Monza GP - spoilers

[devilmaster]

When you never want it to end.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EhPeVbCXgAES_Cb?format=jpg&name=small

[devilmaster]

And When you never want it to end, part 2.

Thank You. :thumbup::cry:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7cRSABqBjkU

[Pilgrims Drop]

Best race of the season thanks to... some unforeseen events... funny how it always produces fun races to watch when that happens...

Best moment was Bottas complaining about not being able to race without the support of his usual enginemaps... after all of the arrogant statements yesterday about how the ban didn't affect them... I guess the word is Ooops

[Hard Driver]

Great Race, but the announcers peddling reverse order grids half the race was annoying. Congratulations to Grasly, it was a legitimate win, he took the lead and held off the Sainz and Stroll.

[Hard Driver]

Best race of the season thanks to... some unforeseen events... funny how it always produces fun races to watch when that happens...

Best moment was Bottas complaining about not being able to race without the support of his usual enginemaps... after all of the arrogant statements yesterday about how the ban didn't affect them... I guess the word is Ooops

Even Hamilton started having more issues once he caught up to the midfield Renaults.

[pfc_m_drake]

And When you never want it to end, part 2.

Thank You. :thumbup::cry:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7cRSABqBjkUThanks for the memories. :(

[devilmaster]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z9ZA2wa9h4o

[WickerBill]

Quick thoughts:

- What a fun second half of that race.
- The camera angle that showed LeClerc's wreck live was terrifying
- I'm so sick of hearing David Croft preach about his pet ideas just because something good happened. His reverse grid / reverse grid qualifying sprint race drum he's been banging is getting seriously old. Nobody ever brings up to him the cost in damaged cars by putting ALL the fast guys at the back (not just some). It's like he owns carbon fiber stock.
- It makes me almost deliriously happy - not just that Gasly won, but imagining Helmut Marko grinding his teeth. Aaaahahaha.
- Loved seeing Sainz getting congratulated by Alphatauri and Renault... everyone seems to have liked working with the guy. Shame where he's going next.
- Bottas is a problem. I'm sorry. I know he's a really nice guy. But he's not a racer. He's a good qualifier, he's fast when he's alone, but when's the last time he really hunted someone down and passed them? Someone who he wasn't clearly 2sec a lap faster than? He is literally the least racy guy on the grid, in my opinion.
- Races with Kravitz are so much more enjoyable than races with Chandok. Ted is a quirky journalist who loves F1 and talks like a fan, and Karun is (yet another) ex driver constantly talking about what he thinks instead of what he sees and hears - even though that specific role is all about what you can see and hear. More Ted!

[devilmaster]

The odds on this podium, according to some book, was 166,990 to 1.

And someone won the bet. :eek:

https://wtf1.com/post/someone-actually-placed-a-correct-bet-on-the-monza-podium-finishers/





[edit] ok. thinking about this. (and its been a long time since probability class in high school)
How many possible combinations can you have for top 3 with a 20 car grid? 20^17?

[pfc_m_drake]

The odds on this podium, according to some book, was 166,990 to 1.

And someone won the bet. :eek:

https://wtf1.com/post/someone-actually-placed-a-correct-bet-on-the-monza-podium-finishers/





[edit] ok. thinking about this. (and its been a long time since probability class in high school)
How many possible combinations can you have for top 3 with a 20 car grid? 20^17?

C(20,3) = 20!/((20-3)!*3!) = 1,140
(if I did the math right)

[TravelGal]

C(20,3) = 20!/((20-3)!*3!) = 1,140
(if I did the math right)

Looks right to me. Bwaahaaa. Sorry, couldn't resist (as someone who gave up after 1 semester of college math). Agreed with everyone here. What a race. I was on the edge of my seat for the last dozen laps. How sorry I was that the crowd wasn't there for Gasly.

[devilmaster]

C(20,3) = 20!/((20-3)!*3!) = 1,140
(if I did the math right)

Ok, thats alot smaller than I thought... Now heres the wierd deal... the bet was only 20 cents euro. (about a quarter US.)

If your math is right, then its not unheard of to bet every combination, every race, and then hope for a wacky race to make it payoff.

1140*.25=285. 285*20(regular race season)-5700.

Its almost a given that there will be at least -1- wacky race a season, and he won 33000 euros because of it. If the book allows odds as silly as 166990 to 1, you almost guarantee the bettor will win money over the long haul.

[pfc_m_drake]

Ok, thats alot smaller than I thought... Now heres the wierd deal... the bet was only 20 cents euro. (about a quarter US.)

If your math is right, then its not unheard of to bet every combination, every race, and then hope for a wacky race to make it payoff.

1140*.25=285. 285*20(regular race season)-5700.

Its almost a given that there will be at least -1- wacky race a season, and he won 33000 euros because of it. If the book allows odds as silly as 166990 to 1, you almost guarantee the bettor will win money over the long haul.I *think* the issue is that you needed to predict the *exact order* of the podium. In which case the combinations are then:

C(20,3) * P(3,1) = 1140 * 3!/(1!) = 1140 * 6 = 6840 which seems to make a bit more sense.

P(3,1) because there's 6 different ways any 3 unique guys can 'win' a podium.

[pfc_m_drake]

Looks right to me. Bwaahaaa. Sorry, couldn't resist (as someone who gave up after 1 semester of college math). .LOL. It's atually not so hard (honest).

[devilmaster]

I *think* the issue is that you needed to predict the *exact order* of the podium. In which case the combinations are then:

C(20,3) * P(3,1) = 1140 * 3!/(1!) = 1140 * 6 = 6840 which seems to make a bit more sense.

P(3,1) because there's 6 different ways any 3 unique guys can 'win' a podium.

ok... so now.... 6840*.25 = 1710. 1710*20=34200.

So still, this past race broke them even for the season, anything above is gravy. Kinda wierd that any book would allow anything near 166000 to 1 odds.

[pfc_m_drake]

ok... so now.... 6840*.25 = 1710. 1710*20=34200.

So still, this past race broke them even for the season, anything above is gravy. Kinda wierd that any book would allow anything near 166000 to 1 odds.Somewhere in my past I learned...errr....on of my friends told me. Yeah, that's it.

Anyhow, one of my 'friends' once told me not to read too much into the line. The 'line' isn't set based on any actual odds of winning. Rather, the line is 'set' in order to ensure that roughly he same amount of money is being placed on each option. In that circumstance, the house (essentially) always wins.

In our Monza scenario, it may very well have been that the ONLY money placed on that podium was the $0.25 bet in discussion...hence why that particular line got to where it was.

[devilmaster]

I guess my point in all this is not that we should box trifecta bet the entire field, but why any book would allow a line so stupidly player sided that you can discuss the concept of the box trifecta with the entire field.

Or put another way from the viewpoint of the book, a gambler should never be able to bet every possible combination and come anywhere near break even, let alone get ahead. Even the longest of longshots in horse racing hardly ever gets past 99 to 1.

[pfc_m_drake]

There's probably something that we're missing - either in the 'dynamic' nature of how the odds move as more and more money enters into the 'bet' or something in the calculation.

The 'pure math' numbers that I gave above represent the case where everybody has an equal chance of winning - which is not true - and probably gets factored in somewhere along the line.

[TravelGal]

The 'pure math' numbers that I gave above represent the case where everybody has an equal chance of winning - which is not true - and probably gets factored in somewhere along the line.

Since I'm an idea person not a math person :laugh: that is the point I was wondering about. The chances of this particular podium were so remote, I thought that needed to be factored in somewhere.