, Oregon successfully reduced the percentage of the population infected, which leaves a larger potential pool for future infections. The dumbasses in Ohio who were determined to kill themselves likely managed to infect themselves a year ago, while the dumbasses in Oregon with a similar bent are just now getting ravaged by Delta. That's the tragedy of this thing- with so much good data and analysis out there, we're still determined to pretend that we don't know enough about COVID to draw conclusions as to how to fight it, when nothing could be further from the truth.
Stop pretending like concerns are baseless. If there's no risk then unnecessary FDA red tape has killed thousands, maybe millions over the years waiting on the trials, approvals, and reviews that have been shortcut for these vaccines. If there's no risk then there was no need to shield the manufacturers from liability. And never mind the fact that numerous fully FDA approved drugs have been pulled off the market over the years for serious side effects and deaths.
I work in a technical field, and I'm sure there are a number of other folks here who do as well. One of the frustrations of working in a technical field is in communicating with clients and customers who have neither the aptitude nor inclination to understand the technical information I work to provide (nor should they have to- that's why I have a job), yet are somehow convinced that their unqualified opinion carries as much weight in the real world as actual information provided by actual subject matter experts. It's even worse when your client approaches the data with a good streak of motivated reasoning. Expertise and competence matter, and no, just because you're bright and have a fast internet connection doesn't mean you're up to debating the facts with folks who actually work in the field. Yeah, all of the deliberate obtuseness and faux-outrage that predictably follows every crumb of information the CDC releases hits close to home for me.
Let's be perfectly clear- the argument here is that some random guy on Youtube is as a valid a source for medical information with critical public health implications as actual career epidemiologists, and that we should really more be respectful of that choice, even if that results in an excess body count that would make Robert McNamara blanche. Spare me the "experimental" schtick- you and I both know that those folks aren't exactly going to line up for their vaccines the day the FDA does give full approval, either. That's how disinformation works- you don't actually have to convince folks that black is white, you just have to sow enough doubt in the good and valid information that they do receive that they toss up their hands and decide Youtube guy is as good a source as anyone, despite the stark difference in the track record of each.
Expertise matters, no matter what a couple of bot farms plaster all over your social media feed. Yeah, their concerns are, in fact, baseless.
I believe that under the circumstances it's foolish for the average person not to be vaccinated without a very specific health concern that they have discussed with their doctor. And that's who this decision should be between, each person and the medical professionals that they trust.
I agree with you completely, although I'd use a stronger word than foolish.
The sad thing is that there's nothing at all political about public health, outside of our tribalist impulses to get in line with our particular tribal leaders. The need for social cohesion will win over our desire to believe only true things every time, as history makes more than clear.
:thumbup:
I worked in a lab for 30 plus years, talking about scientific stuff with non science people :shakehead:
Why on earth people would question the worlds best epidemiologists is beyond me...:shakehead:
The vaccines, despite not having full FDA approval, have been proven effective in the field, essentially making them no longer "experimental" if anyone insists on calling them that.
Political commentary deleted. The rest is quoted above.
Politics have never been allowed here. I allowed that we were dancing around it, but that wasn't an invitation to jump in the middle of it and splash around.
datachicane
08-10-21, 05:41 PM
That's the pure, frustrating horror of this whole thing- the whole concept that listening to actual qualified subject matter experts is in any way political frankly makes the mind boggle. It's epidemiology, not tax policy, for cryin' out loud. It isn't a judgement call or a matter of opinion. There isn't an alternative to the excellent advice we've been given, no alternative group of equally qualified epidemiologists pushing for maskless antivax bravado. It's no more political than choosing to wash your car with gravel instead of soap, except countless tens of thousands needlessly die hideous deaths when you fark this up. It isn't D vs. R unless we choose to make it so, and god help us if we allow that to happen without pushing back, because that's a fast track right to the thick of the dark ages.
Five years ago I would have sworn that we were smart enough as a society to distinguish plain, old, non-controversial epidemiology from politics. Turns out all you need is a bot farm and a check made out to Facebook to blow that up.
The good news is that we have a team of experts here at OC who make the call on whether threads have become political or not. We appreciate your support.
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