NFL Playoff Pick'em - Conf. Championship Round

[WickerBill]

Pittsburgh (13-5) at Denver (14-3)

Carolina (13-5) at Seattle (14-3)


Pick'em folks, who is going to the Super Bowl?

[Wheel-Nut]

Pittsburgh

Seattle

[Lizzerd]

Denver

Seattle

[Stu]

Seattle (I would have picked Carolina but Jake's fruity dance at the end of the game yesterday bothered me too much.)

Denver

[Dr. Corkski]

All Jake Superbowl.

[racermike]

Its the Beard Bowl in Denver next sunday (Ben/Jake both have never heard the word "norelco")

[Don Quixote]

Pittsburgh

Seattle

[racer2c]

Denver

Carolina

[rabbit]

Pittslesberger

Carolina

[Classic Apex]

Pittsburgh

Seattle

[Andrew Longman]

Want Pittsburgh, figuring Denver

Want Panthers, figuring Seattle

Anyone know if Alexander will play given his concussion? How about Peppers shoulder?

[Sean O'Gorman]

Seattle
Pittsburgh

[EDwardo]

Stealers
Seahooks

:confused:

[cartgal]

Well, I wasn't overly confident in my last round o'picks -- but 0 - 4?!?!? :rofl: Sheesh. Guess no one would want to go with me to Vegas....

So here's my "enlightened" picks for Championship round:

Pittsburgh

Carolina

[Lizzerd]

Well, I wasn't overly confident in my last round o'picks -- but 0 - 4?!?!? :rofl: Sheesh. Guess no one would want to go with me to Vegas....

So here's my "enlightened" picks for Championship round:

Pittsburgh

Carolina

0-4? Then I'm glad I already picked the opposite! :D

[nrc]

Denver
Seattle

[Car-B-Q]

colorado horses & carolina cats

[dando]

The Super Bowl is Sunday @ 3....

There will be two Ss in Super Bowl this year.....Steelers and Seahags. Mark it down, take it to the bank, stone cold lead pipe lock.....or something to that effect.

YMMV.

;)

-Kevin

[Cam]

felines and stoopid :saywhat: peeps that make a living in a mine....
Steelers
...

[Ankf00]

http://i.cnn.net/si/si_online/covers/images/2006/0123_large.jpg

[Winston Wolfe]

http://i.cnn.net/si/si_online/covers/images/2006/0123_large.jpg


SI Cover jinx.

Cats n' Nags. Bring it.

[racermike]

Carolina aint gonna do jack with no running game (now that Foster is out)

Gonna have 3rd stringer in there up against the #5 rush defense. Now we can double Smith the entire game.

Seahawks 31, Carolina 13
Pittsburgh 24, Denver 17

[Insomniac]

Carolina aint gonna do jack with no running game (now that Foster is out)

Gonna have 3rd stringer in there up against the #5 rush defense. Now we can double Smith the entire game.

Seahawks 31, Carolina 13
Pittsburgh 24, Denver 17

Better hope no one makes Steve Smith mad. He's been unstoppable.

[rabbit]

http://i.cnn.net/si/si_online/covers/images/2006/0123_large.jpg
Awwww, %*^&! :flame:

As a Browns' fan, I must say I am really torn about the Steelers' success. I watched Ben play football and basketball in high school. You will never meet a nicer kid. People I talk to that still are in regular contact with him say he is still the exact same person he was back then. I'd love to see him pick up a ring. :thumbup:

[Wheel-Nut]

I thought ANK was trying to show us that Ben is a Horns fan.

[rabbit]

I thought ANK was trying to show us that Ben is a Horns fan.Or a Satanist :eek:

[WickerBill]

Problem with the cover jinx this week:

http://i.timeinc.net/subs2/images/si/sistore/products/2006/0123D_mid.JPG


http://i.timeinc.net/subs2/images/si/sistore/products/2006/0123C_mid.JPG


http://i.timeinc.net/subs2/images/si/sistore/products/2006/0123A_mid.JPG


http://i.timeinc.net/subs2/images/si/sistore/products/2006/0123B_mid.JPG


Based on that, I pick the Texans to win the title.

[skaven]

Last year, the Steelers owned the Browns defensive line, but they didn't have Al Wilson, Ian Gold and DJ Williams at LB plus Champ Bailey, Lynch, etc.

As such, I've gotta root for the home team and go with the Broncos.

I think Seattle/ Carolina is a toss up. But I'll take Seattle.

Homgren vs. Shanahan in SB XL.

I am tied for the lead with SOG and Cork at 12 points. :thumbup:

Go Skaven Horde ! ! !

[dando]

I am tied for the lead with SOG and Cork at 12 points. :thumbup:
You guys comparing IQs again? :gomer: :D

:runs:

-Kevin

[skaven]

I'm not saying that, or am I. ;)

However, The Three Kings have all doubled your score. :D

Hope you are wrong about the Steelers, River City Queens that they are.

[tllips]

Carolina

Denver

[WickerBill]

Seattle over Carolina

Denver over Pittsburgh


:)

[chop456]

Seattle
Picksburgh

[Stu]

Cork has Denver and Carolina.

Skaven has Denver and Seattle.

SOG has Pittsburgh and Seattle.



Denver and Carolina - 1. Cork 2. Skaven 3. SOG
Denver and Seattle - 1. Skaven 2. SOG 2. Cork
Pittsburgh and Carolina - 1. SOG 1. Cork 3. Skaven
Pittsburgh and Seattle - 1. SOG 2. Skaven 3. Cork

Of course, someone currently right behind you guys could tie for 2nd or 3rd in any of these situations.

[WickerBill]

Don't forget this round is worth 4 per game and the SB is 8.

[skaven]

In that case, even Dando might still have a chance to win. :eek: :rofl:

[Stu]

Don't forget this round is worth 4 per game and the SB is 8.


Well that wont affect the top 3 that are all currently tied, but it will impact the people right behind them.

[dando]

In that case, even Dando might still have a chance to win. :eek: :rofl:
:p

Ya better lock up dat mini bar Sunday. ;)

-Kevin

[Ankf00]

Problem with the cover jinx this week:

*snip*

Based on that, I pick the Texans to win the title.


2006 Houston Texans, Schedule


2006 TEXANS SCHEDULE
September 14................Taft Junior High School
September 21...............Cub Scout Troop #101
September 28................Houston Blind Academy
October 05.................Spanish American War Vets
October 12................ Crippled Children's Home
October 19............... Montgomery Mental Hospital
October 26................ Girl Scout Troop # 353
November 02.................Texas Venereal Disease Clinic
November 09.................Sugarland Boys Choir
November 16.................Korean Amputees

SPECIAL MONDAY NIGHT GAME
December 08..................Cypress Gay Boys Club

** RULE CHANGES FROM LAST YEAR **
1 - When playing polio patients, the Texans must not disconnect knee braces.
2 - When playing the Blind Academy, the Texans must not hide the football under their jerseys.

** RULES THE SAME FROM LAST YEAR **
1 - A touchdown (this is when the ball is carried over the goal line for all you Texans fans that have never seen this) it is still worth 6 points.
2 - The Texans will be allowed 20 men on the field at all times.
3 - The Texans will be allowed to substitute with band members at anytime.
4 - The Texans will be awarded 10 timeouts as opposed to 3 for the opposing team.
5 - The Texans will be awarded a first down with each gain of three yards or more, instead of the usual ten yards.

** NAME CHANGE **
The Houston Texans will be changed to the "Houston Tampons" as they are only good for one period and have no second string.


Just to clarify folks, this is Texans '06, NOT, I repeat, NOT Purdue '05 :gomer: :D

[skaven]

Ya better lock up dat mini bar Sunday.

-Kevin

Probably miss the first half while, you guessed it, snowboarding at the Beav.

But I'll be at a big boy's bar for the second half. I might watch the second game too and see who gets to get Donkey-fied in the SB. :thumbup:

Speaking of snowboarding and as I have no idea which thread to hijack... ;)

Forgot my helmet and goggles today... got too drunk last weekend to properly stow my gear. I was cruisin' the trees at the Beav listening to my new and first iPod (highjack attempt... foiled) without my helmet and my goggles, a branch ricocheted off my glasses and caught me in my lefteye.

I'm used to having all the small stuff deflected with gear and got carried away with 7/4 (Shoreline) and forgot I shouldn't go flying through branches without a helmet and goggles. After feeling no blood from my left eye, and letting the pain subside for a minute, I can't tell you how relieved I was when I opened my left eye and I could see. :D

Have a bloody scrape on the top of my eye lid within the orbital and less than an inch from my pupil and it throbs mightily. Regardless, day number 19 tomorrow. Have a good weekend all. w00t ! ! !

Go Bronkeys ! ! ! !

(Oh yeah, Sugarland Boys Choir will destroy Reggie Bush on Nov. 9th. Roadtrip. :p And after my near-half-blind experience, the Houston Blind Academy will be my sentimental favorite on September 28th.)

[Ankf00]

heh, BC season is like 2g's, wtf? I mean, spicoli's got the feds on his side... what's your excuse?

Houston Kumars > Houston Texans :gomer:

Jer and I are going to stomp you come March, hope you know how to swim through snow :p

[Stu]

I want to change my pick from Denver to Pittsburgh. Is that allowed since the games have yet to start?

I've picked against Pittsburgh twice on here and they have screwed me both times. Now I hate Pittsburgh so here's hoping my vote jinxes them. ;)

There is also a stat that has a 25% chance of continuing if Pittsburgh wins this year. A stat similar to the madden and chunky soup curse.

[TKGAngel]

Seattle over Carolina

Denver over Pittsburgh.

ETA: Thanks Dando!

[dando]

Denver over New England.
Well, ya gots one right, but wrong week. :gomer:

-Kevin

[Ankf00]

I thought ANK was trying to show us that Ben is a Horns fan.

word.

Wheel-Nut 1
Winston Wolfe 0

:D

(although I do think Ben>Jake in the game)

[dando]

Probably miss the first half while, you guessed it, snowboarding at the Beav.

But I'll be at a big boy's bar for the second half. I might watch the second game too and see who gets to get Donkey-fied in the SB. :thumbup:

This just in....the mini bar threat level has been raised to red from orange. :gomer:

-Kevin

[EDwardo]

see ya later nags.......

[dando]

2-0 :D

I'm favoring the Seahags to win it all @ this point.

-Kevin

[dando]

Cork has Denver and Carolina.

:laugh: :gomer:



SOG has Pittsburgh and Seattle.

:eek: ;)

-Kevin

[nrc]

It amazes me that the Steelers have made the Super Bowl. I just don't think they're the best team in the Division. Thank Kimo Von Olhofen, Steelers fans, because if he doesn't blow Palmer's knee out they're done in the first round. :shakehead

I credit the Steelers for playing well in the playoffs while everyone else choked, but that's about it.

[Ed_Severson]

Just to clarify folks, this is Texans '06, NOT, I repeat, NOT Purdue '05 :gomer: :D

Hey! WTF? :flame:

[dando]

It amazes me that the Steelers have made the Super Bowl. I just don't think they're the best team in the Division. Thank Kimo Von Olhofen, Steelers fans, because if he doesn't blow Palmer's knee out they're done in the first round. :shakehead

I credit the Steelers for playing well in the playoffs while everyone else choked, but that's about it.
Hence why I back the Seahags @ this point. Oh well, what could have been.... :(

-Kevin

[Wheel-Nut]

It amazes me that the Steelers have made the Super Bowl. I just don't think they're the best team in the Division. Thank Kimo Von Olhofen, Steelers fans, because if he doesn't blow Palmer's knee out they're done in the first round. :shakehead

I credit the Steelers for playing well in the playoffs while everyone else choked, but that's about it.

Do you have a label for those sour grapes?! :shakehead How about The Steelers played well when they needed to?

[Stu]

It amazes me that the Steelers have made the Super Bowl. I just don't think they're the best team in the Division. Thank Kimo Von Olhofen, Steelers fans, because if he doesn't blow Palmer's knee out they're done in the first round. :shakehead

I credit the Steelers for playing well in the playoffs while everyone else choked, but that's about it.

You need to look at the two teams a lot closer if you think the Bengals are better than the Steelers.

Both teams finished 11-5 in the regular season. Roethlesburger was injured part of the year, costing the Steelers what should have been a sure win against the Ravens.

The Bengals beat 1 good team all year, the Steelers in Pittsburgh, the 2nd week back from injury for Big Ben. Other than that, the Bengals only beat the teams they were supposed to beat. 3-4 against teams with records > .500 (but 2 of those wins were against Chicago and Minnesota early in the season when they were playing poorly).

Hell, you guys needed a last second field goal to beat my Browns. You think thats good?

[Dirty Sanchez]

unless Palmer plays defense there really is no argument. they allowed 31 points and ~150 yards on the ground.

they were home dogs in the playoffs and lost.

its time to get over it :laugh:

[dando]

The Bengals beat 1 good team all year, the Steelers in Pittsburgh, the 2nd week back from injury for Big Ben. Other than that, the Bengals only beat the teams they were supposed to beat. 3-4 against teams with records > .500 (but 2 of those wins were against Chicago and Minnesota early in the season when they were playing poorly).

The same can be said for the Steeler's. They won against the Chargers and Bengals, but lost to the Ravens. They were the 6th seed for a reason, and, IMHO, not the best team in the AFC. However, they strung together three wins on the road, and are headed to Detroit. Kudos to them. The streak ends in 2 weeks, tho.

-Kevin

[nrc]

Do you have a label for those sour grapes?! :shakehead How about The Steelers played well when they needed to?

Seeing your quarterback taken out on a cheap-shot late hit will sour your grapes in a hurry. If they had played the Bengals straight up and won I'd give them more respect.

The Bengals under Jon Kitna led the Steelers through most of three quarters (better than the one and two seed teams) and I don't have any doubt that Palmer would have put up more points than Kitna.

[Wheel-Nut]

Kimo's actions after the hit lead me to beleive it was not an intentional shot or "cheap shot" at Palmer's knee. Either way all the discussion in the world can't change what happened. I'll leave it at that.

[Stu]

The same can be said for the Steeler's. They won against the Chargers and Bengals, but lost to the Ravens. They were the 6th seed for a reason, and, IMHO, not the best team in the AFC. However, they strung together three wins on the road, and are headed to Detroit. Kudos to them. The streak ends in 2 weeks, tho.

-Kevin


They lost against the Ravens without Ben. They lost against the Colts in the regular season without a healthy Ben. Reference what they did against the Colts with a healthy Roethlisburger last week.

In your oppinion, the Steelers are not the best team in the AFC. However, they beat the rest, in their house. That makes them the best team in the AFC, like it or not.

[Stu]

Seeing your quarterback taken out on a cheap-shot late hit will sour your grapes in a hurry.


LOL, what game were you watching? :thumdown:

[Dirty Sanchez]

homers are funny :laugh:

palmer averaged ~28 points per game during the season (against on-average much weaker teams). this is not counting the last "game" of the season against kansas city where palmer rested.

it might not be a complete stretch to assume palmer would've scored more than kitna, but it's definitely a stretch to assume he would score higher than his season average in the playoffs against one of the strongest teams they have faced all year.

last time I checked 28<31.

there was no cheap shot... and the bengals lost straight up.

[nrc]

LOL, what game were you watching? :thumdown:
Ask Ben Roethlisberger. "From what I heard, he said he got pushed or tripped or something; but anytime you go low on a quarterback, you know it's a little dirty."

Of course Ben was talking about Odel Thurman's failure to redirect his flying body in mid-air after being tripped. By way of comparison, Von Olhofin wrapped his arm around Palmer's lower leg and drove his shoulder into his knee.

[Stu]

"I don't know Kimo personally," Palmer said. "From what I've heard, he's a classy guy. Football is football. I don't think it was malicious at all. He's a guy with a high motor that plays hard and was playing hard.

"It just happened. I don't think in any way he was trying to do anything. It's just part of the game."

[nrc]

Ben says that's dirty. I said "cheap". Late, low, unnecessary. That's a cheap shot. It doesn't mean I think he intended to cripple the guy.

[Dirty Sanchez]

another bengal disagrees:


Several Bengals yelled at von Oelhoffen, who spent his first six seasons in Cincinnati and still counts some of the Bengals as friends.

"Guys were infuriated," right tackle Willie Anderson said. "But I know him. He's not a dirty player. His momentum just kept him going into Carson. It wasn't a dirty play."

it's over, johnny :laugh:

http://eddie.150m.com/rambo2.jpg

[nrc]

it might not be a complete stretch to assume palmer would've scored more than kitna, but it's definitely a stretch to assume he would score higher than his season average in the playoffs against one of the strongest teams they have faced all year.

last time I checked 28<31.

People who think football is math are funny. :laugh: I guess that's why they came up with fantasy football.

Palmer put 38 points up against the Steelers in Pittsburgh in a game where everyone knew that the Division was on the line. But there's more to it than math. Palmer's presence changes the whole game. He's the team leader and a better quarterback in every respect. It's unlikely that he would have had as many turnovers as Kitna and it's those turnovers that decided the game. One more scoring drive and one less turnover turns that game around.

I don't have any doubt that the Steelers are a better team than the Bengals with Jon Kitna at Quarterback. I don't believe they're a better team than the Bengals with Carson Palmer at Quarterback. It would have been nice to have had that proven one way or the other at the beginning of January.

[Dirty Sanchez]

I don't think football is math. its about two teams deciding it on the field. the steelers and bengals did that on January 8, 2006. the better team won and no amount of sour grapes is going to change that. that said, you are fooling yourself if you don't think statistics help tell the story in football. oddsmakers rely on it heavily... its these same oddsmakers that correctly picked pittsburgh as the favorite on the bengals home field. if palmer were out, before the game, the line would've been up around 10 or 11 points. guess what? the steelers would've covered that too :rofl:

people who can't give credit to a more deserving team are funny :laugh:

[Dr. Corkski]

:cry:

You can't go around arguing the Bungles lost because they had to play Kitna instead of Palmer and then turn around and argue that the Steelers weren't affected by having to play Tommy friggin Maddox when Big Ben was hurt. Pittsburgh was the better team and they backed it up after beating the Bungles with wins in Indy and Denver. Even Palmer is over it.

[racer2c]

I don't think football is math. its about two teams deciding it on the field. the steelers and bengals did that on January 8, 2006. the better team won and no amount of sour grapes is going to change that. that said, you are fooling yourself if you don't think statistics help tell the story in football. oddsmakers rely on it heavily... its these same oddsmakers that correctly picked pittsburgh as the favorite on the bengals home field. if palmer were out, before the game, the line would've been up around 10 or 11 points. guess what? the steelers would've covered that too :rofl:

people who can't give credit to a more deserving team are funny :laugh:

If I had a dollar for every time a 'better team' lost a football game I could afford my own Champ Car. Better teams often lose games. Fact.

[Dirty Sanchez]

If I had a dollar for every time a 'better team' lost a football game I could afford my own Champ Car. Better teams often lose games. Fact.not on that day, they weren't. fact.

[Ed_Severson]

If I had a dollar for every time a 'better team' lost a football game I could afford my own Champ Car.

If you're inclined to believe that the Bengals are the "better team" on a regular basis, that might be a true statement.

It's kind of a pointless argument anyway. Over the entire season, the Colts were easily the best team in the AFC, but they don't hand out trophies for that. Pittsburgh was the AFC's best team when it counted. If you really want to stake your claim to a moral victory for September through December, I somehow suspect nobody in Pittsburgh will give a damn.

[nrc]

oddsmakers rely on it heavily... its these same oddsmakers that correctly picked pittsburgh as the favorite on the bengals home field. if palmer were out, before the game, the line would've been up around 10 or 11 points. guess what? the steelers would've covered that too :rofl:

people who can't give credit to a more deserving team are funny :laugh:

People who don't understand point spreads are funny. :laugh:

Point spreads are not intended to pick the better team. They're intended to even the betting action. Unless there's a clear pick the betting action is always going to favor a popular team like the Steelers. The points spread doesn't represent the opinion of football experts, it represents the opinion of the joe sixpack with twenty bucks to lose. If you believe the the points spread indicates the best team you should also believe that McDonalds has the best food.

[racer2c]

If you're inclined to believe that the Bengals are the "better team" on a regular basis, that might be a true statement.

It's kind of a pointless argument anyway. Over the entire season, the Colts were easily the best team in the AFC, but they don't hand out trophies for that. Pittsburgh was the AFC's best team when it counted. If you really want to stake your claim to a moral victory for September through December, I somehow suspect nobody in Pittsburgh will give a damn.

Which goes back to nrc's orginal comment; that being he is surprised that the Steelers have made it to the Super Bowl. There were better teams in the AFC.

[Dirty Sanchez]

People who don't understand point spreads are funny. :laugh:

Point spreads are not intended to pick the better team. They're intended to even the betting action. Unless there's a clear pick the betting action is always going to favor a popular team like the Steelers. The points spread doesn't represent the opinion of football experts, it represents the opinion of the joe sixpack with twenty bucks to lose. If you believe the the points spread indicates the best team you should also believe that McDonalds has the best food.oh yes, I fully understand why point spreads exist. but the vast majority of action doesn't come from homers such as yourself. it comes from people who want to make money on a football game. smart money making decisions don't include betting on your favorite team. most people realize that... including the bookmakers :rofl:

pittsburgh was favored because they're more popular :laugh:

[Ed_Severson]

There were better teams in the AFC.

... before January. Pity the NFL doesn't seem to care too much about that, eh?

[Ankf00]

... before January. Pity the NFL doesn't seem to care too much about that, eh?

Same goes for Palmer not giving a second thought to the manner in which his season ended.

[nrc]

:cry:

You can't go around arguing the Bungles lost because they had to play Kitna instead of Palmer and then turn around and argue that the Steelers weren't affected by having to play Tommy friggin Maddox when Big Ben was hurt. Pittsburgh was the better team and they backed it up after beating the Bungles with wins in Indy and Denver. Even Palmer is over it.

I never argued that the Steelers weren't affected by playing Maddox while Roethlesburger was hurt. It's kind of difficult to speculate on how the season would have shaken out if he hadn't been. If you want to give them a gimme in the Ravens now suddenly the Bengals last two games of the season are meaningful and everything from there is pure speculation.

[Dr. Corkski]

I never argued that the Steelers weren't affected by playing Maddox while Roethlesburger was hurt. It's kind of difficult to speculate on how the season would have shaken out if he hadn't been. If you want to give them a gimme in the Ravens now suddenly the Bengals last two games of the season are meaningful and everything from there is pure speculation.I wasn't referring to you. ;)

[Insomniac]

:cry:

You can't go around arguing the Bungles lost because they had to play Kitna instead of Palmer and then turn around and argue that the Steelers weren't affected by having to play Tommy friggin Maddox when Big Ben was hurt. Pittsburgh was the better team and they backed it up after beating the Bungles with wins in Indy and Denver. Even Palmer is over it.

I wouldn't say beating Denver backs it up...

Too many what ifs. No omne knows what would happen if Palmer wasn't injured. I think most can agree it would bre a much diiferent game than with Kitna, and more than likely better for the Bengals. Palmer could exploit the Steeler's biggest weakness.

[Insomniac]

Which goes back to nrc's orginal comment; that being he is surprised that the Steelers have made it to the Super Bowl. There were better teams in the AFC.

I'm sure a lot of people thanked New England for making so many mistakes and the Refs for gift wrapping points for Denver. :)

[Ankf00]

I wouldn't say beating Denver backs it up...

Too many what ifs. No omne knows what would happen if Palmer wasn't injured. I think most can agree it would bre a much diiferent game than with Kitna, and more than likely better for the Bengals. Palmer could exploit the Steeler's biggest weakness.

I would say going 3-0 on the road in the playoffs, and beating Denver who was undefeated at home all season as well as a 13-3 Indy inside that loud ass dome does back it up

[Dirty Sanchez]

so would I... and I also still say that unless Palmer plays defense the argument that things would be different is moot. The Bengals were 1-4 when allowing 30+ points in a game this season. Fact.

[racer2c]

I would say going 3-0 on the road in the playoffs, and beating Denver who was undefeated at home all season as well as a 13-3 Indy inside that loud ass dome does back it up

Which is why the Steelers are favored for the Super Bowl when they are coming in a sixth seed against the Seahawks who are the first seed.

[Dirty Sanchez]

I thought it was because they had more fans? :gomer:

[nrc]

I thought it was because they had more fans? :gomer:
Not what I said. But I've decided to allow you your delusions. http://www.offcamber.net/forums/images/smilies/tony.gif

[Dirty Sanchez]

who's delusional? me or the guy who still isn't over a game from over 2 weeks ago? :laugh:

[nrc]

who's delusional? me or the guy who still isn't over a game from over 2 weeks ago? :laugh:

That would be the guy who thinks oddsmakers are in the business of picking the best team.

[Insomniac]

I would say going 3-0 on the road in the playoffs, and beating Denver who was undefeated at home all season as well as a 13-3 Indy inside that loud ass dome does back it up

Hey, I'm not saying they don't deserve to be there. They took care of business and are there. They're the best team in the AFC. I'm saying don't use beating Denver as an example of how good they are. Their performance the previous week against New England showed their offense can be shut down and the pass defense had lots of holes.

[Insomniac]

so would I... and I also still say that unless Palmer plays defense the argument that things would be different is moot. The Bengals were 1-4 when allowing 30+ points in a game this season. Fact.

You don't think the Steelers scoring 30 points had anything to do with Kitna being in the game?

[Insomniac]

Which is why the Steelers are favored for the Super Bowl when they are coming in a sixth seed against the Seahawks who are the first seed.

Before the playoffs started, the line was -8 or -9 AFC over NFC. I think #6 vs #1 is reflected in the -3.5 line.

[Dirty Sanchez]

That would be the guy who thinks oddsmakers are in the business of picking the best team.^:gomer:

professional gamblers keep oddsmakers honest, not joe sixpack. you said that "unless there's a clear pick the betting action is always going to favor a popular team like the Steelers." but what you fail to recognize is that favoring a visiting team in the playoffs is absolutely a clear pick! you think they based that on popularity instead of looking at all the objective criteria? while completely discounting cincinnati's homefield advantage? the bengals might be the mightiest team in ohio but around the rest of the league they are recognized as a team that got there by virtue of their powderpuff schedule. pretenders. and when their star went down, you'd expect their defensive unit to step up... instead they allowed 31 :gomer:

besides, the line comes before the action... not the other way around. its based on math, power rankings, injury reports, etc. not popularity :laugh: that's not to say the oddsmakers are always right (and that's why they play the game). but they are right with surprising frequency. at most a line will move by a point or two and that's usually when big pro action comes in on one side. usually the adjustments are a half a point at a time.

in this case they were absolutely right :rofl:

[Insomniac]

That would be the guy who thinks oddsmakers are in the business of picking the best team.

The oddsmakers try to get a line where there are equal bets on both sides, but the line does reflect which team is believed to win straight up.

[Ankf00]

besides, the line comes before the action... not the other way around. its based on math, power rankings, injury reports, etc. not popularity...

...at most a line will move by a point or two and that's usually when big pro action comes in on one side. usually the adjustments are a half a point at a time.

and that's pretty much all that needs to be said about that...

[racer2c]

I can't wait until the tears are streaming down Cowher's face in the post game interview. WAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!! We lost!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! or WAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!! We won! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!

Either way he'll be crying like a baby. Whatta wanker. Always good for a laugh.

[racer2c]

^:gomer:

professional gamblers keep oddsmakers honest, not joe sixpack. you said that "unless there's a clear pick the betting action is always going to favor a popular team like the Steelers." but what you fail to recognize is that favoring a visiting team in the playoffs is absolutely a clear pick! you think they based that on popularity instead of looking at all the objective criteria? while completely discounting cincinnati's homefield advantage? the bengals might be the mightiest team in ohio but around the rest of the league they are recognized as a team that got there by virtue of their powderpuff schedule. pretenders. and when their star went down, you'd expect their defensive unit to step up... instead they allowed 31 :gomer:

besides, the line comes before the action... not the other way around. its based on math, power rankings, injury reports, etc. not popularity :laugh: that's not to say the oddsmakers are always right (and that's why they play the game). but they are right with surprising frequency. at most a line will move by a point or two and that's usually when big pro action comes in on one side. usually the adjustments are a half a point at a time.

in this case they were absolutely right :rofl:


BS. The line is made up of a hundred different things that you aren't privy too.

[nrc]

They don't pick the "best team" they set the line to even the action. The public (and here I mean the betting public including the pros) perception of the quality of the teams is taken into account in that opening line. They're picking the favorite team, not the better team.

What percentage of the time have the oddsmakers picked the winning team in the play-offs this year? By my count less than half. That's even with a lucky break in Cincy and a gimme in Seattle.

The oddsmakers were wrong about the Colts and Broncos being better than the Steelers, but they couldn't have been wrong about the Bengals, according to the logic here.

[Dirty Sanchez]

like I said, that's why they play the game.

but they are right more often than they are wrong. and they don't base the line on which team is more popular (your original comment). but really, keep on trying :laugh:

[nrc]

like I said, that's why they play the game.

but they are right more often than they are wrong. and they don't base the line on which team is more popular (your original comment). but really, keep on trying :laugh:

Yes, they're right more often than not. But then, so am I. Different reasons, though.

I'm sorry that you're having trouble understanding what I posted earlier. I'm sad for you. :(

[Dirty Sanchez]

I'm sorry you haven't recognized that the Pittsburgh Steelers are the better football team two weeks after they proved it on the field. But that doesn't make me feel sad. that just makes me laugh :D

[nrc]

I'm sorry you haven't recognized that the Pittsburgh Steelers are the better football team two weeks after they proved it on the field. But that doesn't make me feel sad. that just makes me laugh :D

Wait, let me check.


Nope, still don't care.